MOSCOW, November 2. /TASS/. The European Union is considering its 12th package of sanctions against Russia; the Israel-Hamas conflict may spread to other corners of the Middle East; and US President Joe Biden is likely to veto the Republicans’ Israeli aid bill if it fails to include funds for Ukraine. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU eyes yet more anti-Russian sanctions even as policy impairs unity

The European Union is on the verge of rolling out its 12th package of sanctions against Russia. The new restrictions could cover diamonds, aluminum and a new list of dual-use goods. According to media reports, the text of the latest EU sanctions package could be sent to member states next week. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, however, that unanimity is a rare commodity among EU member states as each new set of sanctions only seems to widen the rifts among them.

Exports of welding machines, chemicals, defense technologies and software licenses to Russia may be restricted. Metals and aluminum products may be excluded from the list of Russian imports. Restrictions are also being considered that would enable monitoring of Moscow’s compliance with the $60 per barrel oil price cap. The package is also expected to focus on additional restrictions on supplies of dual-use goods.

According to Nadezhda Arbatova, head of European Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), the EU’s policy of anti-Russian sanctions is now driven solely by inertia and has taken on a life of its own that is totally divorced from reality. Having set the sanctions war in motion, the European Union is already incapable of bringing it to an end, no matter what concrete results it may or may not produce. "The current EU sanctions are just a box to tick off on Brussels’ to-do list, without any hope of bringing about any immediate changes," she told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

The expert stressed that each new sanctions package only serves to widen the divide within the European Union itself, pitting the interests of individual member states against each other. "There may be varying assessments of how sanctions have impacted the lives of European citizens, but it is obvious that they are undermining the unity of the European Union [as a whole], which is necessary for the development of integration projects. The sanctions policy essentially cannot replace a strategy that should be based on a sober cost-benefit analysis of each [contemplated] action," the expert added.

 

Izvestia: Israel-Hamas conflict may spread to other corners of Middle East

Israel may carry out retaliatory strikes on strategic areas in Yemen from which fighters of the Houthi movement (officially known as Ansar Allah, or Supporters of God) launch missiles at the Jewish state, experts believe. Saudi Arabia, which has previously intercepted missiles fired by Ansar Allah, a pro-Iranian Yemeni organization, is also expected to respond with military action. However, many believe that Riyadh will not take dramatic measures in the current situation, as fighting the Houthis could be interpreted as lending support to Israel, Izvestia writes.

Experts believe that further deterioration of the situation will have a greater impact on energy markets and rising stock prices. They are confident that if the situation escalates further, the Israeli navy will respond immediately, Izvestia writes. According to experts, the Israelis may begin to hit vital Houthi positions.

"These will be demonstration strikes to show strength and convince the Houthis that military action against Israel must be avoided," expert Roland Bijamov told Izvestia.

Experts also do not rule out that the US, which is actively engaged in the Persian Gulf, could strike against the Houthis. At the same time, the activities of the Houthis against Israel may provoke a response from countries other than the Jewish state and the United States. There is a possibility that hostilities may resume on the Arabian Peninsula between the Houthis of Ansar Allah and Yemeni government forces supported by Saudi Arabia.

"We are not yet at the point of violating the ceasefire between the parties. Of course, missiles flying over the territory of Saudi Arabia are a threat to the country’s national security and will be intercepted by air defense systems. On the other hand, I don’t believe that Saudi Arabia would take any additional specific steps or launch any operation in response to the launch of missiles against Israel," Bijamov told the newspaper.

 

Izvestia: Macron’s Central Asia tour driven by Paris’ search for new energy partners

French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Kazakhstan on a visit to discuss increased cooperation with the Central Asian country in the energy industry, especially in the nuclear power sector. Experts warn that the move could be fraught with difficulties, as Astana works closely with Russia’s state-owned nuclear power corporation Rosatom and the supply of uranium from Kazakhstan to France remains problematic, Izvestia writes. Macron will continue his Central Asian tour with a stop in Uzbekistan on November 2.

European diplomacy in general has stepped up attempts to build ties with Central Asian countries since the EU imposed sanctions on Russia, thus effectively cutting Europe off from Russian energy supplies. At the same time, Central Asia is rich in natural resources, to which the EU is currently trying to gain access. Thus, given Paris’ need for new sources of uranium after the coup in Niger, it is not surprising that Macron made Astana the first stop on his itinerary, as Kazakhstan ranks second in the world in terms of uranium reserves after Australia, Izvestia writes.

At the same time, even if a deal to increase uranium supplies from Kazakhstan is reached, France would still face some challenges, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund, told the newspaper. "Kazakhstan is closely connected with Rosatom; the Russian company is involved in uranium mining on its territory," he said.

According to the expert, the European Union cannot abandon Russian nuclear power, which is why it is reluctant to include this sector in the sanctions lists.

"There is certainly an aspect of geopolitical rivalry [to Macron’s visit]. But, in terms of economic presence and, more importantly, in terms of security and internal political processes, the European Union remains a second- or even third-tier actor in Central Asia. The EU lags behind Russia, China, the United States, and even Turkey," Andrey Grozin, head of the Central Asia and Kazakhstan section at the Institute of CIS Countries, told Izvestia.

 

Vedomosti: Biden seen vetoing GOP’s standalone Israel aid bill without Ukraine funding

US President Joe Biden has threatened to veto the Republicans’ Israeli aid bill if it is passed in its current form. Republicans in the House of Representatives (lower chamber of Congress) have crafted legislation that would aid Israel only without allocating any additional funds for Ukraine, while paying for the foreign aid appropriation by cutting $14.3 bln from the budget of the US Internal Revenue Service, an economy measure that the Democrats would find hard to swallow. The White House stated that it would continue to work with members of Congress to bring a combined aid package to a vote, which would include military assistance for Israel and Ukraine, as well as Taiwan, Vedomosti writes.

Under US law, the president has the authority to veto legislation that has been approved by both houses of Congress. However, the Congress has the authority to override a veto if it can muster two-thirds of the votes in both the Senate and the House, which the Republicans do not have.

According to Alexey Davydov, senior researcher at the Center for North American Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, the White House realizes that the Republicans are exploiting the issue of military assistance to Israel, which is why they are issuing warnings about a possible presidential veto. According to the expert, Biden’s predicament is aggravated by the fact that Israel carries significant weight in US foreign and domestic policy. According to Davydov, the lack of help for Ukraine and Taiwan would make it more difficult for Biden to justify obstructing the Republican initiative on Israel.

At the same time, the expert noted that the attitudes of Democrats and Republicans will gradually change as they prepare to cut a political deal.

 

Vedomosti: Gazprom looking to replace lost EU export volumes with Central Asian market

Gazprom intends to conclude long-term gas supply and transit contracts with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 2024, CEO Alexey Miller said. He noted that the parties are now discussing plans to further expand Russian gas supplies through the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline system. Experts told Vedomosti that this is how the gas giant plans to make up for the loss of the European market due to sanctions.

Sergey Kondratyev, deputy chairman of the Economics Department at the Institute of Energy and Finance, pointed out that due to the loss of the European market, Gazprom has huge free volumes of gas amounting to over 150 bcm per year. At the same time, according to his estimates, there is a fuel shortfall of 1-1.5 bcm per year in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which could more than double to 7-10 bcm in Uzbekistan and 5-8 bcm in Kazakhstan.

Evgenia Popova, a consultant at Implementa, believes that, in the long run, Gazprom will be able to raise gas supplies to Central Asia to 10-15 bcm, as well as build gas transit facilities to China through these countries’ territories. Kondratyev forecasts that Central Asian countries’ potential need for gas imports will reach 17-20 bcm per year by 2030. However, he warns that Gazprom will have to compete with Turkmenistan for this market.

According to Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, all three countries - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan - are in the midst of a catastrophic energy crisis caused by the exhaustion of the power generation facilities built during the Soviet era. As a result, the expert believes that all of them are interested in having a reliable long-term gas provider.

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