MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. Russia and the US still find it difficult to improve their relations without the Ukrainian issue on agenda; Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko don’t plan to attend the first meeting of the Board of Peace, established by US President Donald Trump; and the EU is striving for strategic as well as nuclear autonomy from the US. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Are Russia and US capable of improving their relations without Ukraine issue on agenda?

Despite the absence of an official US response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's September proposal on mutual compliance with quantitative restrictions under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for another year following its expiration on February 5, Moscow will continue to observe the moratorium. Speaking on February 11 during a "government hour" in the State Duma, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that Washington is also "in no hurry to abandon these limits."

The US administration's position on the New START Treaty is difficult to understand because its main response has been to call on China to join arms control efforts, Alexander Yermakov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, a direct response from the US to the Russian proposal is not expected, though the Americans may clarify the prospects for deploying additional nuclear forces in the next couple of months. "This will not necessarily be in response to our calls, but rather for domestic political reasons, including work on the budget for the next fiscal year," he noted.

"We have always been open to discussion. However, when the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, we immediately announced a moratorium on deploying these missiles. We declared that we would not deploy the relevant systems until the US deployed its systems in Europe," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.

Meanwhile, separating the Ukrainian track from issues of bilateral cooperation between Russia and the US remains a difficult task, primarily because of the Trump administration, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, emphasized. "Washington is deliberately holding back cooperation with Moscow on other issues in an attempt to get Russia to make concessions on the Ukrainian settlement. They assume that normalizing diplomatic relations and economic cooperation is something that Russia supposedly needs more than the US," the expert explained.

The reason why the Trump administration is seeking additional concessions from Moscow is that the White House is not yet in a position to ensure that Kiev and Brussels accept the "Anchorage understandings." Therefore, according to Suslov, Trump is once again trying to put pressure on Russia.

"In this context, it is worth considering whether we are deceiving ourselves in thinking that Trump wants to cooperate with Russia on a broader range of issues. Such thoughts are prompted by the Trump administration's practical steps on various issues, from energy and strategic stability to Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and the South Caucasus, which remain unfriendly and sometimes hostile in nature," the expert pointed out.

 

Vedomosti: Reason why first meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace to take place without Putin, Lukashenko, others

The first meeting of the Board of Peace, established by US President Donald Trump to settle the conflict in Gaza, is set to be held by the White House on February 19. However, neither Russian leader Vladimir Putin nor his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko is expected to attend, despite having received invitations. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vedomosti that "such a trip is not on the president's schedule." Lukashenko will also be unable to attend, his press secretary Natalia Eismont said, emphasizing that the reasons include the leader's busy schedule and "potential logistical difficulties that may arise due to illegal sanctions, primarily from the EU."

According to Nikolay Silayev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, relations between Belarus and the US have improved in recent months, but not enough for Lukashenko to travel to that country. Moreover, US personal sanctions against him and his family members remain in force, as do European sanctions. On January 20, Lukashenko became the first leader to publicly formalize his decision to join Trump’s Board of Peace on camera.

The expert added that Belarus' key ally, Russia, and its key partner, China, are not overly enthusiastic about the US leader’s peace organization, and it is not yet clear what will come of this venture. Lukashenko has dealt with five US presidents during his time in office, so he has "no reason to rush," Silayev emphasized.

There are still many uncertainties about how the Board of Peace will function. Putin is also unlikely to attend the first meeting, Andrey Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai International Discussion Club, noted. According to the UN, the organization’s goals focus on Gaza, but even there, important issues such as the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the disarmament of Hamas remain unresolved.

Meanwhile, Trump is trying to expand the body's functions to include Venezuela and Ukraine. However, most of America's allies are refraining from participating, while most of Russia's neighbors in the post-Soviet space have agreed to join. For Moscow, though, this is quite acceptable given the attempt to normalize relations between Russia and the US, Kortunov stressed.

 

Izvestia: EU begins talks on creating its own nuclear forces

Brussels is striving for strategic autonomy from the US. Behind the scenes, the EU is seriously discussing what seemed unthinkable just yesterday: the creation of its own nuclear arsenal. However, experts warn that such ambitions will require enormous costs and could ultimately bring any dialogue on disarmament to an end.

The EU's desire for autonomy from the US is a long-term trend that may take 25 to 50 years to achieve. The organization was established under conditions of strategic dependence on the US and NATO, so forming military structures will require significant effort, Daria Moiseyeva, chief analyst at ANO Collaboratory, told Izvestia. "The time needed to achieve this strategic autonomy also depends on the political course taken by the US. Either Trump's strategy will end with his presidency and change, or future presidents will continue this course. In that case, the EU will have to accelerate its pursuit of strategic autonomy," the expert noted.

The EU is discussing various ways of developing its own nuclear capabilities. One option is to use France's arsenal, Czech lawmaker in the European Parliament Tomas Zdechovsky emphasized. The question of how to strengthen European security and deterrence is sometimes raised in broader political discussions in Europe. In this context, France's nuclear capabilities may be mentioned, but there is no official EU policy or decision to extend the "French nuclear umbrella" to the entire EU. Any such move would require national-level decisions and broad political consensus, the politician said.

Another view is that the EU should create its own nuclear arsenal since the French one will remain under Paris' control anyway. "Even if President [Emmanuel] Macron talks about transferring it to ‘European use,’ I don't think that will happen, especially considering that Macron will leave office in 2027. I believe that we must create an independent European nuclear deterrent system against future threats," Finnish Army General Pekka Toveri, a member of the European Parliament, told Izvestia.

The easiest way for the EU to acquire its own nuclear arsenal is to use the existing French and British ones. In early February, Swedish authorities said they were holding talks with Paris and London about nuclear guarantees. The German government is also engaged in dialogue with France on this issue, the German embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.

 

Izvestia: Israeli PM trying to influence US-Iran talks

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made an urgent visit to the White House on February 11 for a meeting with US President Donald Trump in order to influence the course of US-Iranian negotiations on the nuclear program. The visit was brought forward in an attempt by Israel to prevent a "soft" deal with Tehran that would address only the nuclear dossier. Netanyahu insists that the agreement include strict limits on Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, a complete halt to uranium enrichment, the removal of its accumulated uranium stockpile from the country, and the immediate withdrawal of support for allied armed groups.

According to Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Israel's Channel 9 website, the decision to bring forward Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the US indicates the level of urgency and political pressure surrounding the Iranian issue. The expert pointed out that the Israeli prime minister may have had several motives: the desire to prevent the US from making concessions on the issues of Iran's missile program and Tehran's support for regional allies, as well as an attempt to coordinate actions in the event of a forceful scenario.

"The purpose of Netanyahu's trip was to influence the White House's position, as it is under pressure from various groups. The goal was either to achieve the toughest possible agreement with Tehran or to ensure coordination between the US and Israel in the event of an escalation. An additional cause for concern is satellite imagery showing preparatory work at the Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan, similar to what was recorded before previous strikes on this facility," Yanushevsky told Izvestia.

Meanwhile, Iranian international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalloul emphasized that Tehran is proceeding from the need to return to the arrangements previously agreed upon in Oman. "The current escalation and mistrust are largely due to US actions. Washington has deviated from the agreed-upon procedures, thereby undermining the negotiation process. At the same time, the initial agenda for the consultations did not include issues related to ballistic missiles and Iran's regional influence. The discussion focused exclusively on nuclear issues," the expert noted.

In his opinion, Tehran is seeking to establish these parameters and close any possible loopholes for pressure from Washington, viewing a military scenario as an extreme and undesirable option that Iran is ready to resort to only if there are no alternatives.

 

Media: Potential dangers of new package of EU sanctions for Russian oil

The EU keeps sanctioning Russia and is now preparing its 20th package. In addition to the traditional restrictions on the shadow fleet's tankers, it may include a ban on transporting Russian oil by EU vessels and measures against third-country ports where it is transshipped.

European sanctions have generally had limited effect on Russian exports compared to US restrictions, with the exception of the EU embargo on imports of Russian oil in December 2022. However, the latest US sanctions and Washington's pressure on India could cause EU measures to trigger a further increase in discounts on Russian oil. This would be highly undesirable for domestic companies and the country’s budget revenues.

According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Russian Financial University, who spoke with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, up to half of the fleet transporting Russian oil is already on European and US sanctions lists. This means that it is necessary to use ships that are not yet subject to sanctions whenever possible. However, the number of such vessels worldwide is limited, so there may be a shortage of logistics capacity and, consequently, a rise in freight rates. Estimates vary widely, with some predicting a 30% increase in tariffs.

Andrianov also noted that the EU's total ban on transporting Russian oil creates the illusion of a legal basis - albeit a very shaky one - for further attacks on tankers belonging to the shadow fleet in European waters, especially in the Baltic Sea. Such cases could become more frequent if the 20th package is adopted, he pointed out.

In turn, Alexander Frolov, deputy director of the National Energy Institute, told RBC that Russian companies will continue to expand their fleet using the current method: “numerous enterprises and hundreds of tankers registered in different countries around the world, including the UAE and China.”

The new package of sanctions “will effectively cut off Russian LNG plants and the gas tanker fleet from Europe,” Alexey Belogoriev, research director at the Energy and Finance Institute, stressed. The most serious restriction will be the ban on the sale, transfer, or leasing of used LNG tankers, which will significantly complicate the formation of a shadow fleet, as well as a complete ban on the maintenance and servicing of tankers and icebreakers, the expert noted.

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