MOSCOW, March 10. /TASS/. Iran elects slain Khamenei's son supreme leader in defiant move against the US; Trump, Putin hold phone call to talk about easing tensions in the Middle East; and confrontation between Hungary and Ukraine escalates to a new level. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Slain Iranian supreme leader’s son to lead resistance against US

Mojtaba Khamenei has been chosen to succeed his father as Iran’s supreme leader, a defiant move by Tehran against Israel and the United States that signals it will not back down in its confrontation with the two countries, experts interviewed by Izvestia said.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s election as Iran’s supreme leader puts to bed the idea that Tehran will compromise in any way following the killing of its previous leader and choose a figure that the West would find more appropriate, international affairs expert Issa Dalloul said.

The move establishes a tradition of inherited power in the country, where security forces have strong influence, Ilya Vaskin, junior researcher with the Center for the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti.

Iran’s new leadership may turn out to be even more radical and anti-American than the previous one, Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, agreed, pointing to Mojtaba’s strong ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Meanwhile, in Sazhin’s words, internal debates about where Iran goes from here will continue within Tehran's power apparatus, but "this discourse is unlikely to teeter in favor of those supporting softer domestic and foreign policy approaches," the expert noted.

Vaskin dismissed the notion that the new leadership will demonstrate more flexibility in ceasefire talks with the US administration. "The US and Israel have literally killed most of the Khamenei family, launching military operations in the midst of US-Iran dialogue. This leaves little reason for Iran to show willingness for a compromise," the analyst stressed.

When making decisions about Iran, US President Donald Trump will focus on how the military campaign goes, said Vladimir Pavlov, a researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Still, the expert does not not rule out that the US leader could face more pressure at home and from Israel as military and economic costs increase, because the current operation against Iran has so far resulted only in another resistant figure coming to power in Tehran. "This is why Trump insisted the Iranians consult with him about who to appoint as the next supreme leader. The outcome of the military campaign will depend on Iran’s domestic policy and its military capacity," the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Russia could play key role as mediator in Middle East war

The March 9 phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump may open a pathway for easing tensions in the Middle East, said experts interviewed by Izvestia.

Russia has in the past put forward initiatives aimed at de-escalating the situation in the region, particularly with regard to the crisis around Iran’s nuclear program, Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov pointed out. However, the expert noted that it will not be easy for the US administration to exit the conflict given the significant economic losses it has taken, all without achieving the stated goals of its operation.

Dialogue between the presidents may indicate Washington’s readiness to search for a diplomatic way out of the conflict around Iran, Higher School of Economics analyst Yegor Toropov observed. According to him, the very fact that the phone call took place amid the ongoing military operation is a sign that the US is still considering political means to end the confrontation.

US domestic factors are also important in this regard. Toropov emphasized that Trump’s approval ratings had been on the decline lately for economic and other reasons. Now the administration needs to capitalize on a demonstrative foreign policy win in order to strengthen Republican positions ahead of the upcoming congressional elections.

Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believes that the US-Israeli operation against Iran is spiraling out of control, as evidenced by sharp fluctuations on global energy markets. With oil prices going skyward, the expert believes Washington has a major disincentive to push for a prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have so far rejected the idea of talks, which is restricting diplomatic opportunities for de-escalation. In such a situation, Russia remains one of the few international players capable of acting as mediators and facilitating the launch of a negotiation process, Loshkaryov emphasized.

 

Vedomosti: Hungary-Ukraine feud shows no signs of stopping

The conflict between Budapest and Kiev escalated further in the first week of March. In addition to the blocking of oil supplies to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline, threats to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and the freezing of the EU’s 90-billion euro loan to Kiev, Ukrainian armoured bank vehicles carrying hard cash and bars of gold from Austria were seized in Hungary, Vedomosti writes.

While the current spat was triggered by the suspension of oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, its reasons run deeper. At its core, this is about Hungary's energy dependence on Russia, political divisions within the European Union and mutual pressure in the Ukraine conflict, Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, explained. According to him, securing cheap Russian oil is a matter of national security for Budapest, which is why the Hungarian authorities have significantly toughened their stance. In the short term, Hungary can partially offset supply disruptions by using other routes, including the Croatia one, but the longer the suspension lasts, the higher the costs will be for the country’s economy and energy market, Belov stressed.

Orban and his inner circle have targeted Kiev’s financial assets in an asymmetrical move to make life difficult for Ukrainian officials, said Artyom Ilyinsky, laboratory assistant with the Department of European Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Hungary has demonstrated that it has a plan of action in response to pressure, Belov added.

Even Peter Magyar, leader of Hungary’s Tisza opposition party, lambasted Vladimir Zelensky for threatening Orban. Belov points out that this issue cuts through party lines: "People in Hungary can argue about Orban’s policies but energy security and external pressure are seen as issues of nationwide importance, and even opposition politicians cannot support actions that threaten the country’s interests and leaders."

 

Izvestia: Analysts expect oil prices to hit $150 a barrel

The world economy is suffering from energy supply disruptions caused by war in the Middle East, as oil prices have risen by over 30% in the past few weeks. If the conflict continues, prices could exceed the $150 per dollar mark, said experts interviewed by Izvestia.

Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the supervisory board at the Reliable Partner association, says that prices will keep growing rapidly if ships are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of Iran’s oil infrastructure facilities continues. And if the US and Israel carry out a ground operation in Iran, that would only exacerbate the problem. "These factors combined could send oil prices above $150 per barrel in the coming weeks, pushing them towards the $200 level at some point," the expert specified.

"If the military conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to vessel traffic for three to four weeks, prices will inevitably grow to $150 per barrel," Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, agrees. According to the expert, while Iran isn’t able to actually shut down the Strait of Hormuz, it is enough for the country to keep the tanker fleet stationed there in its cross-hairs.

"There could soon be a real shortage of oil on the market. Prices could spiral uncontrollably in such a situation, so the $150 mark is a modest estimate amid acute oil shortages. Oil prices passed the $120 per barrel level in 2008, which, adjusted for inflation, would now be $180 per barrel. However, in the current circumstances, this number could be even larger," Alexander Frolov, deputy director general of the National Energy Institute and InfoTEK editor-in-chief, pointed out.

Still, oil prices are unlikely to remain this high for long because consumption will drop as prices rise, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Russian Government, noted. Few countries can afford to pay such a high price for oil, so the market will balance itself out with reduced consumption, the analyst explained.

 

Kommersant: India eyes increased purchases of Russian oil as US gives green light

Moscow could double oil exports to India after the US issued a waiver to New Delhi to purchase Russian oil carried by tankers currently at sea, analysts say. India is interested in additional deliveries amid disruptions in supplies from the Middle East, Kommersant reports.

Washington was forced to issue the waiver to India because military activities in the Middle East had sparked a rise in oil prices. India receives about 55% of its oil imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, so the blocking of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has put the South Asian nation’s energy security in danger.

As demand for Russian crude is rising, discounts may decline and bonuses may be paid for speedy deliveries, analysts point out. Bloomberg and Reuters reported earlier that traders were selling Russia’s Urals oil blend at a premium of $4-5 per barrel to Brent for deliveries set for March and April.

Andrey Polishchuk, senior oil and gas industry analyst at Eiler, believes that depending on the needs of domestic oil refineries, it would take Russia about a month to reroute its tankers at sea towards India.

Kirill Bakhtin, head of the center for Russian stock analysis at BCS World of Investment, believes that the traders who have already secured oil purchases are the ones that will benefit the most from the current situation because the majority of deals are stricken at shipping ports. Polishchuk expects that under the circumstances, discounts for Urals crude will rapidly decline.

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