MOSCOW, February 26. /TASS/. US leader Donald Trump pushes forward with plans to attack Iran, and his administration may lift its oil blockade on Cuba. Meanwhile, Hamas is getting ready for a leadership vote amid Israeli military threats. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Trump pushes ahead with plans to attack Iran

On Tuesday night, Moscow time, US President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address in which he did not mention China for the first time in a while, only briefly referring to continued efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, and spent relatively more time discussing Iran, the situation around which has been escalating for the second month already. "They [Iran] want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: We will never have a nuclear weapon," Trump said in his speech.

Against this background, the United States has continued to deploy its forces near Iran. The New York Times reported on February 22 that between 30,000 and 40,000 US troops have already been deployed in the region. In mid-February, the US and Iran held two rounds of talks in Geneva which did not yield any tangible results. The Washington Post reported on February 25 that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will hold another meeting with the Iranians in the Swiss capital later on Thursday.

Senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sazhin sees quite a high likelihood of a new war in the Middle East: "Even if Tehran renounces its uranium enrichment, it will not end its missile program or stop providing assistance to its regional allies, which will therefore irritate the US and Israel." "The White House could potentially remove these issues from the agenda, but then the Jewish state may in theory launch an attack on the Islamic Republic independently," he told Vedomosti.

Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, says it’s hard to predict how the political situation around Iran will unfold.

According to him, on the one hand, Trump is willing to negotiate a deal with the Iranian side, and on the other hand, he has not abandoned hopes of delivering a blitzkrieg to the Iranian leadership similar to how he kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the political analyst argued. "However, Iran is not Venezuela, and potential aggression against it could trigger a protracted war, a scenario that many American voters would oppose ahead of midterm elections. As no optimal decision is yet in sight, the current situation of ‘neither war nor peace’ may continue indefinitely," he said.

The likelihood of finding a peaceful solution to the international crisis will increase substantially should Iran show its readiness to offer protracted armed resistance, Yury Lyamin, senior researcher with the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told the newspaper. In a potential armed conflict, Iran will primarily rely on the sustainability of its vast underground infrastructure and assistance from pro-Iranian armed groups in the region, Lyamin maintained. According to the expert, any limited military operation will not force the Iranian leadership to relinquish its missile program.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump may partially lift US oil blockade on Cuba

The Trump administration is working on new guidance for exporters to sell and resell oil to Cuba, Bloomberg reported, citing a US official. A number of other US media outlets confirmed this information. According to them, the US will authorize companies to resell oil to Cuba’s private sector. This would constitute a major concession from Washington amid the severe humanitarian crisis on the island triggered by the US oil blockade.

The new US guidance for energy companies will come from the Commerce Department and the Treasury Department, Bloomberg and The Miami Herald reported, shortly. As a result, the US government will permit fuel sales to Cuban businesses and individuals.

If sources interviewed by the US media are right and such a decision is ever made, it would ease the consequences of the US pressure campaign on Cuba. However, it does not mean that the island’s government will get any respite, as guidance from the two US federal agencies will benefit exclusively private Cuban companies rather than government officials.

Magomed Kodzoyev, a senior research fellow with the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that US demands to Cuba are underpinned by US legislation. "The president’s tasks include insisting on holding, as the US puts it, 'a free election'. And Trump could make only minimal concessions to the Cuban authorities on the matter," the expert said. He doubted that the US push to topple the government in Cuba will change depending on who will be the next US administration or what the Cuban leadership will do.

According to Kodzoyev, it’s a big question whether Havana is even ready to soften its political regime at all. At the same time, he continued, if the United States makes sure that no pressure can lead to a regime change in Cuba, this will mean a further escalation of tensions in relations between the two countries or even a potential US intervention further down the road.

 

Izvestia: Israel threatens military action in Gaza as Hamas prepares to conduct leadership vote

Israel is preparing to launch new attacks on Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip unless the radical movement agrees to lay down arms. Evgeny Sova, Deputy Speaker of the Knesset, explained to Izvestia that Trump’s reconstruction plan for the Palestinian enclave directly depends on the surrender of weapons by militants. According to the senior Israeli lawmaker, unless Hamas volunteers to do so, the task will be carried out by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Meanwhile, the Palestinian movement is secretly electing a new politburo leader as it chooses between Khaled Meshaal and a radical candidate, Khalil al-Hayya, with the internal Hamas election currently at its final stages.

Mohammed al-Masri, a security expert, told Izvestia that, as a hardline politician, Khalil al-Hayya, who is close to the military wing and Iran, may resist cooperation, demanding maximum concessions. These could include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza without Hamas disarming, which could escalate the situation and provoke renewed hostilities. Meshaal, once a diplomat in exile, could be more open to pragmatic agreements, including joining a unified Palestinian government or holding talks with rivals like the Fatah party.

The decision to limit the term of office for a new leader to one year could be part of Hamas’ strategy to retain control through 2027. The movement has put forward plans to stay in power in Gaza regardless of external initiatives or global pressure.

Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of Israel’s Channel 9, noted that months into a ceasefire the situation in Gaza has somewhat stabilized, and it is in these circumstances that Hamas has decided to hold a leadership vote. Yanushevsky believes that al-Hayya has a better chance of winning the election as Meshaal has previously headed the politburo and has not been re-elected since, falling under internal criticism, including on financial issues. Unlike him, al-Hayya has a reputation of being a good negotiator which gives him a better position in the current situation, the expert argued.

 

Izvestia: EU pressing Serbia to refrain from signing long-term contract with Russia

The European Union is blocking the signing of a long-term gas contract between Russia and Serbia as it seeks to shift Belgrade to EU-controlled supply channels instead, the Russian Embassy in the Balkan republic told Izvestia. However, there is no alternative to Russian fuel, with market prices in Europe being much higher, and the amount of natural gas in storage across a number of EU countries dropping to critical levels. Brussels is also hindering the construction of a gas pipeline from Serbia to Republika Srpska.

Serbia currently relies on Russian natural gas for more than 80% of its overall consumption. Russian gas is currently being pumped there via the overland extension of the TurkStream pipeline which has a total annual capacity of 15.75 bcm. Alongside this Balkan country, Hungary and Slovakia also import gas through this leg of the pipeline.

The pending EU ban on Russian gas imports has been a key obstacle to concluding a long-term gas contract between Serbia and Russia. Supplies to Serbia go via Bulgaria, which will simply not allow Russian gas to pass through as soon as the new restrictions take effect, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia.

In 2026-2027, another election spree awaits Serbia which will hold a parliamentary election and a presidential vote. Program Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council Milan Lazovic told Izvestia that no radical changes in Belgrade’s policy course or drastic steps toward Russia should be expected after the elections. According to him, Serbia will continue its course toward joining the EU, and the republic is ready for accession even without the right to use a veto in any decision-making. However, Belgrade will not venture into cutting ties with Moscow either. For Russia, continued energy and political ties with Serbia would mean not only stable export revenues amid the sanctions but also maintaining a valuable partner in Central Europe, he argued.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Moscow ratifies LNG agreement with Beijing

The protocol on Russia-China cooperation on the Yamal LNG project and additional terms for other joint ventures in the production of liquefied natural gas has been ratified. The document forms a legal foundation for expanded cooperation between Russia and China in the production, storage and transportation of LNG as it also creates favorable conditions for investments in new LNG projects.

Maria Belova, Research Director at Implementa, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the ratification of the protocol marks another step toward strengthening the energy partnership between China and Russia amid tightened sanctions. The document will help the two countries expand their investment cooperation, by making it easier for the East Asian country, blocked from access to Western funding, to raise capital, she explained.

The protocol could also give an impetus to developing logistics infrastructure, including in ports and transshipment terminals, as well as building shipyards and LNG carriers. This would allow Russia to strengthen its position in the global market, with China being the largest LNG importer, Belova emphasized. For Beijing, this would serve as an instrument of ensuring energy security, especially amid deteriorating relations with the largest LNG producer, the United States, the expert added.

Vyacheslav Mishchenko, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technologies for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex, believes that China could also show an interest in low-tonnage LNG projects in Russia’s Far East. Additionally, China could potentially invest in the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route or gas transportation projects, the expert concluded.

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