MOSCOW, December 26. /TASS/. The West spends over $375 billion over the course of Ukraine’s war against Russia; the United States and Europe continue their tech spat; and fears brew about EU collapse. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: West spends over $375 billion on war against Russia

As the debate rages in the West on the use of Russia’s frozen assets, Vedomosti crunched the numbers to get a feel for how the Ukraine aid landscape was changing, if at all. For 2025, the figures thus show a marked decline in support for the embattled country.

NATO countries have provided more than $375 billion in aid to Kiev since 2022, data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Ukrainian Finance Ministry shows. Almost $94 billion was spent on Ukraine annually, which, adjusted for inflation, is about as much as the Americans spent annually on the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars. In 2025, monthly assistance to Ukraine dropped by 11%, from $8.7 billion to $7.7 billion.

On December 19, an EU summit agreed to issue an interest-free loan of 90 billion euros to Ukraine in 2026-2027. Kiev also expected to get 140 billion euros of Russia's frozen assets but Europe could not reach a consensus on that move. EU nations decided against confiscating Russian assets out of concern about lawsuits and retaliatory measures by Russia, which has access to a treasure trove of assets belonging to European investors, said Prokhor Tebin, director of the Military and Economic Research Center at the Higher School of Economics. The move would have undermined trust in the euro as a reserve currency, economist Oleg Komolov pointed out.

Meanwhile, money is not Kiev’s only problem. Although the European Union is bent on militarization, it’s not easy to simultaneously implement contracts meant for European countries, foreign customers, and supplies to Ukraine, Tebin noted. The money allocated is just enough to maintain the army’s viability. No one is talking about an offensive, but efforts are underway to prevent the front from collapsing, Komolov observed.

However, Europe expects to recoup its investment. EU countries seek to claim control over Ukraine’s assets and put their corporations in a favored position after the conflict is over, Komolov explained. The World Bank has estimated the cost of Ukraine’s economic recovery at $524 billion in the next ten years. Those who are providing the most support to Ukraine will be able to play the key role in the process, the economist stressed.

 

Izvestia: United States falls out with Europe

The European Union and the United States are in the midst of an intensifying dispute. Washington has issued entry bans for five EU officials accused of attempts to put pressure on American tech giants. The US authorities claim that Brussels seeks to censor or suppress the American point of view online. The EU, in turn, has condemned Washington’s move, Izvestia reports.

The Donald Trump administration has repeatedly accused the EU of squashing freedom of expression. Most notably, US Vice President JD Vance lashed out at the European Union at the Munich Security Conference in February, Andrey Kortunov, scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out. "He slammed the Europeans for deviating from democracy and violating the principles they were supposed to defend," the political scientist elaborated.

According to the expert, the current US administration sees the EU as one of Washington's key economic competitors. "Trump has repeatedly said that the EU poses more danger to the United States than China and Russia," the political scientist noted.

The expert believes that Trump will try to weaken the European Union in the long term in order to force it to make political, investment, and trade concessions. "The US president would like the Europeans, with their resources, technology, knowledge, experience and money, to serve the US in the first place," the analyst said.

For the past several years, European financiers have been writing about tax and tariff wars between the United States and the European Union, St. Petersburg State University Professor Natalya Yeryomina observed.

"If the US doesn’t like something, it will very quickly raise tariffs on specific goods, particularly produced in the EU. The US protects its domestic market. Washington also understands that it’s possible to continue draining the EU because it still has things to offer, and it wants to force Brussels to play by the rules of the American market," the analyst emphasized.

 

Izvestia: EU faces risk of collapse

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban isn’t optimistic about the European Union’s future, believing it to be on the road towards disintegration. Europe has many problems, first and foremost its stagnating economy, exacerbated by its decision to abandon Russian energy, Izvestia notes.

Experts interviewed by the newspaper agree that a systemic crisis in the EU is becoming increasingly evident, and if Brussels doesn’t make some big changes, Orban’s predictions may well come true.

Most of the EU’s problems stem from poor governance and errors in policy made by Brussels over the past decade, St. Petersburg State University Professor Natalya Yeryomina explained. "Major programs were often adopted without adequate underlying research or sound economic analysis. This is especially true about the green transition and the digital agenda," she specified.

Another factor that experts mention is the European Union’s expansion in 2004. This was when former Soviet countries, namely the three Baltic nations, joined the union. The move significantly weakened Brussels because the new members largely remain aid recipients, siphoning resources.

Today, the EU is facing a situation where conflict-prone border countries are beginning to shape the eastern flank policy for the entire European Union, political commentator Andrey Starikov points out.

It’s possible to find a way out of the situation but it will require much effort. In this regard, experts point to Hungary, which is openly ready to block the decisions it believes don’t benefit its interests.

 

Vedomosti: Will Russia fall into recession in 2026?

Russia is unlikely to fall into recession next year, a group of experts interviewed by Vedomosti said. Investment activity may further cool and the creditworthiness of Russian companies may decline, but these trends will fade as monetary policy is eased, they said.

Economic stagnation and recession look unlikely but threats are coming from a long period of tough monetary policy and labor market shortages, as well as from the consequences of sanctions, Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Astra Asset Management, remarked. Economists also warn that declining oil prices could have a negative impact on the Russian economy. The trend may continue into 2026, leading to lower exports thus cutting into Russian budget revenues, Alfa-Bank Chief Analyst Natalia Orlova noted.

Reviving the economy requires a major reduction in the key interest rate, along with an increase in government spending, said Nikita Kulagin, head of macroeconomic analysis at Sovkombank. Lowering the key rate to 12% by the end of 2026 and easing credit conditions would make it possible to maintain a balance on the consumer market, Alexander Isakov, head of macroeconomic research at Sber, believes. The government has enough tools at its disposal to support the economy, Alexander Shirov, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting, pointed out. In particular, there is a need to implement support programs targeted at core industries.

Ilya Fyodorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investment, highlighted the need to stabilize inflation, reduce real rates, increase investment in market sectors, and improve labor productivity. Isakov added that the creation of national competencies in the field of artificial intelligence and their timely introduction in industries may enhance labor productivity. Kulagin sees facilitating the influx of foreign workforce into the country as another support measure.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ruble strengthens 45% in 2025

The Russian ruble was one of the five best performing assets globally in 2025, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes. According to Bloomberg estimates, the Russian currency skyrocketed by 45% over the year. Data from Russia’s Central Bank confirms the strengthening trend, demonstrating that the ruble has risen by more than 23% against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

A strong ruble is contributing to efforts to contain inflation, experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting explained.

However, big businesses keep calling for lowering the ruble exchange rate. According to Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, it’s not just exporters but also the budget, manufacturers, and the entire economy that could benefit from a weaker ruble because rising export revenues would allow the government to keep taxes at the current level instead of raising them again.

Alexey Rodin, founder of the Rodin.Captial company, says that the majority of experts predict the dollar exchange rate will range between 85 and 94 rubles next year, while in the negative scenario, the dollar may hit the 98-100-ruble level by the end of 2026. "However, we remember that when the rate exceeded the 100-ruble mark, it caused serious concern and the Central Bank did its best to prevent the currency from crossing this psychological threshold," the analyst noted.

The main point is that market participants keep changing their mind on the perfect exchange rate. That said, government agencies will now be tasked with finding a goldilocks zone for the ruble exchange rate, which, on the one hand, would not accelerate inflation and on the other, would benefit businesses, the expert concluded.

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