MOSCOW, February 5. /TASS/. The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty may spark a new arms race; Donald Trump sees the Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine as important; and Pakistan has emerged as a mediator between the US and Iran. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: New START’s expiration may trigger a renewed arms race

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) officially expires on February 5. This was the last legal barrier preventing Moscow and Washington from expanding their nuclear arsenals. In the fall of 2025, Russia proposed extending the treaty’s limitations for another year, but the US ignored the initiative, Izvestia notes.

Both Russia and the United States are currently in the process of upgrading weapons generations, so experts don’t rule out that a lack of restrictions and control may accelerate the process. However, specialists see no threat of immediate escalation. "Reasons to be concerned may emerge in a few years, when American projects for the deployment of Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles, B-21 heavy bombers and Columbia submarines will be fully underway. Their deployment will no longer be limited by New START," military expert Dmitry Boltenkov explained.

Another concern the treaty’s expiration creates is that the parties will stop exchanging information on major drills involving strategic offensive weapons. Without notifications of missile launches, the risk of accidental escalation due to errors in early-warning systems increases significantly, military expert Viktor Litovkin emphasized. However, Boltenkov pointed out that missile launch notification procedures are partially regulated by a separate agreement that the US and the Soviet Union signed in 1988.

Meanwhile, the main issue lies in the potential expansion of the so-called "Nuclear Club." Russia is no longer willing to discuss new limitations without taking the nuclear capabilities of France and Britain into account.

"The treaty’s expiration will have the most negative consequences," Litovkin concluded. "It paves the way for another strategic nuclear arms race. Besides, it also sets a bad example for all other countries that possess nuclear arms, making it clear that there are no limits on strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. At the end of the day, this may lead to a rise in the number of Nuclear Club member states," he elaborated.

According to the analyst, the treaty’s expiration brings an end to strategic stability and raises the risk of escalation.

 

Media: Trump sees Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine as important

The second round of trilateral talks between the US, Russian and Ukrainian security groups is underway in the Emirati capital of Abu Dhabi. Just like in the first round of consultations, the parties are maintaining a high level of secrecy, Vedomosti notes.

The Abu Dhabi talks are important for US President Donald Trump, who seeks to show that Washington is in control of the process, Nikita Setov, deputy director of the Politolog consulting group, said. According to the expert, Trump’s main interest is in preserving the format of dialogue and the ability to talk about progress without moving on to specific agreements.

Vladimir Pavlov, a researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, explains that Trump seeks to highlight the United States’ role as a mediator, as well as to sideline the European Union and the United Kingdom, until the allies start acting as he expects them to. Basically, in Pavlov’s words, Trump does not currently appear ready or able to encourage Kiev and Brussels to accept Moscow’s terms.

Trump is interested in making real progress because he has put himself in a corner by vowing to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, noted. In his view, the US leader needs to make some political achievements to divert attention from the growing criticism he is facing on all fronts at home.

Meanwhile, there are still no signs of an actual peace agreement, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Izvestia. According to him, it’s currently just "talks about talks." Vasilyev believes that the key issues — Kiev’s plans to have an 800,0000-strong army and the potential deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine — remain unresolved, which will inevitably lead to attempts at revanche in the future. No breakthroughs should be expected at the negotiating table until judicial and military contradictions are settled, the expert stressed.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Pakistan emerges as mediator between US, Iran

The US has sent an entire armada toward Iran and is ready to carry out a massive attack on the country. In such a situation, reports of Washington and Tehran agreeing to hold talks look encouraging. According to the media, the country that quietly helped build contact between the US and Tehran was Pakistan. The conflicting parties, who seek to avoid a clash, highly valued Islamabad’s role. That said, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is likely to attend the talks scheduled to take place in Oman on February 6, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

As for the agenda of the upcoming negotiations, the United States wants Iran to halt its nuclear weapons program and the production of advanced missiles. Iran stated earlier that it would respond to aggression by targeting US military bases and those of its allies in the Middle East.

Political scientist Yelena Suponina believes that "chances are that the US and Iran will reach an understanding." "Otherwise, they would not opt for negotiations. However, the level of distrust is very high and it won’t be easy to bridge. The talks will be painful and difficult; there will be breakdowns, with the US issuing more threats," she pointed out.

"The level of distrust toward America is high not only in Iran but also in other countries in the region. I have just returned from a tour of the Gulf nations; I traveled to Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Iran’s neighbors also find Trump’s policy puzzling. The people I met with said that Trump’s love of surprises and unexpected moves does not help settle conflicts quickly," the expert observed.

According to her, Pakistan offered its mediation services earlier, when tensions started to rise. Notably, Islamabad is coordinating its efforts in this regard with other countries, namely Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s participation in the Iran-US talks can be described as a diplomatic gain. The fact is that Islamabad has nothing to be proud of in terms of the domestic situation. Pakistan’s economic situation remains tough due to major debts to international financial organizations, while separatist and terrorist groups continue their attacks.

 

Izvestia: Russia leads list of oil, gas exporters to China

Russia-China partnership has been exemplary, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a video call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The latter believes that relations between Beijing and Moscow have entered a new stage of development. This is confirmed by figures. Bilateral trade has been well above the milestone mark of $200 billion for a third consecutive year, Izvestia reports.

Russia remains the number one energy exporter to China, particularly when it comes to oil and pipeline gas. China ranks first among Russia’s trade partners. This trend benefits both countries. For instance, Beijing helped Moscow mitigate the consequences of the West’s move to ban it from or limit its access to certain markets, Yekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for World Policy and Strategic Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, explained. Russia, in turn, boosted supplies of oil, gas — especially liquefied natural gas — and coal to China.

"Beijing has also been facing pressure from Western countries in recent years, and it needs a strategic rear base and a supplier that does not depend on Washington’s position and does not pursue an anti-China policy. In this regard, partners in the Middle East aren’t that consistent. This is why higher energy supplies are mutually beneficial," the expert pointed out.

The Power of Siberia 2 project to build a major gas pipeline connecting gas fields in West Siberia with China via Mongolia remains on the bilateral agenda. China needs it because the country’s energy sector and chemical industry demand large volumes of gas, Kirill Kotkov, head of the Center for Far Eastern Studies at the St. Petersburg-based International Association of Integration Cooperation, specified.

Experts assume that apart from economic issues, the closed-door part of the Putin-Xi conversation also addressed ways to enhance cooperation between the defense ministries, which, according to analysts, is confirmed by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu’s recent visit to China. "The new joint plans that Xi Jinping has hinted at include deeper coordination in the military field, because we have extensive experience that may be useful for China, too," Zaklyazminskaya stressed.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Decline in commodity dependence boosts Russia’s budget stability

Russia’s dependence on oil and gas revenues has decreased, increasing the country’s budget stability, Yelena Lebedinskaya, director of the Finance Ministry’s Department of Revenue, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

The share of oil and gas revenues in Russia’s federal budget dropped to 22.7% in 2025, the lowest mark in the past decade and almost half of the level recorded in 2015.

Russia’s overall budget revenues continue to grow steadily. According to data from the Federal Treasury, total budget revenues stood at nearly 37.3 trillion rubles ($482 billion) in 2025, while non-oil and gas revenues reached 28.8 trillion rubles ($365 billion), making up 77.3% of budget income. For comparison, their share was 69.7% in 2024.

The steady increase in non-oil and gas revenues and efforts to diversify sources of budgetary income have been a stable trend for the past decade, Lebedinskaya noted. The share of oil and gas revenues almost halved over the past ten years, while overall budget revenues rose significantly.

"Over the past ten years, Russia’s budget system has faced many serious challenges, from sharp global market fluctuations to the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and the pressure of sanctions. However, there are several factors that ensure budget stability, including a decline in the share of energy production and exports, measures to improve the collection of non-oil and gas revenues, and the growing effectiveness of state property and revenue management," the expert elaborated.

According to her, the ongoing decline in the share of oil and gas revenues reflects deeper structural changes in the country’s economy and budget system. As a result, the federal budget is becoming less sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices than it was ten years ago, which enhances its resilience amid external instability, Lebedinskaya concluded.

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