MOSCOW, February 24. /TASS/. A new round of Russia - US - Ukraine negotiations may take place in Geneva on February 26; the European Union has not managed to adopt its 20th sanctions package against Russia on schedule due to internal divisions; and a US-assisted operation in Mexico led to the death of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia prepares for new stage of Ukraine negotiations

A new round of negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement may take place in Geneva as early as February 26. However, virtually no information has emerged regarding the course of the consultations. The closed-door format of the meetings between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine may indicate a shift toward concrete decisions, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. Meanwhile, the State Duma emphasized that steady progress is being made despite resistance from the Ukrainian delegation.

The discreet nature of the negotiations – marked by the absence of any serious rumors or leaks – may itself signal movement toward tangible decisions, Karasin told Izvestia.

"The negotiation process is a highly complex, multi-stage undertaking. And judging by the fact that the parties involved – Russia, the United States, and Ukraine – are refraining from making anything public, this is not a bad sign. It suggests that very specific issues are being addressed. If all of this were made public, nothing would come of it," he said.

The lack of sharp statements from Kiev likewise indicates that the dialogue is continuing in a working format, Izvestia writes.

A significant factor hindering the convergence of positions remains Kiev’s insistence on securing long-term security guarantees from the United States before moving toward substantive agreements with Russia. The White House’s position has been more cautious. According to the Financial Times, Washington is linking the provision of security guarantees to the prior achievement of a peace agreement, which is expected to include territorial concessions by Kiev.

Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, believes that Western allies are attempting to strengthen Kiev’s negotiating position while simultaneously urging the United States to continue supporting Ukraine.

"Washington has found itself in a situation where it cannot abandon assistance, yet at the same time it seeks a peace agreement that would entail concessions by Kiev," the expert told Izvestia.

Nevertheless, incremental progress is being made, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Alexey Chepa told Izvestia. According to him, the dialogue is developing despite serious resistance from the Ukrainian delegation.

 

Izvestia: Brussels revises its 20th sanctions package against Russia amid deepening EU divisions

The European Union failed, as initially planned, to approve its 20th package of anti-Russian restrictions by February 24. In pursuit of consensus, Brussels is now prepared to revise its contents, a European source told Izvestia. Divisions within the EU are deepening, with Greece, Spain, Italy, and Malta expressing dissatisfaction with certain provisions of the proposals, while Hungary has blocked the entire package due to its dispute with Ukraine over the Druzhba oil pipeline. Experts believe that opponents of the sanctions will be able to negotiate specific exemptions for themselves, but that the 20th package will ultimately be endorsed.

Although the 20th sanctions package has not been approved, the European Commissioner for Foreign Policy has already announced new restrictions. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that the size of Russia’s diplomatic mission to the EU should not exceed 40 individuals. In addition, Brussels plans to ban entry into Europe for all participants in the special military operation.

At the same time, the European Commission will adjust the contents of the new sanctions package against Russia, a diplomatic source in Brussels told Izvestia. According to the source, certain controversial anti-Russian measures may be removed from the text.

"The text has already been revised several times and will be updated again. The exclusion of some provisions cannot be ruled out. Negotiations will continue until the package is formally approved," the source told Izvestia.

According to media reports, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Malta have raised objections to certain provisions. At a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Hungary blocked the adoption of the 20th sanctions package, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated.

"The situation is more acute than usual now due to the accumulation of serious contradictions in relations with Ukraine, as well as the approaching elections in Hungary," Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University Egor Sergeev told Izvestia.

"Of all the measures currently under discussion in the context of the 20th package, only a possible ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil could inflict short-term damage on the Russian economy, until the adaptation process is completed. All other measures under discussion would, to a much greater extent, harm the economies of EU countries rather than Russia," Deputy Dean of the Faculty of International Relations at MGIMO University Ekaterina Arapova told Izvestia. According to her, the European Union underestimates the countermeasures that Russia could implement.

 

Vedomosti: US-assisted operation eliminates leader of Mexico’s largest drug cartel

The United States assisted Mexico in an operation to detain the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known by the alias El Mencho. During the operation, as Mexico’s Defense Ministry reported on the social media platform X, it proved impossible to capture El Mencho alive. In the ensuing exchange of fire, he and six other cartel members were either killed or seriously wounded; the wounded, including Cervantes, later died while being transported to Mexico City. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti argue that US support for Mexico reflects the Trump administration’s broader anti-drug and border strategy and constitutes only an initial step in a complex and politically sensitive fight against narcotrafficking.

According to Reuters, a newly established unit under Pentagon leadership – the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, created in January 2026 to identify drug cartel networks along the US - Mexico border – contributed to the elimination of El Mencho. A US Defense Department spokesperson told Reuters that the new task force aligns with the Trump administration’s plans to combat drug trafficking, as American military forces expand their presence along the Mexican border.

US assistance to Mexico fits into the broader strategy of the Trump administration regarding the southern border and Latin America as a whole, Lev Sokolshchik, Leading Research Fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. The primary flow of drug trafficking passes through the Mexican border.

For Trump, striking at drug cartels and ending the "drug epidemic" in the United States was a central objective of his election campaign, so cooperation with Mexico to combat drug trafficking "is not a surprise," the expert noted. At the same time, in cooperating with Mexico – which is itself interested in combating drug cartels to eliminate their destabilizing impact – Washington respects the sovereignty of its southern neighbor.

Such a US position works to the advantage of the Mexican authorities, who intend to address cartel-related problems jointly with Washington. The elimination of El Mencho itself represents an intermediate success in a difficult and, within the United States, politically charged campaign, Sokolshchik concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Trump faces legal, economic hurdles in sustaining his trade wars after Supreme Court defeat

US Customs and Border Protection will cease collecting duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) as of February 24, according to an official statement from the agency. This follows the February 20 decision by the US Supreme Court declaring all tariffs introduced by the administration of President Donald Trump on the basis of IEEPA unlawful. The ruling also applies to the so-called reciprocal tariffs that he announced in April 2025. Experts told Vedomosti that the ruling significantly strengthens China’s negotiating position while curbing Trump’s tariff leverage.

Two documents were published on the White House website following the ruling - an executive order on "Ending Certain Tariff Actions" and a proclamation on "Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge to Address Fundamental International Payments Problems." According to the latter document, the surcharge amounts to 10%. Unlike an executive order, a proclamation does not always carry direct binding force and in most cases serves a declarative or informational role.

The US administration’s difficulties are not limited to identifying a new legal justification for tariffs. The decision declaring the measures imposed under IEEPA unlawful has opened the door to potential lawsuits from both American and international companies. In effect, they are now entitled to seek compensation for damages associated with the payment of those tariffs. According to Bloomberg, the total amount subject to reimbursement could exceed $170 bln. Various estimates place the figure between $130 bln and $170 bln, depending on the calculation methodology. In addition to corporations, ordinary citizens may also be eligible to submit compensation claims.

China appears to be the obvious beneficiary of the court’s decision, as its negotiating position has now become comparatively stronger, Maxim Cherkashin, Research Fellow at the Center for North American Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. As for the impact of changes in tariff policy on prices within the United States, he believes that a sharp decline in prices or a meaningful reduction in inflation should not be expected.

Despite Trump’s efforts to maintain control over the situation, China’s negotiating position has clearly strengthened, Head of the Department of Domestic Political Studies at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vadim Kozlov told the newspaper. He emphasized that China understands the limitations of Trump’s available policy tools and may therefore adjust its trade and negotiating strategy accordingly. Speaking about the impact on prices, the expert stressed that price increases will occur, but they will be limited.

 

Kommersant: Concerns over potential supply shortages lift prices for Russian thermal coal in China

Risks of a shortage of thermal coal on the Chinese market, stemming from potential difficulties with supplies from Indonesia and insufficient growth in domestic production, have driven up prices for the fuel. Prices in southern China rose by 6% over the course of a week, while prices for Russian coal in Far Eastern ports increased by 2%. However, analysts believe that market participants’ concerns may prove temporary, Kommersant writes.

The price of Russian thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal per kg in Far Eastern ports increased by 2.2% in the second week of February, reaching $74.7 per ton (FOB), according to calculations by NEFT Research. Quotations exceeded the level recorded at the beginning of the year by 3.3%, though they remained 1.9% lower than a year earlier. The Center for Price Indices (CPI) also reports a 5-6% increase in coal prices in February in the Far Eastern direction.

According to analysts, prices are rising on expectations of a shortfall following the holiday period in China.

"Traders are factoring into prices the risks that delays in quota approvals in Indonesia and the inertia of domestic production will prevent supply from adjusting quickly to the increase in industrial activity," analysts noted. According to data from the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD), cited by Reuters, coal production in China this year may grow at its slowest pace since 2020 – by 0.7% year-on-year, to 4.86 bln tons.

Russia ranks third among suppliers of thermal coal to China after Indonesia and Australia, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Prices for high-calorific Russian coal have also continued to rise amid constrained supply from Indonesia, NEFT Research stated in its review. Analysts added that stronger quotations were further supported by reduced shipments through Far Eastern ports due to adverse weather conditions and by demand from South Korean counterparties.

Evgeny Grachev, Director of the Center for Price Indices, believes that the impact of the Indonesian factor will diminish as demand declines during the off-season. NEFT Research consulting partner Alexander Kotov also considers the upward trend to be short-term. In his view, once the situation with prices in Indonesia stabilizes and domestic production in China reaches planned levels, a price correction is possible.

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