MOSCOW, November 29. /TASS/. CSTO members discuss Russian armaments and US policy at the Astana summit; Moscow and Washington continue talks on prisoner exchanges; and Syrian rebels launch a massive offensive, gaining ground in Aleppo and Idlib. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: CSTO partners discuss Russian weapons, US policy at Astana summit

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who will preside the CSTO's supreme body, the Collective Security Council, in 2024, welcomed the leaders of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. Armenia, which has effectively suspended its participation in the organization, was again not represented at the CSTO summit in Astana, but the organizers still displayed its flag. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine was the main topic of discussion.

In the open part of the closed meeting of the heads of state and government, the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin caused a significant resonance. According to him, the Defense Ministry and the General Staff are selecting targets on the territory of Ukraine for the recently tested Oreshnik system, and these could include "decision-making centers" in Kiev. If several missiles are used, the power of the strike would be comparable to the use of nuclear weapons, Putin stressed, adding, however, that Oreshnik does not have a nuclear payload.

The implementation of Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine within the framework of the CSTO is a key strategic matter, Director of the Kazakh analytical research center Eurasian Monitoring Alibek Tazhibayev told Vedomosti. The document, adopted on November 19, 2024, enshrines Russia's right to use nuclear weapons in response to aggression against it or its allies, including CSTO member states. This emphasizes the importance of collective defense in the organization, the expert noted.

The provisions of the updated version of the nuclear doctrine in relation to Russia's allies, including the CSTO allies, generally repeat the content of the corresponding provisions of the 2020 document, researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Stefanovich argues. The exception is Belarus, which is related to the specifics of the functioning of the single security contour of the union state and the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on its territory.

Putin is sending an important political signal to the collective West with his statements about Oreshnik, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government Denis Denisov told the newspaper. This signal is a reaction to the continued support for Ukraine. According to Denisov, it is extremely important for Russia that the West recognizes the balance of power in the current conflict and Moscow's capabilities.

The expert noted that the new Trump administration will make significant efforts to freeze the conflict. At the same time, it is not yet possible to expect that the United States will cease to be Russia's adversary, since there are a number of regulatory documents in the US that predetermine its confrontation with Russia. For the time being, these documents clearly shape the image of Russia as an enemy, so Moscow's reaction to them is natural, the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Russia, US continue talks on prisoner exchange

Moscow and Washington are in contact regarding the issue of prisoners, the US Embassy in Russia told Izvestia. Russian diplomatic circles have also previously stated that the matter of prisoner exchange remains on the agenda of relations between the two countries. At the same time, the media is now actively discussing the possibility of another large-scale operation in February 2025, after the inauguration of Donald Trump. The largest such exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War took place on August 1.

"Washington's representatives interact with their Russian counterparts on many consular issues, including matters related to citizens in custody," the US Embassy in Moscow told the newspaper.

At the same time, the embassy did not confirm a possible exchange between the two countries. "Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, we cannot comment or speculate on the subject of potential negotiations," the embassy said.

Such actions contribute to a certain reduction of tensions in relations between the two countries. Despite the significant escalation between Russia and the United States, especially against the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict, these exchanges at least indicate that contacts between the countries are maintained at the highest level. However, they cannot be clearly considered indicators of the normalization of bilateral relations, the newspaper writes.

"We need more fundamental reasons to normalize relations, a global negotiation process. If we want to talk about breakthroughs in Russian-US relations, we need to address more comprehensive issues, or at least some regional ones. It is important to focus on issues of strategic and economic stability," leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Konstantin Blokhin, told Izvestia.

In fact, previous prisoner exchanges took place under the Biden administration and did not contribute to normalizing relations - such exchanges do not depend much on who is in power in Washington, according to the newspaper.

"Regardless of who is in the White House, this is a very comprehensive, planned, and systematic process. There are many nuances - from the mass preparation of documents to the selection of candidates for the exchange. I do not think that Donald Trump will come to power and make a decision on the exchange overnight," Konstantin Blokhin added.

 

Kommersant: Israeli strikes awaken Syrian militants

Stabilization in Lebanon has had significant repercussions in neighboring Syria - groups controlling the largest rebel enclave in Syria's Idlib province have initiated a major offensive. The area had remained calm for four years, due to agreements between Russia and Turkey, the primary supporters of the local armed groups. However, according to experts interviewed by Kommersant, the militants have now decided to capitalize on the vulnerability of Lebanese Hezbollah, which has supported Damascus on the battlefield for many years. Regular Israeli airstrikes have weakened Hezbollah's positions, not only in Lebanon but also in Syria.

Among the Islamists' targets were settlements in Syria's Aleppo province. Command of the operation was assumed by the joint headquarters of the groups controlling the neighboring province of Idlib, the country’s largest center of resistance to the central government. The radical group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, designated and banned as a terrorist group in Russia), stated that the goal of the militants' "pre-emptive strike" was to undermine the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and "remove the threat posed by Iranian militias."

By November 28, according to Turkey's Anadolu news agency, the militants had successfully driven SAA units out of 32 settlements, occupying a total area of 245 square kilometers.

Although a ceasefire is currently in effect between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel is not bound by any restrictions "in operational actions against terrorism," including in Syria, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson Anna Ukolova told Kommersant.

"The main objective of our airstrikes on Syrian territory was to prevent the smuggling of Iranian weapons into Lebanon. We will respond to any attempt to replenish Hezbollah's arms supplies. Our mission is to protect the residents of Israel and create conditions for the safe return of the northern residents to their homes," Ukolova emphasized.

Anton Mardasov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Kommersant that the Idlib groups had been preparing for the operation for a long time. "There are several key factors driving this operation. The first is internal - HTS is facing protests against its monopoly on power in Idlib," the expert noted.

The second factor is Turkey. "Damascus again failed to agree to peace agreements with Ankara, and Ankara was quite displeased," Mardasov explained. Another factor, according to the expert, is Hezbollah’s stance on the ceasefire in Lebanon, as several settlements in Aleppo that were taken by the opposition had previously been controlled by Hezbollah.

Additionally, Mardasov pointed out that the commanders of the groups specifically waited until the information noise surrounding Lebanon subsided, ensuring maximum public attention for their actions.

 

Izvestia: Tbilisi pauses EU integration talks until 2028 as EU moves to unfreeze process

Brussels is ready to reopen the process of Georgia's EU accession, the European Commission told Izvestia. However, in order to do so, the Union demands that the country's government adjust its political course, "which contradicts the principles and conditions of EU membership." The primary issues are the law on foreign agents and the ban on LGBT propaganda (an extremist movement banned in Russia). But while the EU is insisting on conditions, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that his country will not engage in negotiations for EU membership until 2028. Experts dismiss the possibility of Georgia making concessions and point out the "suicidal" nature of Brussels' demands for Tbilisi.

The process of negotiations on Georgia's EU integration could be resumed under certain conditions. "The EU is ready to revive the process of Georgia's accession as soon as the government reverses its course of retreat from democracy and abandons actions that contradict the principles and conditions of EU membership," Lead Spokesperson for EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Peter Stano, told Izvestia.

At the same time, Brussels believes that the Georgian authorities should first conduct an "independent investigation" into the violations that occurred during the October 26 elections.

Tbilisi, however, decided to put the issue of the country's membership in the European Union on hold - Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze directly accused Brussels of blackmail and announced the government's decision not to pursue negotiations with the EU until the end of 2028.

Kobakhidze's announcement appears quite logical given Brussels' statements, especially considering the unpredictability of European officials' reactions to the results of the upcoming presidential elections on December 14 and the possible victory of the ruling party's candidate, Mikhail Kavelashvili, Head of the Sector for the Caucasus at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Vadim Mukhanov, told Izvestia.

"The Georgian authorities have decided to deliberately disengage from the process of European integration to demonstrate to the population that internal stability remains their priority," the expert said.

Political scientist Andrey Areshev told the newspaper he believes that the EC's demands are another attempt to pressure Georgia for its refusal to follow the EU's anti-Russian policy. "This pressure has been ongoing for almost three years, and today the parties are on opposite sides," he noted.

 

Vedomosti: Russia’s major steelmakers reduce steel output in January-October

Major Russian steel companies MMK, Industrial Metallurgical Holding, and Severstal saw the biggest reductions in steel production in January-October 2024 - by 12%, 18%, and 8% year-on-year, respectively, according to data from the information and analytical company Chermet Corporation. The output volumes of these companies for the reporting period reached 9.4 mln tons, 3.2 mln tons, and 8.5 mln tons, respectively. At the same time, NLMK Group, the country's largest steel producer, reduced output by 4.7% to 11.3 mln tons in 10 months.

In general, steel production in Russia fell by 7% in January-October compared year-on-year to 59.1 mln tons and by 15% in October to 5.56 mln tons, Chermet reported.

The Russian steel industry continues to overcome the consequences of Western sanctions imposed in 2022 after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine - which effectively closed the EU market for supplies of key products. At the same time, steel production is falling globally. According to the World Steel Association (WSA), the global market is also showing a negative trend, falling in January - October by 1.6% year-on-year to 1.55 bln tons of steel.

Demand in the construction sector, a key driver of the steel market, is declining due to high interest rates, which negatively impact both developers and the mortgage market, Director of Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI) agency Ilya Kolomeets told Vedomosti. Dmitry Puchkarev, expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, added that the availability of mortgages is also decreasing due to the end of the preferential program from the second half of 2024.

The negative dynamics of demand for metal products are also evident in the oil and gas sector, Kolomeets noted. The growth of steel consumption in the machine-building industry has not been sufficient to compensate for the decline in demand in other sectors, the analyst added. The market is also under pressure from the high key interest rate - the negative impact of this factor increased in the second half of the year, he noted.

The largest steel producers are more susceptible to the influence of negative factors because they are "less flexible," which is reflected more clearly in their figures, Kolomeets said.

In the coming months, the negative trend in metallurgy will continue, the expert believes. Puchkarev recalled the risks of a new increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia in December - from the current 21% to 23%.

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