MOSCOW, March 12. /TASS/. Assessing the possibility of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz; US President Donald Trump's decision to launch joint strikes with Israel against Iran has voters at home baffled; and the Iran conflict sends Washington’s national debt surging. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Will Iran mine Strait of Hormuz

Iran is capable of mining the Strait of Hormuz even if its fleet is destroyed, as Iranian servicemen could use high-speed boats, civilian vessels, aircraft, and multiple launch rocket systems to lay sea mines. If Tehran wants to cause havoc on the global oil market, mining will accomplish that aim. Iran doesn’t even need to carry out a large-scale deployment of munitions in the strait's waters to create chaos, simply saying that it has already been mined will be enough to upend markets.

Having a large number of different types of sea mines at its disposal, Iran has the capability to seriously complicate shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Rear Admiral Mikhail Chekmasov told Izvestia. Even a small number of mines can pose a serious threat to both military and civilian ships, the defense official emphasized.

Virtually any civilian vessel, even fishing boats, can be used for mining, military expert Dmitry Boltenkov noted. According to him, Iran also has multiple launch rocket systems with sea mines, which can set up barriers in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz while positioned miles away.

The Iranian Navy has Russian and domestically-made mines in its arsenal, former Pacific Fleet Deputy Commander for Armament Rear Admiral Igor Korolev emphasized. He recalled that there are many different types of mines, noting that "the combined use of mines is dangerous, and just knowing they are there also plays a role."

The Iranian authorities have the means to carry out such an operation, but whether they have the will is another matter, military expert Yury Lyamin told Izvestia. "The question is how determined Iran is to increase pressure on the oil market. It has sufficient capabilities to do so," he said. Lyamin suggests Iran could slowroll the mining. "For example, Iran could mine only part of the strait to demonstrate its readiness for escalation," he explained.

Mining the Strait of Hormuz could take several days, while clearing it would take two to four weeks, Dmitry Kornev, founder of the Military Russia news outlet, told Vedomosti. According to Maxim Shepovalenko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, drones and missiles currently pose a much greater threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz than possible mining.

 

Vedomosti: Could Iran war destroy Trumpism?

US President Donald Trump's decision to launch joint strikes on Iran with Israel has Americans questioning his sanity, as well as their own for supporting him in November 2024, US opinion leaders Joe Rogan and others are saying. Trump's conservative and right-wing critics have almost unanimously condemned the war with Iran. According to a March 11 poll from Real Clear Politics, support for Trump’s foreign policy stands at 41.4% domestically. Against this backdrop, the president is beginning to soften his rhetoric, hinting that the operation will soon end.

Interestingly, CNN reported on March 11 that the vast majority of his fellow Republicans are reluctant to publicly criticize Trump and his strikes on Iran, despite fears of losing voter support ahead of the November midterm elections.

And then there is the MAGA coalition (MAGA stands for "Make America Great Again," Trump's slogan), with Iran threatening to bring it down as influential members such as journalist Tucker Carlson might leave, Vadim Kozlov, head of the domestic political research department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ US and Canadian Studies Institute, told Vedomosti. However, the expert clarified that even amid the firestorm around the new Middle East conflict, Trump is not at risk of losing his core electorate. But for the Republican party, the Iran strikes could seriously hurt them in the midterm elections, especially when combined with other problems, including public dissatisfaction with the administration's economic and immigration policies.

The operation against Iran is a serious destabilizing factor for Trump's coalition, Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, pointed out. He also confirmed that at this stage, the split primarily concerns the leaders of Trump’s coalition, not ordinary voters. According to the expert, Trump believes that the coalition's main task was to get him re-elected, and since this goal has been achieved, the US leader does not see maintaining political alliances with individual, even popular figures as a particular priority. "If the strikes on Iran do not turn into a major military disaster for the US, there will be no real prospect of MAGA supporters turning their back on Trump, including real isolationists," Novikov stressed.

 

Izvestia: US national debt balloons due to Iran war, with global economic repercussions

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has already added about $800 in national debt to each American taxpayer, experts say. In just 12 days of war, America’s national debt has ballooned by $133 billion, with the total debt now approaching $39 trillion, owing to a sharp increase in military spending and an expansion of the budget deficit. According to Pentagon estimates, if the operation continues for 100 days, the national debt could exceed $40 trillion. For Americans, this means higher mortgage rates, loan rates, and gas prices. For the global economy, it means accelerating inflation and slowing GDP growth.

Operation "Epic Fury" costs the US about $890 million per day, Denis Astafiev, founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, said, citing estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "These costs are added to a structural budget deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office has estimated at $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026. However, the shortfall has already exceeded $1 trillion for the first five months of fiscal year 2026 (October-February)," the expert noted.

Unplanned military spending is accelerating the debt’s growth, economist Andrey Barkhota noted. According to him, some weapons have already been transferred to the region, and corporations such as Lockheed Martin are receiving new orders to produce weapons systems.

Interest on the national debt is close to $1 trillion, representing one of the fastest-growing items of budget expenditure, Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at Finam Investment Company, emphasized. At the same time, the pace of debt growth is accelerating. In 2024, the debt grew by about $185 billion per month; in 2025, it grew by $191 billion, Yury Ichkitidze, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, stressed. The government keeps spending more than it is taking in, and the problem is exacerbated by tax breaks for the rich and no cuts in social spending.

The global economy isn’t immune to all this. The increase in the supply of US bonds and the growth in their yields are tightening financial conditions around the world: this attracts capital to the US, so other countries have to raise interest rates, and borrowing becomes more expensive. Meanwhile, escalation in the Middle East is driving oil prices up and increasing global inflationary pressure. As a result, global growth could slow and market volatility could increase, Kabakov noted.

 

Vedomosti: How EU can finance Ukraine bypassing Hungary, Slovakia

Kiev will be able to receive money from the EU, even if Hungary and Slovakia oppose the move, Politico reported. According to the news outlet, other EU countries will first try to convince Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico not to interfere with the provision of a 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine. If the Europeans fail to convince Budapest and Bratislava not to stand in the way, they have a backup plan. The Baltic and Northern European countries could allocate 30 billion euros to Kiev in the form of bilateral loans, which would not require the unanimous approval of all EU member states. This 30 billion euros would allow Ukraine to stay afloat through the first half of the year.

The position of Hungary and Slovakia demonstrates that the EU lacks unity on the Ukrainian issue, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, head of the Baltic Region research group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. While Budapest and Bratislava offer opposition in Europe, Baltic and Scandinavian countries find themselves in a bit of a quagmire. On the one hand, the Baltic states could benefit: Latvia, for example, manufactures large quantities of drones. However, the Baltic states that have agreed to provide bilateral loans to Ukraine depend heavily on EU subsidies for infrastructure, defense, and weapons. Therefore, they cannot simply refuse to sponsor the Ukrainian armed forces, the expert pointed out. If they disagree, they will lose significantly more funds than they send to Ukraine.

The financing of Ukraine is a very important issue for Russia because it determines whether Kiev will receive weapons, Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian Financial University, stressed. It is no surprise that the Baltic states will be at the forefront of these processes, but they do not have significant resources, unlike the countries of Northern Europe. The expert recalled Denmark as an example of a wealthy country that leads in per capita financing of Ukraine. Every Dane has contributed an average of 1,500 euros to Kiev's needs. Although Sweden and Finland lag behind Denmark in this respect, they are also major sponsors of Kiev. Therefore, it would be natural to look for ways to bypass Hungary and Slovakia through the budgets of these countries. If the government in Hungary changes, it will not stand in the way of allocating 90 billion euros to Kiev. According to Trukhachev, the new Hungarian leadership may be willing to support Ukraine in exchange for territorial autonomy for Hungarians in Transcarpathia, whose rights, according to Budapest, are being violated by Kiev. Overall, it would be incorrect to extrapolate the positions of Orban and Fico to Hungary and Slovakia as a whole, as the issue here is specific to these politicians, the expert concluded.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Middle East conflct puts premium on Russian oil

Some Russian oil shipments are now selling at a premium rather than a discount. This refers to the price of the flagship Urals oil grade in Indian ports, Western news agencies reported. The market reacted this way due to the war in the Persian Gulf, which disrupted oil supplies from the Persian Gulf states to the world market by six to ten million barrels per day, according to various estimates. Against this backdrop, the US administration announced a temporary partial lifting of sanctions on Russian oil in March 2026.

Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the premium on Russian oil in Asian ports arose from a supply shortage. Asian refineries found themselves cut off from Middle Eastern oil and began competing for Russian oil, which comes from Baltic and Pacific ports and bypasses the conflict zone. The transport distance for Russian raw materials is also shorter than that of other possible sources of additional supplies, such as oil from the US and Brazil. The route from Russia’s Far East takes three to five days, from the Baltic Sea area, it takes 20 days, and from the Western Hemisphere, it takes 30 to 40 days.

Due to the conflict in the Middle East, marine fuel prices have risen by 30-35%. Experts say oil is becoming more expensive because rising fuel prices bear additional costs. According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, logistics costs have increased as well.

Tyun believes that it's too early to expect a steady discount until freight and risks return to normal, as there will be volatility. The duration of the conflict in the Middle East is the key factor. Andrianov pointed out that Trump's statements about issuing permits to purchase Russian oil will reduce the cost of circumventing sanctions, making logistics cheaper. Conventional tankers may be used to transport Russian oil rather than the shadow fleet.

In his opinion, the premium on Russian oil in buyers' ports may decline somewhat as oil from the Western Hemisphere reaches Asia. However, a significant discount is not expected to return before the end of the conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the situation will return to its previous state. However, if Washington maintains its sanctions relief, the discount could fall to a historic low of several dollars due to differences in raw material quality, the expert added.

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