MOSCOW, January 30. /TASS/. Russia and the UAE held Kremlin talks following recent Ukraine-related negotiations in Abu Dhabi; Denmark intends to expand its military presence in the Baltic; and NATO countries plan to launch a defense bank by 2027. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Russia, UAE hold Kremlin talks following Abu Dhabi negotiations

Talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and UAE President Mohammed Al Nahyan were held at the Kremlin. The UAE leader arrived in Moscow four days after the conclusion of trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and on the eve of a new meeting there between representatives of Russia and Ukraine. Experts told Vedomosti that the Kremlin talks may have focused on coordinating mediation ahead of renewed Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Abu Dhabi, exchanging positions on Iran, Syria, and Gaza to prevent regional escalation, as well as reinforcing the UAE’s role as a key economic, energy, and diplomatic partner for Russia.

Ahead of the talks, Al Nahyan met with Russian, Ukrainian, and American negotiators. The continuation of the security group’s negotiations is scheduled for February 1, although this time without the participation of the Americans, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

The bilateral talks between the leaders of Russia and the UAE are primarily focused on the upcoming second meeting of Russian, American, and Ukrainian representatives in Abu Dhabi under the mediation of the Emirati authorities, Kamran Gasanov, a doctor of political science at the University of Salzburg, told Vedomosti. During his dialogue with Putin, Al Nahyan may have been expected to deliver a message from the presidents of the United States or Ukraine and to gauge the Russian side’s stance, the political scientist suggested.

The heads of state will undoubtedly exchange information regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict against the backdrop of the negotiations scheduled for February 1 in Abu Dhabi, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, said. Meetings between the leaders of Russia and the UAE have been regular since 2022, and the Emirates are Russia’s second most important trade and economic partner in the Middle East after Turkey: by the end of last year, bilateral trade turnover neared $10 bln, the Middle East expert noted. Both countries, he added, work closely together in the fields of energy, logistics, and industrial technologies.

Another important topic of the talks was the situation surrounding Iran in the context of a possible strike on the Islamic Republic, Gasanov believes. Al Nahyan is likely to attempt to persuade the Russian president to act jointly as a mediator to de-escalate the situation, the expert said: "The UAE authorities are not interested in a new regional war, as it could potentially lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which Arab states supply energy resources to the global market."

Gasanov also suggested the possibility of joint participation in Syria’s economic and military reconstruction, potentially with the involvement of financial resources from Abu Dhabi. On the broader Middle Eastern agenda, the sides are likely to align their positions on the situations surrounding Iran, Syria, and the Gaza Strip, particularly in the context of the emerging "Board of Peace," in which the Emirati authorities hope to play an important role, Bocharov added.

 

Izvestia: Denmark prepares for escalation against Russia in the Baltic

The Danish authorities plan to station a missile battery on the island of Bornholm and increase their military contingent there, the Russian Embassy in the kingdom told Izvestia. According to analysts, these plans pose a threat to the Baltic Fleet and to civilian shipping. At the same time, Denmark and 13 other European countries are gradually building a legal framework for actions against tankers in the Baltic Sea. Against this backdrop, discussions are underway about strengthening NATO’s military presence in Greenland as well.

"Copenhagen’s plans to militarize Bornholm are being implemented consistently. A separate regiment is being formed on the island. Over the next two years, the number of its personnel is set to increase from 200 to 500. An anti-ship missile battery will also be deployed there. Danish Air Force fighter jets are stationed on Bornholm on a regular basis," Russian diplomats noted.

The appearance of anti-ship missiles on the island will pose a threat to the Baltic Fleet and to Russian civilian vessels. The use of such missiles would mean a war between NATO and Russia, which would inevitably become nuclear, with corresponding consequences, Yuri Zverev, Director of the Center for Foreign Regional Studies and Country Studies at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, told Izvestia.

"There is a danger of tankers being detained by Denmark and other countries. Retaliatory measures may not be direct, meaning not at sea, but they could be sufficiently painful for the countries engaged in piracy. And I am confident that such measures are already being considered," the expert believes.

At the same time, the strengthening of NATO’s military presence in Greenland is also being discussed. "The buildup of the military presence on the territory of Greenland is taking place amid lamentations about the need to counter an alleged Russian threat. Such narratives provoke military and political tension in the Arctic," Russian diplomats stressed.

However, the development of the Northern Sea Route and the growth of cargo traffic, including transit shipments along this route, will proceed in accordance with Russia’s own long-term plans and regardless of the situation surrounding Greenland, the diplomatic mission noted.

 

Izvestia: Western allies plan to set up NATO-backed defense bank by 2027

NATO countries will establish a special "Defense, Security, and Resilience Bank" (DSRB) by 2027 to prepare for a potential military conflict with Russia, Izvestia has learned. Leading roles in the institution will be held by representatives of the United Kingdom. The new financial body is intended to help NATO members meet the required level of military spending of 5% of GDP, allowing them to spend more on weapons than their domestic laws would otherwise permit.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated bluntly that Russia is the alliance’s main adversary. According to the bloc, a potential military conflict with Russia could occur as early as 2029-2031. Last summer, member states agreed to increase the mandatory minimum level of defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035.

The bank’s full-scale launch is planned for 2027, a source familiar with the matter told Izvestia. Earlier, plans were reported to raise 100 bln pounds sterling ($135.1 bln). The leadership of the DSRB aims to finalize the bank’s charter in Q1 of 2026, with the first bond issuance on capital markets expected in Q3 or Q4 of 2026. The organization is currently choosing a headquarters location, with Ottawa and Toronto among the options. Toronto is considered the leading candidate due to Canada’s strong financial sector and its relative distance from Europe.

The prominent role of British nationals in this project is no accident. London has taken a particularly tough stance toward Russia and opposes initiatives by France and Italy to restore dialogue with Moscow. Among British elites, the prospect of a near-term military conflict with Russia is widely debated, Richard Balfe, member of the House of Lords of the UK Parliament, told Izvestia.

Unlike Donald Trump, who has stated that US priorities lie in the Western Hemisphere, London is interested in bolstering its influence in Eastern Europe, senior research fellow at the Center for British Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Oleg Okhoshin told Izvestia.

 

Vedomosti: White House and Senate rush to avert partial US government shutdown

The White House and members of the US Senate are seeking to reach a deal to extend federal funding in order to avoid a partial shutdown, which could take effect on January 31 if the funds are not approved, CNN reported on January 29, citing sources. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, a bipartisan deal is still possible, but likely only after a partial shutdown, with the Trump administration expected to offer temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security in exchange for keeping the rest of the federal government funded through the end of September.

Republicans led by President Donald Trump, on the one hand, and Democrats, on the other, have been unable to agree on one of the key sticking points: funding for the DHS. The former support extending its funding, while the latter favor freezing it. The reason for this dispute lies in the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which operates under DHS, following incidents in which two US citizens were killed by agency officers in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in January.

Public outrage over ICE’s actions is no longer confined to Minnesota. According to the latest YouGov poll published on January 26, 57% of Americans do not support ICE’s work, and 46% favor its abolition. More broadly, the agency’s activities have long sparked concern among a significant segment of US society. Against this backdrop, Trump himself continues to face declining approval ratings.

Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, but 60 votes are required to bring the bill to a final vote, where a simple majority of 51 votes or more would be needed for passage. In other words, Republicans must secure support from at least seven Democrats.

A deal between the parties is possible, but they will not make it in time to avoid a shutdown, Vadim Kozlov, head of the Domestic Policy Studies Department at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to him, the Trump administration is prepared to make concessions in order to prolong talks over immigration enforcement. The most acceptable structure for the White House, in Kozlov’s view, would be a deal under which funding for all federal agencies is approved through the end of September, while DHS funding is extended for two months, with the option of further extensions.

 

Kommersant: Lukoil ready to sell its foreign assets to US firm Carlyle

Lukoil, which was unable to sell its foreign assets to the trader Gunvor due to opposition from the US Treasury Department, has reached an agreement to sell them to American company Carlyle. If the deal is approved, Lukoil’s business in Kazakhstan will not be included in it, and the discount could reach up to 40%. For Carlyle, the acquisition would provide an opportunity to benefit from the subsequent resale of Lukoil’s most liquid foreign assets, Kommersant writes.

Lukoil clarified that the agreement with Carlyle is not exclusive and is subject to a number of conditions, including obtaining clearance from the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Lukoil is also continuing negotiations with other potential buyers.

According to Vladislav Bedrosov, lawyer in the special projects practice at Vegas Lex, the ability to negotiate with other bidders allows Lukoil to explore multiple options and avoid unjustified delays, given OFAC’s previous positions. The statement that talks are continuing with other buyers also suggests that Lukoil may still be able to enhance the terms of the deal, Kirill Bakhtin, head of the Russian equity analytics center at BCS World of Investments, told Kommersant.

Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, noted that the deal would give Carlyle control over a portfolio that includes European refineries, logistics, and retail operations. However, he added, the company itself describes its approach as ensuring operational continuity, preserving jobs, and stabilizing the asset base, which is typical of preparing for a subsequent exit. According to the expert, the most likely plan is to stabilize and "clean up" the portfolio before proceeding with a phased divestment. The most liquid assets, Kasatkin added, are minority stakes in major international projects with strong operators, where there are "natural" buyers in the form of partners, while refineries are the most politicized and could potentially be sold under regulatory pressure, possibly at a discount and through complex transaction structures.

Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, agrees with this scenario, adding that Carlyle’s primary objective will be the subsequent resale of Lukoil’s foreign business. From a political standpoint, the expert believes it is important for US authorities that an American company profits from the deal, while the question of whether that profit comes from operating the assets or from reselling them is less critical.

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