MOSCOW, July 16. /TASS/. Trump’s new framework of arms supplies to Ukraine, the potential fallout of new tariffs against Russia’s trade partners, and OPEC signals openness to new members. These stories topped Wednesday's headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Military aspect of Trump’s statements on Russia

US President Donald Trump, during a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on July 14, threatened the introduction of 100% secondary tariffs, presumably, on the countries purchasing Russian energy products, if a "deal" on Ukraine is not reached within 50 days. Speaking of this, he yet again emphasized his "disappointment" with Russia’s stance on this issue. The US leader also announced a new initiative of weapons deliveries to NATO allies which will ensure the continued arming of Ukraine.

Russia needs time to analyze Trump’s statements, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also commented on the situation. "Certainly, we would like to understand what is behind this statement about 50 days. Earlier, there were also the deadlines of 24 hours and of 100 days, we’ve seen it all and really would like to understand the reasoning of the US president," he noted. In turn, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stressed that any attempts to present demands to Moscow are inadmissible and Russia wants the US and NATO to treat its position with the utmost seriousness.

The plan, outlined by Trump and Rutte, provides for selling US weapons to NATO countries, part of which they may hand over to the Kiev regime for free at their discretion, said corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Sergey Sudakov. "This will basically not affect the situation on the battlefield in any way," he noted. The expert pointed out that the US will make more on this deal than with regular deliveries as the surcharge may be overstated. This is possible because initially Washington’s priorities in arms supplies involved Israel and US allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Thus, the Europeans will hand over obsolete weapons to the Kiev regime, replacing their stockpiles with new US arms.

Sudakov emphasized that new European weapon supplies will be carried out alongside with the deliveries to Ukraine approved during the Biden administration. "The difference is that, according to Biden’s packages, the US is using its warehouses, handing over weapons directly for free, while with the new arrangement, the Europeans will pay for arms and, if they so decide, hand them over to Kiev," the expert explained.

If the Europeans hand over the weapons they have to Ukraine while replenishing their stockpiles with the new US arms, the Kiev regime is unlikely to feel any serious delays in supplies, said Igor Shkrobtak, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. However, if this involves delivering new weapons via NATO countries as well, this may take more time. Despite the possibility that Kiev may receive new arms in addition to those supplied under earlier agreements, the situation on the battlefield is unlikely to change dramatically, although the possibility of an escalation is not ruled out, the expert concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Experts see no threats in Trump’s tariffs against Russia’s trade partners

The introduction of new US tariffs against the countries that purchase Russian energy products will not significantly impact the Russian economy, experts, polled by Vedomosti, said. They noted that exports from Russia may decline as a result but do not anticipate their complete suspension and forecast the emergence of roundabout delivery routes.

US President Donald Trump overstates the US sanctions’ potential of impacting the foreign trade of the countries that are not direct trade partners with the US, believes Yulia Davydova, director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. The threat of introducing 100% tariffs for Russia’s trade partners appears to be more of a political pressure tool rather than a realistic measure, added Anna Fedyunina, deputy director of the Institute for Structural Policy Research at HSE University.

The threat appears to be quite realistic even though less likely compared to complete inaction or significantly softer measures, and the US itself is ready for concessions, realizing that wide-scale tariffs will above all harm the US economy, believes Dmitry Kuznetsov, a researcher with the International Trade Research Laboratory at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).

The tariffs will necessitate seeking new logistics loopholes but will not halt supplies, Davydova asserted. Fedyunina also believes that the complete cessation of trade is unlikely due to the flexibility of Russian exporters. It is also necessary to keep in mind that companies in other countries have their own expertise of working under various restrictions. Davydova added that the 50-day deadline gives time to prepare to mitigate potential harm to Russia and its trade partners.

 

Izvestia: OPEC open to new members

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is always open to new members if they meet all the necessary criteria and goals, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais has said. He noted that negotiations are currently underway with many countries, especially in the African continent.

The countries of the Global South, primarily African oil producers, have the greatest potential to join OPEC, Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, told the newspaper. However, so far, the probability of their joining is relatively low, because it is difficult for them to adhere to the organization’s discipline due to macroeconomic conditions.

"Two things are important to note here. First of all, their talk about their potential entry indicates the rapid development of the countries of the Global South; something that previously seemed incredible now appears possible. Secondly, if production in the United States really begins to decline by 2030, OPEC has a chance not only to increase its market share by more than 50%, but also to rapidly raise it and bring it closer to 60%. But in the next three years, we do not see any significant potential for OPEC expansion," the expert noted.

The OPEC+ format is likely to expand in the coming years, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, told Izvestia. OPEC itself is unlikely to expand the circle of its members due to stringent membership requirements.

 

Izvestia: Russia’s gold reserves hit record highs

Russia's gold reserves have reached a record high of almost $249 billion, according to the Central Bank’s data analyzed by Izvestia. Now it is the most secure asset against the background of the fact that Russia's savings in Western currencies have been blocked. Over the past six months, the gold reserves have increased by 27%. The main reasons are the increase in the value of precious metals due to geopolitical uncertainty worldwide and the accumulation of the reserves themselves. The Central Bank is increasing the share of gold in its reserves, which has reached its highest level in a quarter of a century in recent months.

Gold and foreign currency reserves are the regulator’s stockpiles, which include foreign currency, Russian rubles, special drawing rights, reserve positions in the IMF, and gold. They are used to maintain financial stability, service external debt, conduct currency interventions, and can also be used to finance the consequences of any emergency, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. This is a kind of the country’s financial buffer, added Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of the Anderida Financial Group.

Therefore, during prosperous times, it makes sense to increase reserves, while in the situation of an increasing budget deficit, they can be used to cover some of the expenses, independent expert Andrey Barkhota added. The reserves are also used to stabilize the exchange rate and support the economy.

Tarapovsky emphasized that the trend of replenishing reserves began immediately after February 2022, when part of the reserves in unfriendly currencies was frozen. One of the obvious ways out of this situation was gold, which is optimal as a protective asset under the conditions of foreign trade restrictions and political instability, he added.

Russia is currently betting on gold primarily because of limited access to foreign exchange reserves, as well as in order to protect against inflation, support its own production, processing, as well as strengthen the ruble collateral, Svetlana Frumina from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics believes.

"Gold is a universal and sovereign asset, free from any obligations of issuers and the risk of freezing. Its investment attractiveness is increasing against the background of expected inflation and the increased volatility on financial markets," the expert added.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: MAX messaging service to evolve into digital platform

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed an order on developing a multifunctional service of information exchange. MAX, developed by the VK holding, will become the national messaging service. The platform resembles China’s WeChat, comprising a messaging service, a social network, and a state services portal in a single interface.

"MAX is not just an alternative to popular messaging services but a completely different level of interaction between state or commercial services and users. Thanks to verification through the state services portal, the level of online trust and security is higher because a user knows for sure that he is not interacting with scammers," State Duma (lower house of parliament) member Anton Nemkin said.

Experts urge to be more measured about the possibilities of the MAX platform, which is only at its inception and is being beta-tested. According to Director of the Association of Professional Users of Social Networks and Messengers Vladimir Zykov, the platform’s full potential will be implemented much later.

"The key task today is not so much to demonstrate the product’s perfection but to begin gaining audience and testing the basic modules on actual users. In this sense, MAX aligns with expectations," Zykov noted.

The experts pointed out that the national messaging service is a definite indicator of the country’s advancing digital sovereignty.

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