MOSCOW, August 6. /TASS/. Russia is preparing to respond to NATO’s nuclear activity, possible consequences of the US-India tariff conflict, and Donald Trump’s standoff with Brazil’s president. These stories topped Wednesday's headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia to respond to NATO nuclear activity

NATO is placing a greater emphasis on expanding the role of nuclear weapons amid preparations for a potential military clash with Moscow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. According to him, in its defense planning, Russia is taking into account the alliance’s actions intended to potentially engage such types of arms. Earlier, several nuclear B61-12 bombs were moved to Great Britain. The bloc’s actions are an attempt to put pressure on Russia during talks on Ukraine while NATO will fail to achieve its goal, experts believe. Moscow has already reacted by lifting a moratorium on deploying intermediate-and shorter-range missiles.

"We are closely assessing the situation and proceed from the fact that the very essence of NATO’s military activity is directed at preparing a potential military clash with Russia," Grushko noted. "All of this is being taken into account in our defense planning and military development," the senior diplomat said, replying to a question by Izvestia.

The deployment of nuclear aerial bombs on British soil was planned many years ago, systematic work has been underway, Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, explained to the newspaper.

"In any case, stable mutual nuclear deterrence between Moscow and Washington persists," the expert believes.

"Deploying US tactical nuclear weapons in the UK, possibly at Lakenheath air base, indicates the first ever increase of the tactical nuclear arms potential in Europe since the end of the Cold War which, without ‘new arrivals’ is about 100-125 units," research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Vasily Klimov told Izvestia.

All of this is unfolding amid the Russian Armed Forces’ successes in the combat zone and their continued advance. Given how rapidly the strategic situation is changing in Ukraine, it is obvious that Russia’s terms of a truce will also shift, which may place the West’s reputation in an even tighter spot, analyst Tigran Meloyan from the HSE Mediterranean Studies Center told the newspaper.

"For instance, Russia may deploy intermediate-and shorter-range missiles not only in the European part but also in the Asian region, begin working on reviving the Anadyr-1 facility in Chukotka from where the missiles are capable of reaching Alaska and the continental US. Back in the day, underground storage facilities at the military base stored nuclear arms, however, in accordance with the INF treaty, they were removed," Meloyan added.

 

Media: How tariff dispute between US, India may impact global trade

The US-Indian trade may decline by percentages if the US administration opts to increase tariffs from 25% to 100%, and New Delhi responds with its own measures, experts polled by Izvestia said. In 2024, the trade turnover amounted to $129 billion. It was not an accident that US leader Donald Trump picked India, as it is China’s geopolitical rival with which the US now wants to reach an agreement on a trade issue. Additionally, the American president wants to put pressure on Russia. However, objectively, the rift between the US and India benefits Russia, the experts believe.

According to Maxim Chirkov, associate professor at the Institute of Economics and Finance of the State University of Management, in the event of 100% tariffs from the US and India’s response measures, the drop in trade may be even greater, "by dozens of percentages." However, such tariffs will seriously harm the US economy most of all, he told Izvestia.

Nevertheless, the US market remains the largest export destination with the share of 18% and it will be tough to replace it at short notice, noted Olga Belenkaya from Finam in a conversation with Izvestia. Donald Trump managed to secure a rather profitable trade agreement with the EU, an ambivalent dialogue with China is ahead, independent analyst Andrey Barkhota pointed out to Izvestia.

"In order to achieve the desired result, the US administration is trying various tricks. The thing is that India is China’s geopolitical rival, while pressure on New Delhi by Washington is also in Beijing’s orbit of interests. Additionally, the US is limiting contacts with Taiwan and extends the effect of more restrained tariffs on imported Chinese products. These steps aim to achieve China’s relative benevolence," the economist explained.

The experts polled by Izvestia are confident that by the end of 2025, the trade turnover between Moscow and New Delhi will definitely grow in any event.

Chirkov added that Russia may also benefit from Trump’s measures as in the conditions of tariffs against trade partners it will purchase products at a discount as the US market will be inaccessible.

With regard to India, Trump is displaying an aggressive style of doing business, Lev Sokolshchik, a researcher at the HSE Center for Comprehensive Economic and Social Studies, told Vedomosti. In the spring, he acted this way with China and then agreed to bargain and backpedaled on the toughest steps on tariffs, the expert added. "It is quite possible that this will be repeated," he said. Sokolshchik added that Trump may have simply overestimated India’s dependence on the US market. "Pressure may result in a serious strategic mistake. India will see the necessity of relying on itself and strengthening ties in BRICS. Even then, compromises with the US are possible but only the pragmatic ones," the expert said, noting that, in the event of a serious falling out with the US, India will also be affected.

 

Vedomosti: By arresting Bolsonaro, Brazil risks fueling conflict with Trump

Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled on August 5 to place former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023) under house arrest. He is accused of attempting a coup d’etat following the 2022 presidential election which he lost to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The court made this decision due to Bolsonaro violating the ban on using social networks.

The situation is additionally intensified by Donald Trump’s decision to introduce 50% tariffs (in effect since August 6) on a significant number of Brazilian goods imported to the US, which is the highest announced by the US leader by August 5. The toughened tariff regime against Brazil was also motivated by Washington criticizing the case against Bolsonaro.

Trump views Lula as an ideological opponent, labeling him "a left-wing radical," according to Vladimir Vasilyev, a senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. Vasilyev noted that in Brazil’s case, the imposition of US tariffs stems from ideological differences rather than purely economic reasons. "Trump is attempting to position Trumpism as a global ideology," he explained. "In his view, economic pressure is a strategic tool to advance political values he considers correct." The expert added that this is why the US president is targeting not only Lula da Silva, but also other left-leaning leaders across the region.

However, neither Trump’s interference, nor Bolsonaro’s house arrest can practically affect the dynamics of Lula’s popularity rating in Brazil, which means that no global changes should be expected, said Viktor Heifets, editor-in-chief of the Latin America journal. He also specified that Lula cannot set Bolsonaro free or otherwise alter his fate as he cannot impact the court ruling.

That said, according to a joint opinion poll conducted by Genial and Quaest in June, 65% of Brazilians do not want to see Bolsonaro run in the 2026 presidential election. In addition to ideological differences with Lula, Trump also has geopolitical ones, Vasilyev added. "For the US, Brazil and the rest of South America are its backyard, where Washington does not want to see either BRICS or, specifically, China," the expert said. In this context, Trump’s attacks on Brazil are a sign to it and its neighbors about the impossibility to leave the US sphere of influence, Vasilyev concluded.

 

Izvestia: Israel is close to complete takeover of Gaza

Israel is considering a scenario of a total occupation of the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to media reports, intends to enlist the support of the cabinet on the issue of taking over the remaining part of the exclave, which reflects a noticeable hardening of Israel’s stance. However, a split is growing between the government and the army: the military command warns of potential risks to hostages. Meanwhile, Hamas refuses to disarm, an Israeli source told Izvestia. Against this background, Egypt has openly expressed dissatisfaction with the statements made by the Palestinian movement.

At the same time, an Israeli diplomatic source told Izvestia that a final decision on the transition to full occupation has not yet been made. According to him, discussions in political and military circles are continuing. Currently, the Israeli army controls about 75% of the exclave’s territory, but the new plan involves capturing the remaining areas, bringing the sector completely under Israeli control.

Hamas is not ready to disarm and dismantle its military wing, and this is a fundamental condition without which no long-term agreement is possible, an Israeli diplomatic source told Izvestia. That said, according to the Israeli press, US Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff said on August 2 during a visit to Tel Aviv that Hamas was expressing readiness for demilitarization.

In a conversation with Izvestia, Palestinian political analyst Hani Salah stressed that Hamas has already shown a willingness to compromise by agreeing to release a group of around ten Israeli hostages as part of a potential deal. He noted, however, that this remains only a preliminary framework rather than a finalized agreement. According to Salah, the Palestinian side is insisting on precise legal language to prevent any future disputes over the interpretation of the terms.

 

Kommersant: South Caucasus changes patrons

The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, will visit Washington this week to meet US President Donald Trump. A memorandum of intention to conclude a peace treaty may be signed between Yerevan and Baku at the meeting. A high-ranking diplomatic source told the newspaper of preparations for the unpublicized visit. The document in the making is not a peace treaty, but the very fact of its signing in the White House will allow Donald Trump to present himself as a peacemaker, this time in the South Caucasus, while Yerevan and Baku, going through a tough spot in relations with Moscow, are displaying readiness to recognize the US as the region’s main broker.

Additionally, Baku hopes that the US will help resolve the issue of transport links in the region. "Thus, the idea of a new transport corridor emerged, ‘Trump’s Bridge,’ which can potentially reshape the situation in the region," an informed source told Kommersant.

According to the source, while it will be difficult to implement this idea due to several factors and resistance from a number of regional players, including Iran, this at least means two things. First of all, it is Washington’s interest to come to the Caucasus region in a major way and for a long time. Secondly, the US’ readiness for institutional participation in regional logistics processes. "Thus, Washington may attempt to become a new moderator in the South Caucasus, being ready to use the difficult stage of relations between Moscow and both Yerevan and Baku," the source concluded.

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