MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Kiev as the outgoing US president, Joe Biden, grants pardon to his son Hunter. Meanwhile, Russia fails to be elected to the Executive Council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons due to three countries. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines in Russia.

 

Izvestia: Scholz's first visit to Kiev in two and a half years

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who recently discussed the Ukraine crisis with Russian President Vladimir Putin, is trying to show his electorate that he is seeking to contribute to ending the conflict, which certainly has a negative impact on Germany itself. This is why, on December 2, he arrived in Kiev for an unexpected visit — his first in two and a half years.

"Showing readiness to resolve the Ukraine conflict diplomatically, which aligns with the request of part of the German electorate, is an element of the election campaign for the Social Democrats and Chancellor Scholz personally," Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, explained to Izvestia.

Friedrich Merz, nominated for chancellor by the CDU/CSU opposition bloc, is seen as an alternative to Scholz, even though many believe that, if elected, he could escalate things further in Ukraine, German political analyst Eik Hammer says. Therefore, demonstrating an interest in resolving the conflict may give Scholz and his party more brownie points.

Discussing the sending of Western long-range weapons to Ukraine is equally important in the context of Scholz’s visit to Ukraine. While Germany still refuses to send Taurus missiles to Kiev, Berlin announced a €650 million military aid package to Kiev on Monday. It will include IRIS-T air defense systems, Leopard 1 tanks, and surveillance and strike drones. The latest opinion poll conducted by Infratest dimap for ARD television showed that as many as 60% of Germans oppose sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

The €650 million package for Kiev will not affect the special military operation, nor will it alter the course of hostilities. However, Scholz may be trying to avoid being associated with the "European traitors" who fail to provide Ukraine with what it has demanded. Scholz’s visit and the latest military aid are directly linked to the election campaign in Germany. "Scholz needs to make the most of his status as [German] chancellor to raise both his personal approval ratings and the standing of the Social Democratic Party. His telephone conversation with Putin and visit to Kiev are part of the same strategy. Scholz finds it important to show that under his leadership, Germany is becoming a major player with decisive political weight in Europe," political analyst Yevgeniya Pimenova told Izvestia.

 

Vedomosti: Biden grants pardon to his son Hunter

US President Joe Biden pardoned his son in gun and tax evasion cases despite repeated pledges not to do so previously. In 2023-2024, White House Spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre mentioned it six times, Fox News has calculated. According to the New York Times (NYT), even as Biden Jr. faced 25 years behind bars, this prison term could have been shortened. Biden himself claimed his son had been "selectively, and unfairly, prosecuted."

By signing a pardon for his son, Biden also protected him from prosecution after Donald Trump takes office, for Trump will not be able to reverse this decision or launch a new probe, Politico reported. However, the US president-elect could pardon other people — for example, participants in the storming of the Capitol Building in Washington on January 6, 2021. In the past few decades, only one person has been given a comprehensive presidential pardon, namely US President Richard Nixon, who was pardoned by the then-leader, Gerald Ford, Politico added.

The pardon for Hunter Biden has a negative impact for the outgoing president in political terms, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. Biden was not a successful president in the eyes of Democrats, as he not only led his party to defeat in the election but also put Trump back in the White House. Moreover, Biden demonstrated how corrupt the highest echelons of power are. Hence, by pardoning his son, the president forced the Democratic Party to distance itself from him, Vasilyev concluded.

The pardon Biden signed for his own son will raise even more doubts as to whether Hunter is actually guilty under American law, said Andrey Kortunov, research director of the Russian International Affairs Council. And yet, Biden is unlikely to be remembered exclusively in the context of pardoning his son. It is more a question of ethics than politics, as Biden Sr. clearly uses his power. Even as the move would hardly have any legal implications, it has certainly inflicted reputational damage on the president, the expert argued.

 

Izvestia: Russia fails to secure seat on OPCW executive council due to three countries

Russia failed to be elected to the Executive Council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), because the United States, Great Britain, and France pressured member countries to vote against it, Russian Ambassador to the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW Vladimir Tarabrin said in an interview with Izvestia. "Western countries staged individual and collective protests <…> and they sometimes forced [OPCW members] - and we know it for a fact - to vote for Czechia and North Macedonia. Some ambassadors have told me how obsessed Western countries have been in their desire to deprive Russia of membership in the Executive Council," the diplomat said.

As a result, Russia garnered 56 votes, while the Czech Republic and North Macedonia collected 128 and 86 votes, respectively, securing seats in the body from Eastern Europe. The vote for North Macedonia, which has no weight in issues related to chemical weapons, seems especially absurd to Igor Nikulin, a former member of the United Nations Disarmament Commission. "These two countries are needed [in the Executive Council] to vote for what they are told. And this is yet another attempt to isolate Russia," he explained to Izvestia.

Meanwhile, the use of chemical weapons by Ukraine has been a very pressing issue, given how actively Ukrainian troops have been using them. On December 2, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s special envoy for the crimes of the Kiev regime, presented evidence of the massive use of chemical weapons produced both in Ukraine and in the West. According to him, in the past summer alone, more than 400 instances of the use of such weapons were registered.

While the OPCW has chosen to ignore Russia’s reports about the use of chemical weapons by Ukraine, Moscow finds it necessary to remain a member to prevent a small group of Western countries led by the United States from trying to "privatize" the organization. "We are set to make every effort to prevent the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) from becoming an obedient instrument for promoting the West’s geopolitical ambitions," Tarabrin emphasized.

According to Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former United Nations Under-Secretary and ex-Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, membership in the OPCW will help Russia to attain its goals anyway. "This [membership] will allow us to convey an alternative stance and, ideally, to endorse the necessary decisions which would meet our interests," he told Izvestia. "While we must admit that the West has succeeded in squeezing us out of certain international organizations, we must resist this. And membership in the CWC and participation in the work of the OPCW meets not only Russia’s political but also its economic interests," he said.

 

Media: Iran expands military support to Syria amid rising tensions

Iran is prepared to boost its military assistance to Syria in response to a large-scale offensive by radical groups that have been active in northwestern Syria since November 27. According to Kommersant, the details of this support were outlined during a visit to Damascus by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Pro-Iranian military groups active in neighboring Iraq have already deployed fighters to the conflict zone. Meanwhile, Israel is concerned that the Axis of Resistance, or an Iranian-led military coalition, will exploit the crisis in Syria as a pretext to increase its presence near the northern border of the Jewish state.

On Monday, the Syrian leader held a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian. During the call, Bashar Assad expressed his confidence that "the intensification of terrorist activity reflects the underlying goal to divide the region, fragment its countries, and once again reshape the maps," the Syrian presidential office reported.

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said that Iran may also support Syria by both sending more weapons and deploying troops there. "Iran may send more advisers or volunteer units controlled by it to Syria, or else it could deploy allied Shia troops from neighboring Iraq," the expert said.

However, the risks of escalating the conflict with Israel and the United States amid the war in the Gaza Strip remain a problem here, he added. "In the past year, the Israeli Air Force has been attacking various facilities affiliated with Iran-backed militias in Syria more frequently and with more intensity," Lyamin noted. According to him, relations with US troops in the region have also been tense, given repeated exchanges of strikes between US and pro-Iranian forces. All this could hamper the deployment of reinforcements and weapons to Syria, he suggested. A fleet of Iranian large surveillance and strike drones could very much help Syria, but those would be very vulnerable to attacks from Israel at Syrian airfields, he warned.

 

Vedomosti: Analysts forecast growth in Russia's oil production by 2025

In 2025, Russian oil output will grow by 1% from 2024, reaching 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd), excluding gas condensate, or 10.3 million bpd, including gas condensate, a report prepared by VTB for the 15th Russia Calling! investment forum, set to be held in Moscow on December 4-5, shows.

According to the bank’s forecasts, from 2025 to 2030, the average Brent price will hover between $70 and $80 per barrel. Tightening US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which may reduce global oil supply by 1 million bpd, could push oil prices higher.

Meanwhile, oil production in Russia has been falling for the past two years. Last year, it amounted to 530.6 million metric tons (including gas condensate), according to data from the Energy Ministry, dropping by 1% from the previous year. The ministry’s forecast for 2025-2027 projects a 0.5% decrease in oil output next year.

Stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, told Vedomosti that the policy pursued by OPEC+ and global oil demand next year will mostly depend on how the Chinese economy fares. While China introduced a large package of measures to stimulate the economy this year, it is still unclear whether they will be effective, she said. If they are, oil demand will certainly grow, she continued, which would allow OPEC+ countries to return some of the volumes that had to be cut to the market.

Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, agrees with VTB that oil production will grow in Russia in 2025. The draft energy strategy, too, forecasts an increase in annual oil output to 540 million metric tons by 2030, he recalled.

Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Oil Market, expects Russian oil production to reach as much as 9.45 million bpd, excluding gas condensate, in 2025. The oil output figures with gas condensate may amount to 10.8 million bpd by the end of the year, the expert estimates.

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