MOSCOW, July 14. /TASS/. Russia plans to continue direct negotiations with Ukraine, although no date has been set; Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reasserted Russia’s strategic alliance with North Korea and advanced preparations for the upcoming SCO summit in China; and the US posted a rare budget surplus in June fueled by increased tariff revenues. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia intends to continue direct talks with Ukraine despite mixed signals from Kiev and Washington

Russia plans to maintain direct negotiations with Ukraine, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. However, a date for the third round of talks has not yet been set. At the same time, Ukrainian officials are threatening new long-range strikes on Russian territory. The negotiation process is further complicated by the unclear stance of Washington: on the one hand, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed a "new approach" to resolving the conflict during a meeting in Kuala Lumpur; on the other, the United States has announced plans to increase arms supplies to Kiev.

"There is an understanding that direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will continue," Galuzin told Izvestia, having participated in the previous two meetings in Istanbul.

The Kremlin is currently awaiting signals from Kiev that would indicate a willingness to resume direct talks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities maintain that the third round can only begin once the agreed prisoner exchanges have been completed.

Ukraine is showing an unwillingness to negotiate, political analyst Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, told the newspaper. "We are not being promised anything, while the demands outlined [in the Ukrainian memorandum on a ceasefire] effectively amount to our capitulation," the expert emphasized.

Following Ukraine’s logic, the outcome of the conflict would be a temporary suspension of hostilities rather than a true resolution, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government Denis Denisov told Izvestia.

Ukraine’s next steps in the negotiation process cannot be assessed without taking into account the position of the United States, which remains Kiev’s primary ally, albeit not without reservations. Recently, Washington’s actions have appeared increasingly inconsistent. According to experts, the absence of a clear American stance further complicates the atmosphere ahead of a possible third round of negotiations.

"Russia’s position remains unchanged, as we can judge from official statements. Ukraine’s position also remains the same. But does the United States even have a coherent position? They give us no reason to believe that one exists. What we see is a collection of impulsive demands and slogans," Denis Denisov added.

 

Vedomosti: Lavrov visits North Korea and China, reaffirming ties with Pyongyang, preparing SCO Summit

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to China began on July 13, and on July 15 he will take part in the meeting of foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Chinese city of Tianjin. In Beijing, Lavrov held talks on July 13 with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. Earlier, on July 12, Lavrov met in North Korea with Chairman of State Affairs Kim Jong Un. At that meeting, Lavrov reaffirmed that Moscow remains committed to all agreements reached in the course of bilateral contacts with Pyongyang. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe China is asserting itself as a leader within the SCO through broad-based regional initiatives, while both China and Russia are deepening strategic and economic ties with key partners - Beijing through Global South dialogue and Moscow through its expanding partnership with Pyongyang.

China is particularly interested in further deepening economic cooperation within the SCO framework, Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. Beijing is especially focused on collaboration in the areas of innovation and security.

Within the SCO, China, currently holding the chairmanship, has become a driving force behind the implementation of comprehensive programs encompassing politics, security, economic cooperation, and civilizational dialogue, said Alexander Lomanov, Head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said.

In addition, Beijing is keen to ensure that the upcoming SCO summit in September is conducted in an organized and dignified manner, showcasing its ability to host major international forums. According to the expert, China uses the SCO as a platform to emphasize civilizational dialogue - not along the traditional West-East divide, but within the Global South community.

Meanwhile, contacts between Russia and North Korea are developing at an intensive pace and there is no reason to believe this momentum will slow, Associate Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO University Ilya Dyachkov told the newspaper. Bilateral ties are diverse, and the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty has given a strong boost to cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. According to the expert, such treaties are signed only when there is a solid foundation for a serious bilateral partnership.

 

Vedomosti: Trump’s tariff policy triggers rare June budget surplus

For the first time since 2016, the United States recorded a budget surplus in June, with revenues exceeding expenditures by $27.2 bln, whereas in May the deficit stood at $316 bln. These figures are reflected in the latest data from the US Department of the Treasury. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that while Trump’s tariff policy may offer short-term fiscal benefits, it does little to enhance trade relations or industrial competitiveness and could lead to prolonged global trade tensions with no clear long-term economic advantage.

According to Treasury data, revenue from existing tariffs increased once again, reaching $113.3 bln (gross) for the first time in the current fiscal year, an outcome that directly contributed to the surplus. As reported by Reuters, import tariffs have now become the fourth-largest source of federal revenue. Their share of federal government income has risen to 4.9%, up from an average of 2% over the past 25 years.

Whether the current tariffs are truly helping to address the budget deficit, however, will only become clear in July or August, despite June’s unexpected figures, independent investment consultant Andrey Kochetkov told Vedomosti. "In the United States, budget surpluses usually occur in April due to the filing of individual income taxes, so a surplus in June is indeed unusual, although it does not necessarily indicate anything conclusive just yet," the expert noted. In his view, if the positive trend does not persist through the summer, there will be little reason to believe that Trump’s current trade strategy will succeed in the future.

"In trade terms, the United States is losing. The Europeans are willing to negotiate over items like brandy or bourbon, but when it comes to major sectors such as automobiles or electronics, they push back much harder," Kochetkov added. As a result, one of the most likely effects of the tariffs will be short-lived relief for American producers, such as automakers, but in the long run, this will ultimately harm American industry, which requires both innovation and a certain degree of competition, the expert said.

Donald Trump is using tariffs not so much as a trade policy tool, but rather as a fiscal mechanism to plug holes in the federal budget, Chief Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vladimir Vasiliev noted. "Balance of trade imbalances cannot be resolved by such methods, but temporary budget shortfalls can be covered, which marks a redefinition in the purpose of tariffs," he said. Vasiliev believes that the global economy is therefore entering an era of permanent trade wars. "If the Trump administration is truly using tariffs for fiscal policy rather than to correct the trade balance, then expecting any genuine trade agreements is pointless. There will be only ultimatums," he concluded.

 

Kommersant: Russia maintains oil export momentum with Southern route boost, braces for EU cap adjustments

Russian oil exports from the southern port of Novorossiysk nearly doubled in the first week of July, offsetting declines along other routes. Experts interviewed by Kommersant now anticipate export volumes to stabilize in the near term at 4.55-4.75 mln barrels per day. According to their assessments, a potential introduction by the European Union of a flexible price cap with a $15-per-barrel discount is unlikely to disrupt these volumes.

Between June 30 and July 6, the average daily loading of Russian oil at domestic ports rose by 0.5% compared to the previous week, reaching 414,000 metric tons per day, according to the Center for Price Indices (CCI). Shipments from Novorossiysk alone surged nearly twofold over the week to 101,000 tons per day, nearing this year’s peak levels.

David Martirosyan, an analyst at the CCI, noted that from July 2024 to June 2025, average monthly oil exports from Novorossiysk ranged between 43,000 and 68,000 tons per day. On average, the port dispatches about three tankers per week, he said. Andrey Smirnov, a stock market expert at BCS, attributes the increased shipments from Novorossiysk to strong demand from Turkey and India, as well as a possible partial redirection of cargo flows from Baltic ports to the southern route. The unidentified buyers, he speculates, could include Singapore or another Asian oil trading hub, following a logistical model frequently used when working with intermediary traders, he added.

Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, believes that export levels are likely to remain relatively stable in the short term, partly because Russia has not yet increased oil production within the OPEC+ framework due to the ongoing compensation program, which is expected to conclude in September or October. According to Smirnov, July is expected to see exports stabilize at around 4.55-4.75 mln barrels per day. In the short term, he added, a sudden surge in demand is possible due to market expectations of tighter sanctions and the uncertainty surrounding the EU’s new floating price cap mechanism.

The expert believes that the introduction of a floating price cap is unlikely to significantly impact either the volume or pricing of Russian oil exports. Should the cap be adjusted, he noted, logistical costs may increase, but this would primarily affect shipping companies rather than end buyers.

 

Izvestia: Russia to open Russian House in UAE, signaling Gulf Region strategic and cultural outreach

A Russian House is set to open in the United Arab Emirates between 2026 and 2027, Izvestia was told by Rossotrudnichestvo, the federal agency responsible for promoting Russia’s international humanitarian cooperation. A representative of the agency may soon begin work as part of the Russian Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the future, a similar public cultural center could be launched in Saudi Arabia. Experts interviewed by Izvestia noted that Russia is steadily strengthening cultural ties with the countries of the Persian Gulf, with Moscow’s long-term goal being to establish enduring and deeply rooted ties in the region.

"The diplomatic mission is based in Abu Dhabi, but our representative will conduct most of the work in Dubai, which has a large Russian-speaking community. An intergovernmental agreement is necessary for the official launch of a Russian House, and such agreements are never concluded quickly. We are hoping for 2026-2027," the agency stated.

The development of cultural and humanitarian ties would not be possible without a deepening political dialogue. The UAE has long been a hub for Russian investment and ranks first among Arab countries in terms of capital inflows into the Russian economy, the newspaper writes.

"Russia is working to combine traditional diplomatic tools with instruments of soft power, and the growing presence of Russian Houses in the Middle East is a logical trend within this strategy," Orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. "Russia’s long-term goals include securing a lasting role in regional affairs and positioning itself not only as a political mediator in the Middle East but also as one of the key players influencing cultural trends," he added.

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