MOSCOW, January 26. /TASS/. Russia, the US, and Ukraine noted cautious progress in Abu Dhabi talks; the EU plans to accelerate militarization over the next three years; and the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy moves US military focus to the Western Hemisphere. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia, US, Ukraine see cautious progress as talks in Abu Dhabi resume

Moscow, Washington, and Kiev have achieved a certain degree of progress in efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict during talks in Abu Dhabi, analysts interviewed by Izvestia say. The next round of dialogue in the United Arab Emirates is planned as early as this week. The first meeting of the parties was productive, although no specific agreements were officially announced. For now, the main outcome has been the resumption of direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, the previous round of which took place six months ago in Istanbul. Against this backdrop, however, Ukraine’s Armed Forces have intensified strikes on Russian regions, and their objective is either another disruption of the negotiating process or the possible inclusion of European representatives in it, officials at the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.

A new meeting of the delegations of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine may take place in Abu Dhabi as early as next week, a number of media outlets report, citing their own sources. For now, the negotiators are returning to their respective capitals to brief their leadership and receive updated instructions. A meeting of a bilateral Russia-US working group, to be headed by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Witkoff, has also been announced. Among other matters, the parties plan to discuss Russian assets frozen in the United States.

Initial assessments indicate that there has been a certain degree of progress in the talks. The willingness of the delegations to work in a closed format, without provocations or leaks to the media, is also important, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy Oleg Karpovich told Izvestia.

"The composition of the delegations reflects significant attention being given to both the military and economic tracks. There is in-depth expert-level work underway on the most important issues, which cannot but instill cautious optimism," the expert said.

One of Axios’ sources said that a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky could be "close". At the same time, the Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that such a meeting "must be well prepared so that it can finalize the groundwork that must first be completed at the expert level."

Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the HSE University Center for Mediterranean Studies, noted that the strategies of both Moscow and Kiev remain unchanged: the continuation of hostilities alongside the intensification of the diplomatic track. Each side sees this as an opportunity to strengthen its negotiating positions. However, the situation on the front lines shows that it is Kiev that is sustaining disproportionate damage, particularly against the backdrop of the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s energy system.

 

Izvestia: EU expected to accelerate militarization over next three years

EU officials are confident that a direct conflict with Russia could begin within the next three years, representatives in the European Parliament told Izvestia. The bloc’s elites are using this assessment to justify an accelerated pace of militarization across the union. As early as 2026, the SAFE rearmament mechanism is set to come into force, providing for collective borrowing of up to €150 bln. However, this will increase the debt burden for countries whose industries are already in serious crisis, representatives of Russia’s permanent mission to the EU told Izvestia. At the same time, Europe is already discussing new rearmament programs, including air defense and missile defense systems.

As confirmed to Izvestia by French Member of the European Parliament Thierry Mariani, responding to a question about the timeline, the largest parties in the European Parliament now consider a conflict with Russia to be highly likely or even inevitable within the next three years.

"My answer is yes. <…> War with Russia is likely because ‘Russia is seeking it.’ This is indeed the position of many groups (in the European Parliament). Hence the need to rearm, to equip ourselves, and so on," he said.

Brussels’ political determination to prepare for war is running up against stark economic realities. The main instrument of accelerated militarization is the SAFE mechanism, a joint arms procurement program. The tool allows EU countries to obtain concessional loans backed by shared guarantees from the EU budget, yet the bloc is not pausing there.

For many states facing budget deficits, SAFE serves as a "convenient way" to cover military needs through shared debt, representatives of Russia’s permanent mission to the EU told Izvestia. However, future generations will ultimately bear the cost.

"Brussels’ current aggressive policies have already led to a drop in living standards across the EU and a crisis in the industrial sector. If this course continues, the negative trends will become irreversible," they emphasized.

 

Vedomosti: Pentagon’s new defense strategy prioritizes Western hemisphere

It is not in the United States’ interest to conduct active operations around the world alone; instead, the US military will concentrate on the most important and dangerous threats to the country, according to the new version of the National Defense Strategy (NDS) published on the Pentagon’s website on January 23. Experts told Vedomosti the new strategy highlights Trump’s dual focus on the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific, framing Russia as a lasting but manageable threat open to dialogue.

The approach outlined in the new NDS includes defending the Western Hemisphere, deterring China in the Indo-Pacific region, shifting the burden among US allies and partners worldwide, and rebuilding the US defense industrial base.

China is recognized as the world’s second most powerful country after the United States, which, according to the document, drives Washington to maintain a favorable balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific region. Meanwhile, Russia is described as a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members in the near future.

The United States proposes that its allies assume greater responsibility for ensuring their own security as the main guarantee of maintaining global stability and security.

The NDS both aligns with and contradicts the National Security Strategy, Pavel Koshkin, a senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, the contradiction lies in the sharper rhetoric toward Russia in the current document. "Russia remains a permanent threat, but it also sees many opportunities for cooperation with Moscow and therefore does not abandon dialogue," he explained. The absence of any mention of Taiwan, in turn, shows Trump’s reluctance to pursue a direct military escalation in relations with China. However, in the long term, the United States will continue its course of competition with China, the expert said.

Trump has once again highlighted his two priorities: the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific region, Vladimir Pavlov, research fellow at MGIMO’s Institute for International Studies, told the newspaper. In his view, China will remain a priority regardless of the rhetoric, but Washington in this area appears to want greater "manageability" and to retain the initiative, including through unanticipated actions.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump threatens sweeping tariffs on Canadian exports amid China deal

Canada is being threatened with tariffs on all of its goods exported to the United States. The formal pretext for the measures was a trade agreement with China reached during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing earlier this month. In reality, however, the threats are most likely driven by Carney’s bold remarks in Davos, which reportedly displeased Donald Trump, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The prime minister argued that the existing world order is breaking down and called on smaller states to unite against hegemony.

In mid-January, Carney made his first official visit to Beijing, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two sides reached an agreement on a "strategic partnership" in the economic sphere.

However, what truly angered the US administration was Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. There, the Canadian prime minister called on smaller countries to unite against pressure from major powers. His remarks sparked a wave of criticism in the White House and from Trump personally. US officials recalled that a review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled for this year. When Trump was reelected and imposed tariffs on countries around the world, it was this agreement that helped mitigate the impact of the trade restrictions, as most of US-Canada trade was exempt from them.

For now, Trump’s threats remain just that, and the likelihood of their implementation is relatively low, chief research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies Elena Komkova told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. She noted that Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc had reaffirmed the country’s commitment to its trade agreements with the United States. The official also rejected rumors of a free trade agreement with China.

"Trump has repeatedly changed his plans. At times he has postponed the introduction of promised tariffs, at times canceled them, and at times scaled them back. I think it is unlikely that his threat against Canada will be carried out, although anything can be expected from Trump," the expert said.

If 100% tariffs are nonetheless imposed, the Canadian economy would be able to absorb them, Komkova believes. The main problem, she added, is that all of Canada’s export infrastructure is geared toward the United States - even its highways and railways, oil pipelines, and ports. "But external ties are gradually being diversified, and trade barriers between provinces are being removed. Therefore, there is certainly no talk of a threat of collapse of the Canadian economy," Komkova concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Russian export commodity prices slump in 2025

Export prices for most Russian commodity goods fell significantly in 2025, resulting in the raw materials index of the Price Index Center declining to 52 points, according to materials from the agency reviewed by Vedomosti. This is the lowest reading since January 2021. Experts say oil prices may dip in the near term amid a global surplus but that discounts on Russia’s Urals crude should gradually narrow as companies adapt to sanctions.

Prices for Russian oil fell the most in 2025. The decline was driven by a surplus of supply on the global market and wider discounts on Russian crude relative to international benchmarks due to sanctions. In December 2025, when exporting Urals crude, the discount to the benchmark Brent price exceeded $20 per barrel, the agency’s review noted.

Prices for gas, coal, and petroleum products also declined last year. In particular, spot gas prices in Europe fell by 32% over the course of 2025 to $338.2 per 1,000 cubic meters. In addition, the export price of Russian wheat dropped by 3% to $226.5 per metric ton on an FOB Black Sea basis.

Analysts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that prices for Russian oil, the country’s key export commodity, will increase in 2026.

Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Asset Management, told Vedomosti that in 2026 Brent crude prices could fall to $58-60 per barrel from the current $65-66 per barrel amid a global supply surplus. However, as Russian companies adapt to sanctions, the discount on Urals crude will gradually narrow, according to Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Financial Group, and Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments. According to Finam’s forecast, the average price of Urals crude in 2026 will be $50-53 per barrel.

Prices for petroleum products largely track oil prices, Sergey Kaufman, analyst at Finam Financial Group, noted. Spot gas prices in 2026, despite a supply surplus in the market, will remain close to last year’s levels due to a cold winter, he believes. At the same time, gas prices under contracts linked to oil prices are likely to decline, the expert predicted.

At the same time, changes in Russian coal prices in 2026 will largely be determined by demand trends in China, experts noted.

TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews