MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. Vladimir Putin sums up Russia’s economic and political achievements for the year in his combined Direct Line Q&A session and year-end press conference; Ukraine’s chances of joining the EU any time soon still appear dim; and Armenia and Azerbaijan may be close to signing a peace treaty by early next year. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Putin talks sovereignty, ties with West, special op, Russian economy in 4-hour Q&A

A country like Russia cannot exist without sovereignty and peace will come when Russia meets all of its objectives for the special military operation in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday during his combined Direct Line Q&A session and year-end press conference. Russia’s biggest political event of the year lasted 4 hours and 4 minutes, during which the president answered 67 questions not only about Russia's development and its new regions, but also concerning the main political tracks in a multipolar world.

The president emphasized that the Russian economy has a large margin of safety, which is ensured by several factors, Izvestia writes. "This includes the high level of consolidation in Russian society. The second is the stability of the country’s financial and economic system," Putin said, noting that the third component is enhancing the capabilities of the armed forces and security agencies.

Specific indicators confirm the stability of the Russian economy, he added, specifically a year-end 2023 GDP growth level forecasted at 3.5%, which indicates that Russia has rebounded from last year's drop, when the country's economy shrank by 2.1%. Furthermore, the president stated that inflation may reach 7.5%, or slightly higher at 8%, by the end of 2023.

"This is a good figure," Pavel Danilin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and director of the Center for Political Analysis, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta in commenting on Putin's statement about GDP.

Danilin believes that the current growth in GDP is mostly driven by the rise in domestic production, particularly in manufacturing sectors serving the military-industrial complex, energy resource extraction sectors, and agriculture. "I believe they will be the driving force behind economic growth next year. If the trend continues, we will see roughly the same GDP growth, as long as financial stability is maintained," he said. According to the expert, Russia’s economy could see GDP growth of 3.5-3.6%. And, it is precisely the defense sector and extractive industries that will be the main growth drivers.

"In theory, we can achieve the same 3.5% figure in 2024," Danilin said, although the expert thinks it would be tough to go higher.

When asked about the special military operation, the president compared the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to a civil war. "The unrestrained striving to creep right up to our borders, while taking hold of Ukraine to bring it into NATO, all of this led to this tragedy," he said.

Foreign journalists were equally interested in the prospects for Russian-European relations. A French journalist, in particular, inquired about Putin’s contacts with French President Emmanuel Macron. Russia, Putin responded, is willing to continue interacting with Paris provided that the French side shows a similar interest.

Putin, on the other hand, described Russia’s cooperation with China as unparalleled, saying he anticipates that Russia's trade turnover with China will increase by 30% this year to $220-230 bln.

 

Izvestia: Ukraine’s near-term EU membership prospects to remain dim

The start of European Union accession negotiations with Ukraine does not mean that Kiev will become a member of the EU in the next few years, French member of the European Parliament (MEP) Thierry Mariani told Izvestia. On December 14, EU leaders voted to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on membership in the bloc, as well as to offer Georgia candidate status for membership. Previously, Hungary was the main opponent of Kiev's potential EU accession, supported by Slovakia and Austria. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Hungary would abstain from the vote on starting talks with Ukraine, and in the event Budapest did not wield its veto power to block Kiev’s chances. In light of this, analysts argue that the European Council's decision is perfectly legal, but largely illegitimate from a political point of view, writes Izvestia.

The legitimacy of the European Council's resolution on the Ukrainian issue could be questioned, Karine Bechet-Golovko, visiting professor of public law at Moscow State University, told the newspaper, noting that it could be deemed entirely legal from a strictly procedural point of view, yet still be considered politically illegitimate.

The exact timing of the negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova is unknown, but, according to Politico, the talks could start in March 2024.

German MEP Gunnar Beck of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party believes that most EU countries will continue to support Ukraine's European integration as long as Berlin is willing to pay for it. He told Izvestia that many unofficially agree that Ukraine will not be able to win the conflict, and supporting Kiev will only prolong it. However, given European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Germany's almost unconditional support for Ukraine, the vast majority of EU member states will not oppose it, he added.

Hungary was not the only country to oppose the start of talks with Ukraine. Slovakia also criticized Kiev before the conference. Mariani told Izvestia that fewer and fewer people in the West, especially in the European Union, believe in Ukraine's victory. That said, however, the French MEP believes that until the leadership of the EU changes, no significant changes in Brussels' policy toward Russia can be expected. So, the start of EU negotiations with Ukraine does not necessarily imply that Kiev will become a member of the EU in the near future.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Armenia, Azerbaijan come closer to inking peace pact early next year

Armenia and Azerbaijan, thanks in part to the mediation of Western countries, have been able to make significant progress in their relations. The two countries exchanged prisoners of war, with Yerevan releasing two Azerbaijanis and Baku releasing 32 Armenians. As a result, the parties fully complied with the agreements they signed on December 7, while declaring that they saw a historic opportunity to make peace based on mutual respect for each other's sovereignty. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is conceivable in the near future. Armenia does not even rule out the possibility of signing a treaty before the end of 2023, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

At the same time, experts interviewed by the newspaper believe that the usefulness of the Moscow platform for settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has lost much of its relevance since 2020. "First of all, Russia's influence in Armenia has significantly diminished. Yerevan has virtually suspended its participation in the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization - TASS), questioned the effectiveness of peacekeepers in Karabakh, and increased cooperation with Western partners," said Vladimir Evseev, head of the SCO Department of Eurasian Integration and Development at the Institute of the CIS Countries, adding that relations with Azerbaijan are also complicated.

"The main problem is not the format, but the fact that it is still impossible to bring the positions of the parties closer together," Caucasus Institute head Alexander Iskandaryan told the newspaper. According to the expert, the exchange of prisoners is the first mutual step taken by Armenia and Azerbaijan toward each other in a long time.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine, NATO may challenge Russia in Arctic region

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky's unexpected visit to Oslo on December 13 signals more than just attempts to gain military support from Norway and its Nordic neighbors. The Ukrainian president seems to be trying to join NATO projects in the Arctic region as a means of challenging Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Officially, the summit of Northern European countries, which Zelensky attended, focused on issues of cooperation in the field of defense and security, while the US spoke about using the military infrastructures of Finland and Sweden in the interests of the Pentagon.

During talks with Zelensky, five Northern European countries - Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland - said that they would support Kiev as long as necessary.

According to experts and the media, the Nordic countries expect Ukraine to participate in NATO's Arctic border reinforcement efforts. "NATO is dragging Ukraine into a hybrid war," Colonel (Ret.) Vladimir Popov, a military expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "There have been accusations that Ukrainian saboteurs were involved in the attacks on the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines <...> With the help of the US and NATO, they may be able to do something similar to the Northern Sea Route," he added.

According to military expert Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yuri Netkachev, NATO is ready to put pressure on Russia in the Arctic zone. And the next military exercise of the Nordic Response Alliance, scheduled for early 2024, will be focused precisely on this mission, he told the newspaper.

 

Kommersant: Russia increases fuel deliveries to Turkey, Brazil

Russian oil companies dramatically increased maritime shipments of diesel fuel in the first two weeks of December, bringing them back to 1 mln barrels per day (bpd), Kommersant writes. This was made possible by the almost complete easing of export restrictions imposed at the end of September. Turkey, the largest consumer of Russian diesel and the country most affected by the ban, is still working to restore imports to previous levels. Brazil ranks second in terms of volume, having increased imports from Russia for the third month in a row.

The Russian government imposed an export ban on gasoline and diesel fuel on September 21 due to a significant increase in fuel prices. As a result, diesel tanker supplies fell to 740,000 bpd in September. Russia eased restrictions on gasoline exports in the first half of November and on summer diesel exports at the end of the month.

Turkey, which was once the largest importer of Russian diesel fuel and was hit hard by the export restriction, increased supplies of Russian diesel fuel to 319,000 bpd in December. Turkey's purchases of Russian diesel fuel fell to 212,000 bpd in October, the lowest level this year.

Brazil, the second largest importer, increased purchases for the third consecutive month to nearly 274,000 bpd in December and is on track to set another record by the end of the month. Algeria's imports of Russian diesel rose to 74,000 bpd from just over 4,000 bpd previously.

According to Vickor Katona of Kpler, the September-October embargo on diesel fuel exports had a significant impact on Turkey, but flows are returning to previous levels. According to his predictions, the export dynamics will continue to be around 1 mln bpd, but will fall short of this year's March record (1.26 mln bpd) due to a rapid drop in oil refining rates in the first half of December. The expert noted the importance of Russia's adherence to the OPEC+ agreements, which provide for the restriction of oil and oil product supplies abroad.

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