MOSCOW, January 16. /TASS/. Iran and the United States have reopened talks on a potential new nuclear-related agreement; European countries have deployed small military contingents to Greenland following stalled US-Danish talks; and Gazprom Neft is nearing the sale of its stake in Serbia’s NIS to Hungary’s MOL. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Tehran, Washington explore path to new agreement while maintaining heightened military readiness

The issue of negotiations between Iran and the United States has unexpectedly returned to the political agenda. Tehran has stated its readiness to guarantee the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, experts told Izvestia that the sides are being restrained not by diplomatic instruments, but by the high risks accompanying the conflict. Moreover, despite softening its rhetoric, the United States is reinforcing its strike capability, and Iran, for its part, is also maintaining its forces in a state of full combat readiness.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia note that the White House interprets the Iranian issue more broadly than the "nuclear file" alone, including, among other things, the need for domestic political changes in Iran. Furthermore, Donald Trump has always been a staunch opponent of the previous deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which included Iran limiting its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

Nikita Degtyarev, Research Coordinator at the Open Nuclear Network, believes that the resumption of a constructive US-Iran dialogue currently appears unlikely, although the chance to return to negotiations still exists.

"The opportunities for a diplomatic settlement are narrowing even further against the backdrop of overall instability in the international environment. However, dialogue cannot be completely ruled out, as internal political and economic instability may push the Iranian leadership toward limited engagement and concessions as a tool to reduce external pressure and stabilize the situation within the country," he said.

"The United States is showing precisely a lack of desire to seriously escalate the situation through a military attack, any kind of bombing, or the infliction of significant damage on Iran’s infrastructure," political scientist Dastan Tokoldoshev told Izvestia.

At the same time, Tehran and Washington are in no hurry to resume contacts, including within the framework of the "Oman format," which functioned until the "12-day war" between Iran and Israel that broke out in June last year. Discussions about new meetings are being conducted cautiously, and lifting sanctions on the republic is being addressed purely in hypothetical terms. At the same time, the US is increasing its presence in the Red Sea, where at least three guided-missile destroyers and a submarine are currently deployed.

Military expert and editor of the Militaryrussia portal Dmitry Kornev believes that the United States could attempt to strike Iran with Tomahawk cruise missiles, as well as through the use of tactical and strategic aviation.

 

Vedomosti: Trump maintains pressure on Denmark as European allies deploy small contingents to Greenland

By January 16, several European countries had already sent their military personnel to Greenland or announced their intention to do so, including Germany, Sweden, France, Norway, and the United Kingdom. This reaction by US allies was prompted by the unproductive talks held on January 14 in Washington between Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen and Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt, on the one hand, and US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on the other. Experts told Vedomosti that Trump is using the Greenland issue largely as leverage and a pressure tactic, leaving room for a commercial or diplomatic deal with Denmark.

Following the meeting, Rasmussen spoke of "fundamental contradictions" and the unchanged US position on the need to obtain the island, while emphasizing the parties’ intention to continue dialogue. Trump, for his part, once again stated that although the United States has good relations with Denmark, it is unable to ensure Greenland’s security.

Trump may already have made a decision regarding Greenland but has left room for maneuver, Pavel Koshkin, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, Trump can skillfully and quickly "change course" and reduce the issue to a deal with Denmark.

"For now, all the hype around Greenland looks more like a PR move and an attempt to intimidate opponents," Koshkin said. At the same time, he noted the risk that Trump could come to believe the mythology he himself has created about threats to Greenland from Russia and China and begin implementing his plan to annex it. However, the expert added that this is unlikely to happen before Trump moves against Iran. He described the ideal option for both sides as a commercial deal and separate diplomatic arrangements to expand US access to Greenland and its resources.

The Greenland issue appears to be essentially settled, Dmitry Novikov, an associate professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, agreed. However, he noted that the Americans are not inclined to carry out a military operation. He also emphasized that the inherent complexity of granting statehood significantly limits the United States’ ability to directly annex the island.

 

Izvestia: US business signals readiness to partner with Russia in Arctic

Economic cooperation between Russia and the United States, following a normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington, could start in the Arctic, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia Robert Agee told Izvestia. The focus would be on resource extraction, including rare earth metals, and Russia has previously stated its readiness to discuss such cooperation. Experts see a range of possible formats - from granting foreign companies access to Russia’s resource base to reviving work within the Arctic Council. However, the launch of projects is hindered by the high cost of extraction and infrastructure limitations, as well as by the dispute over Greenland, which Washington views primarily through a security lens.

Russia and the United States are direct neighbors precisely in the Arctic. Moreover, the region holds vast natural resources, including rare earth metals, access to which is becoming easier as the climate changes, Robert Agee told Izvestia.

"We do not rule out that, after the normalization of interstate relations, the first joint Russian-American projects could be launched specifically in the Arctic. As we know from the media, Russian representatives have already discussed such ideas with their American counterparts," he said.

Moscow could offer American companies the opportunity to gain access to its resource base, Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia.

"This practice is not new for Russia: joint ventures and international consortia in the oil and gas sector have operated before - we can point to the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects, which involved Russian, American, and Japanese companies," he said.

However, trust must first be restored - by resuming cooperation within the Arctic Council and through environmental initiatives, for example, as part of preparations for the Fifth International Polar Year, Roman Zhilin, junior research fellow at the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

 

Kommersant: Gazprom Neft close to selling its stake in Serbia’s NIS to Hungary’s MOL

According to Hungary’s Foreign Ministry, Gazprom Neft is expected to announce in the coming days the sale of its stake in Serbia’s NIS to Hungarian energy group MOL. US sanctions against the Russian company had threatened to force NIS to suspend operations at its refinery. Analysts view MOL as a "comfortable" buyer for Russia that could continue purchasing Russian crude oil, although it may also seek to reduce its dependence on those supplies, Kommersant writes.

MOL is considered a Russia-friendly company, the newspaper writes. In 2024, for example, MOL’s trading arm assumed responsibility for transporting Lukoil crude through the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary via Ukraine after Kiev imposed sanctions on Lukoil.

At the end of 2025, the United States authorized MOL to continue purchasing Lukoil oil - which had previously been placed on the SDN List - until November 21, 2026. MOL also controls a 51% stake in Byteks LLC, which is developing the Baytugan oil field in Russia’s Orenburg Region.

Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University, noted that for Russia, a deal with MOL is a politically acceptable option that helps avoid a forced asset sell-off at a steep discount, as has been happening with Lukoil.

"MOL is the best of the worst options: it is a politically neutral choice, which means the discount will be smaller than the alternatives," he told Kommersant. However, the expert believes that the proceeds from the sale of the NIS stake will almost certainly end up outside Russia’s banking system and remain under restrictions.

The acquisition of NIS, Yushkov believes, would make MOL one of the region’s largest refiners, while supplies of Russian oil to the Serbian refinery could continue via the Druzhba pipeline through Hungary. A source told Kommersant that under MOL’s control, NIS would diversify its supply mix and reduce the share of Russian oil, though it would not necessarily abandon it entirely if a sanctions-compliant import mechanism can be established.

 

Vedomosti: Russia’s oil, gas revenues drop to five-year low in 2025

In 2025, the total volume of oil and gas revenues declined by nearly 24% year on year to 8.48 trillion rubles ($108.8 bln), from 11.131 trillion rubles ($142.8 bln) in 2024, according to data from the Finance Ministry. This figure came in 177 bln rubles ($2.27 bln) below the level projected in the September amendments to the 2025 budget, which had anticipated 8.654 trillion rubles ($111.0 bln). According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, Russia’s oil and gas revenue slump was driven by a combination of lower crude prices, a stronger ruble, OPEC+ production cuts, and temporary supply-chain disruptions.

Additional oil and gas revenues for the past year fell sharply, totaling 84.1 bln rubles ($1.08 bln) compared to 1.3 trillion rubles ($16.68 bln) in 2024. The Finance Ministry had forecast an even smaller amount of 78.3 bln rubles ($1 bln). The ministry attributed this trend to a decline in the average price of Russian crude oil. By the end of December, that price had fallen by 38.24% year-on-year to $39.18 per barrel, according to data from the Ministry of Economic Development.

Oil and gas revenues declined by 24% compared with 2024 due to three factors, Alexander Isakov, Senior Managing Director and Head of the Macroeconomic Research Center at Sber, told Vedomosti. First, the average annual price of Russian export crude fell by 18%. Second, the average annual ruble exchange rate strengthened by 10% against the dollar. Third, oil production declined by 3% as a result of lower quotas under the OPEC+ agreement.

In December, amid US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, supply chains to Asia began to be adjusted, Partner at Kasatkin Consulting Dmitry Kasatkin told the newspaper.

Compared with the approved federal budget, real conditions in 2026 will be more adverse, at least in terms of the average annual dollar price of exported crude oil (about $50 per barrel versus $59 per barrel in the plan), Dmitry Kulikov, Senior Director in the Sovereign Ratings Group at ACRA, told Vedomosti.

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