MOSCOW, December 17. /TASS/. Russia outlines its defense strategy amid preparations for a potential conflict with NATO; the EU introduces a fresh round of sanctions against Russia; and Syria moves forward with plans to hold a referendum on its future system of governance. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Russia braces for potential NATO conflict within a decade

The number of US troops deployed in Europe has exceeded 100,000, and "NATO's ambitions have long surpassed the so-called zone of its historical responsibility," Vladimir Putin said at the annual meeting of the Defense Ministry's board of directors on December 16. According to Minister Andrey Belousov, the Defense Ministry must be prepared for any scenario, including a conflict with NATO in the next decade, which is indicated in the doctrinal documents of the North Atlantic Alliance, Vedomosti writes.

At the same time, as Belousov noted, Russia's military spending will reach 6.4% of its GDP in 2025, or account for 32.5% of federal budget expenditures. But Russia will not engage in an arms race, and military spending will not grow indefinitely, the president emphasized. However, in response to the preparations of the US and NATO, Russia must primarily maintain the combat readiness of its strategic nuclear forces, Putin stressed.

The deployment of intermediate-range missiles with conventional (non-nuclear) armament, which the president highlighted, among other things, leads to an increase in the capabilities of the general-purpose forces and "lengthens" the path to the threshold beyond which nuclear weapons are used, Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti. "Anything larger than an anti-tank missile has a nuclear version, so something like that is probably planned for the hypothetical Oreshnik," he said.

At the same time, arms control agreements are unlikely after Donald Trump returns to the White House, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, told the newspaper. The donors of Trump's election campaign include large military-industrial corporations that are interested in the production of weapons.

Ruslan Pukhov, Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, believes that since the Russian military-political leadership does not intend to allow uncontrolled growth of military spending on new weapons, the basis for responding to the increased anti-Russian NATO and US activities includes measures in the field of nuclear deterrence - both strategic and non-strategic.

Belousov also stressed that the key measures that must be implemented, based on the experience of the special military operation, include the need to disperse large warehouses, bases, and arsenals into a multi-layered system of smaller logistics centers and to strengthen their air defenses in order to reduce the threat from enemy drones.

Finally, the defense minister announced a new branch of the armed forces - the "unmanned systems troops." According to Viktor Murakhovsky, editor of the magazine Arsenal of the Fatherland, during the formation of this branch of the armed forces, brigades of unmanned aerial vehicles will be created in all combined arms armies.

 

Izvestia: EU introduces new package of anti-Russian sanctions

The new sanctions are not groundbreaking and have already become a routine measure for Brussels, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. On December 16, the EU authorities approved the 15th package of anti-Russian sanctions, which targets 30 companies and 54 individuals. In addition, restrictions were imposed on dozens of ships from third countries that, according to the EU, help Moscow bypass restrictions on Russian oil supplies.

As expected, in addition to defense contractors, shipping companies involved in transporting Russian crude oil and oil products were sanctioned. The new restrictions impacted 52 tankers from third countries.

Notably, the list also included two senior officials from North Korea. The European Council statement also noted that, for the first time, the EU had imposed broad sanctions on various Chinese entities accused of supplying drone components and other microelectronic components.

The restrictions further targeted 32 companies based in China, India, Iran, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates, among other countries. The EU alleges that these firms circumvent trade restrictions by purchasing dual-use goods for Russia.

The new list of restrictions aligns with what can be described as a gradual escalation of sanctions, as the EU authorities continue to extend restrictions to additional major companies, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Timofeev told Izvestia.

"We see a gradual expansion of the lists of blocked individuals, including Russia’s partners in third countries. We see an expansion of export restrictions on individual companies from third countries and restrictions on oil tankers, which are considered part of the so-called Russian shadow fleet. All this was predictable, and so far, we see no major shifts," the expert noted.

The new package of EU sanctions is "technical" and procedural, Alexander Rudoy, an expert from the Department of International Cooperation at the State University of Management, told the newspaper. "Some items were added, others adjusted. The European Union is trying to further complicate the operations of Russian companies in the international arena," he said.

As part of the 15th package, the EU also adopted measures aimed at "shielding European companies" from legal disputes with their Russian counterparts. According to Ivan Timofeev, this is largely symbolic, since the decisions of Russian arbitration courts are already widely ignored in EU countries.

 

Izvestia: Syria to hold referendum on future form of government

Syria is on the verge of a significant political transformation that could shape the country's future for decades to come. As part of the transitional phase aimed at reforming the state after six decades of Ba’ath Party rule, a constituent assembly will be formed to draft a new constitution. This process will culminate in a referendum where Syrians will vote on the future form of government, Anas al-Abdah, a member of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, told Izvestia. He also expressed support for the Kurdish population's right to participate in the country’s political life.

"During the transitional period, a constituent assembly will be formed to draft a modern constitution for Syria, based on the principles of freedom, equal citizenship, and non-discrimination on any grounds. As a result of the assembly’s work, a proposal may outline the nature of the future political system, be it presidential, parliamentary, or mixed," Anas al-Abdah said in an interview with Izvestia.

On December 10, the formation of a temporary transitional government in Syria was announced. "This government is intended to remain in place until next March to prevent a power vacuum and the collapse of state institutions and the economy. The formation of this temporary government should be seen in this context - it is necessary to buy time until comprehensive consultations are held on establishing a transitional government responsible for managing the reform process," he explained.

"The new Syrian government has already partially delivered on its promises to curb the spread of violence in Syria and to restore state institutions, Syrian expert Mohammed Nadir Al-Amri told Izvestia.

Syrian activist Kamal al-Labwani told the newspaper that the country's population lacks experience with democratic governance, which is a completely new concept for Syria. According to him, "many people are uncertain about what comes next."

Special attention during the transitional period will be given to resolving the status of the Kurds, which is considered one of the most complex issues in the country’s political landscape.

"We support the rights of all parts of Syrian society, including the Kurds, to political participation and equal citizenship. These rights must be enshrined in the Constitution and relevant laws, while maintaining the unity of the Syrian people and the integrity of Syrian territory," Anas al-Abdah told Izvestia.

 

Vedomosti: What lies ahead for Vietnam if Donald Trump returns to the White House

Vietnam, which reaped significant economic gains during the first tariff war initiated by Donald Trump against China in 2018, may face setbacks from a new round of the US-China trade conflict, Vedomosti writes.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the incoming US administration, set to take office in January 2025, plans to block opportunities for Chinese companies to relocate production to Vietnam for duty-free exports. Earlier, Trump's nominee for US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, explicitly stated that the US must shut down bypass routes through third countries that allow duty-free shipments of goods containing significant Chinese components or produced by Chinese subsidiaries.

In theory, Vietnam and Mexico could be among the hardest hit by such measures, WSJ journalists believe. Additionally, Vietnam currently exports to the US at a rate nine times higher than it imports.

After Trump’s 2016 election victory, Vietnam initially faced significant concerns about the trajectory of its economy, as tensions ran high early in his presidency. However, in the end, the country benefited substantially from economic shifts between 2017 and 2021, Mikhail Terskikh, a research fellow at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti.

"It seems to me that even now, these fears are largely overstated - companies will continue to move production to Vietnam because it is profitable both for them and for the Vietnamese," the expert explained. At the same time, Vietnam retains the most labor-intensive and least advanced segments of production chains - while this can generate short-term profits, it risks solidifying Vietnam’s role as a peripheral player in the global division of labor, he added.

The relocation of production to Vietnam is ongoing, and the country is actively targeting investments from American high-tech companies, Ekaterina Koldunova, Director of the ASEAN Center at MGIMO University, told the newspaper. However, during Trump’s first term, he promptly launched legal actions against East and Southeast Asian nations with large trade surpluses with the US. Therefore, similar pressure will likely be applied to Hanoi once again, she concluded.

 

Kommersant: Moldova could face Russian gas cutoff in January

Moldova risks losing gas supplies from Russia in January 2025, as Gazprom has not reserved guaranteed capacities of the TurkStream for exports to the country at the beginning of the year, Kommersant reports. This route was considered an alternative to the Ukrainian transit route, which expires at the end of 2024. A state of emergency in Moldova’s energy sector has already been declared, and if supplies are cut off, the unrecognized Transnistrian region will be hit hardest. Despite the worsening situation, Moscow and Chisinau have not yet resumed high-level negotiations on gas supplies.

According to Kommersant, during talks in Moscow in late November, the TurkStream was proposed as a replacement for Ukrainian transit, which is set to end on January 1, 2025. At that time, Gazprom reaffirmed its commitment to supply Transnistria with at least 5.7 million cubic meters of gas per day, or approximately 2 billion cubic meters annually. However, the company conditioned the continuation of supplies on resolving Moldova's historical debt to Gazprom, estimated at $709 million.

At the end of 2022, Gazprom reduced gas supplies to Moldova by half, citing the blocking of one of the two entry points to the export pipeline by the Ukrainian side. Following this, Russian gas was delivered to Transnistria exclusively via Ukraine in amounts of about 5.7 million cubic meters per day, compared to the contracted 9 million cubic meters. During this period, Chisinau began purchasing gas on the European market.

However, according to one of Kommersant's sources, without revenues from the "gas account" - part of the budget in the unrecognized republic funded by profits from the Cuciurgan power plant - inflation in Transnistria could exceed 100% in January, and electricity tariffs in Moldova could rise severalfold. "If there is no gas in Transnistria, migration from the left bank to the right bank of the Dniester will begin," the source told Kommersant.

Vitaly Ermakov, an expert from the Higher School of Economics, pointed out that the transit problem through Ukraine will persist even if the Southern Gas Corridor and the Trans-Balkan pipeline in reverse mode are utilized. "Gas supplies from Romania via the Iasi-Chisinau pipeline will be costly, and its capacity is insufficient. In this case, Moldova will need to decide which priority takes precedence: gas for heating or for power generation," he told Kommersant.

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