MOSCOW, December 19. /TASS/. Disagreements over Ukraine policy revealed deep EU divisions; the US approved a record $11.1·bln arms sale to Taiwan; the EAEU and Iran plan to advance the North-South International Transport Corridor, which could reach full capacity by the late 2020s. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: EU rift over Ukraine strategy at Brussels summit

The first day of the EU summit took place in Brussels. Its participants, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, allegedly achieved a breakthrough by agreeing that the seizure of Russian assets would be a fair decision. However, a number of countries remain skeptical of Brussels’ initiative, which Russia openly labels as theft. Such intentions by European leaders only undermine the peace process, Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. In his view, new security guarantees for Ukraine, which were also discussed at the summit, further push back the prospects for a peace settlement, as Brussels is deliberately imposing a condition that is unacceptable to Russia.

European politicians are doing everything they can to prolong the active phase of the Ukrainian conflict, Leonid Slutsky told Izvestia. "Brussels, in essence, is not even trying to hide that it has no intention of engaging in any discussion about peace. All of Donald Trump’s plans to achieve a ‘peace deal’ on the Ukrainian conflict in the foreseeable future will continue to be disrupted by representatives of the European ‘party of war,’" he said.

Although the European Commission has prepared all the necessary documents to push through its idea of confiscation, the interests of EU member states remain deeply divergent, Egor Sergeev, a senior research fellow at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies, told Izvestia.

"For example, while Belgium opposes it, its neighbors, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, support the confiscation and oppose the alternative plan proposed by Belgium. That is, they are against creating a new credit mechanism financed by the EU member states themselves," he explained.

The most pragmatic EU leaders understand what a blow confiscation would deal both to individual countries and to the European Union as a whole, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told the newspaper. "The entire bloc faces a severe reputational and legal crisis that could also develop into a financial one," he said.

The leaders gathered in Brussels also discussed the US peace plan, which appeared in the media in the form of 28 points at the end of November. "Ukraine’s security guarantees cannot be ensured at the expense of Russia’s security. Europeans are putting forward a condition that is deliberately unacceptable in order to once again stall the negotiations," Leonid Slutsky said.

Such steps are being taken to obstruct Trump’s diplomatic mission, Oleg Karpovich believes. In this way, the EU is trying to impose wording that is unacceptable to Russia and that will maximize delays in adopting a final document, a view shared by Egor Sergeev.

 

Vedomosti: Trump greenlights record arms sale to Taiwan to preserve US-favored balance of power in Asia

The US State Department has approved the sale of weapons to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Sales program, totaling $11.1 bln. This is the largest single arms deal in the history of US-Taiwan relations. Under the deal, the island will purchase HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, howitzers, Javelin anti-tank missile systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, as well as other equipment. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti agree that the unprecedented US arms sale to Taiwan is intended primarily as a political signal aimed at deterring China and preserving the regional status quo, while avoiding explicit security guarantees.

Trump and his administration proceed from the assumption that it is necessary to avoid a sharp escalation while simultaneously sending Beijing a message that the potential costs of a force-based scenario for returning the island to Beijing would increase, thereby helping preserve the regional status quo, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Alexey Stepanov told the newspaper.

Against this backdrop, the $11.1 bln deal appears as a demonstrably serious step. Taipei interprets it as yet another confirmation of US security commitments. However, the expert stressed that it does not constitute a direct or unequivocal promise by the United States to "fight for Taiwan." Unlike Joe Biden, who publicly articulated readiness to intervene, Trump avoids issuing an explicit guarantee, maintaining strategic ambiguity.

From the perspective of China’s leadership, the record $11.1 bln package is more a political signal of Washington’s support for Taipei than a factor capable of fundamentally altering the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, senior research fellow at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies Igor Denisov told Vedomosti. For this reason, China’s response will be shaped primarily in the political domain. It should also be taken into account that the practical implementation of deliveries is a lengthy bureaucratic process, giving Beijing sufficient time to adjust its response, including with reference to the broader state of US-China relations. Sanctions tools related to Taiwan arms supplies do exist and have been repeatedly used by Beijing, Denisov noted.

 

Izvestia: EAEU, Iran seek to finalize development of North-South Transport Corridor as strategic trade route

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran plan to address issues related to the development of the North-South International Transport Corridor, Arzybek Kozhoshev, Minister for Energy and Infrastructure of the Eurasian Economic Commission, told Izvestia. According to him, the route is gaining particular importance amid problems affecting the Suez Canal and rising costs. Experts believe that the corridor will begin operating at full capacity in 2027-2029.

"The Suez Canal is currently facing serious problems, and prices have gone up. That is why the North-South corridor is an extremely important issue and will continue to develop. I believe that together with our Iranian colleagues we will settle many matters, including multimodal routes, railways, and tariffs. <…> At present, the negotiations are at an early stage," Arzybek Kozhoshev said.

In his view, Iran plans to join the EAEU in the future. Currently, Tehran holds observer status in the organization. Notably, a full-fledged free trade agreement between Iran and the Union entered into force in May, replacing the interim agreement that had been in effect since 2019.

However, even after the free trade agreement came into force, certain "bottlenecks" remain, related to differences in national standards, the duplication of inspection procedures, and the lack of a unified digital framework for cargo tracking. These factors slow border crossings and offset some of the corridor’s economic advantages, political scientist and lecturer at the Faculty of Economics of RUDN University Farhad Ibragimov told Izvestia.

Despite the fact that disagreements persist between the EAEU and Iran over the project, primarily linked to bureaucratic aspects of the process, both Tehran and the Union’s member states are interested in removing barriers and forming an expanded Eurasian economic space, regional expert and consultant to the PIR Center program "Prospects and Potential for Russia’s Cooperation with the Persian Gulf States on Global Security and High Technologies" Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.

"Given the current trend, one can expect that most of the issues will be settled within the next three to four years," the expert believes.

According to Farhad Ibragimov, the North-South International Transport Corridor could reach full capacity in the medium term, approximately in 2027-2029.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Turkey considers reversing S-400 deal seeking closer ties with Washington over fighter jets

On December 18, the Kremlin stated that the issue of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems purchased by Turkey was not on the agenda of the meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ashgabat. This was a response to a Bloomberg report claiming that during the talks in Turkmenistan, the Turkish leader had proposed that Moscow take back the air defense systems. Such a move would help Turkey regain access to fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets from the United States, which it lost after acquiring the S-400s. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Ankara is indeed convinced that returning the S-400 systems would be the preferred course of action.

According to Bloomberg sources, at the forum in Ashgabat Erdogan proposed that Putin take back the S-400 systems, whose purchase triggered US sanctions against Turkey in 2019. The issue was also discussed at a lower level, the sources claimed. Such a step, as envisioned by Ankara, would allow Turkey to meet Washington’s demands for a complete rejection of Russian military equipment.

Speaking to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Turkish political analyst Kerim Has said that his sources confirm ongoing discussions in Turkey about the need to return the S-400 systems to Russia. "I believe Turkey does indeed want to hand the S-400s back to Russia," the expert said. "Negotiations are underway. Erdogan wants to develop relations primarily with Trump and the United States," he added. For this reason, he noted, discussions in Ashgabat could also have touched on a possible annulment of contracts for Russian gas imports. Such a scenario would be welcomed by the US administration, has said.

"Erdogan is taking into account that he has already sufficiently exploited the S-400 purchase for domestic political purposes. The public was persuaded that Turkey is an absolutely sovereign country. But all of that has run its course. Erdogan has already suppressed his domestic rivals. And now is the ideal time to return the S-400s," the expert said.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Sanctions threats, tanker seizures drive oil price volatility

On Thursday, December 18, oil prices fell below $60 per barrel for Brent crude. A day earlier, prices had risen amid geopolitical risks linked to Russia and Venezuela. Oil prices are fluctuating between gains and losses as market participants try to assess the likelihood and potential consequences of Washington’s confrontation with Caracas, as well as the risks of possible new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. At the same time, experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta point to potential difficulties in replenishing Russia’s federal budget in 2026 due to overly optimistic baseline forecasts for global crude prices.

The overall downward trend in global oil prices is being compounded by market reactions to a potential conflict surrounding Venezuela. However, the oil market will not be influenced by this factor alone. Western agencies have also reported that the United States is working on sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, which could be imposed if Moscow rejects proposals to settle the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, on Thursday the Council of the European Union imposed sanctions on 41 tankers that, according to the European side, were transporting Russian oil in circumvention of existing restrictions.

"Without OPEC+ efforts to stabilize the market, the price decline could resume by the end of the year, with Brent correcting to $58 per barrel. For the coming week, we expect a range of $58-62," lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova told the newspaper.

Antonina Levashenko, head of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, believes that both short-term and long-term factors are currently influencing the oil market. "For example, the rise in oil prices over the past couple of days was driven by reduced supplies from Venezuela amid an escalation of the conflict with the United States and tankers being stuck at sea, which prompted buyers to demand discounts and changes to spot contracts," she noted.

"In November 2025, the average price of Russian oil had already fallen by 6% month-on-month, to $55 per barrel. It can be forecast that prices in Russia will continue to decline in 2026 due to the continued retention of legally established price caps on Russian oil in the United States and European countries, reduced volumes resulting from sanctions-hit supplies (including due to secondary US sanctions), as well as the risk of new US sanctions," she added.

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