MOSCOW, October 16. /TASS/. Israel is slow-walking the launch of its ground offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip for a range of reasons, while concern grows about civilian casualties; Beijing is urging Washington to rein in Israel; and Russian gas is being redirected from the Baltic to southern Europe. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Israel slow-walking ground assault on Hamas to delay 'war of all against all'

The most obvious reason why Israel is delaying the launch of its ground military operation in the Gaza Strip is the incomplete evacuation of civilians from the area targeted for the most active combat. Among other reasons, experts point to the Israelis’ unpreparedness for the type of long, brutal, exhausting war that the operation in the enclave could morph into. Meanwhile, US Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh writes that Israel may have even harsher actions in the works.

"The reports I have seen concern the need to evacuate foreign nationals, both from Israel and the Palestinian territories and from Lebanon, in order to minimize losses in the event of a ground military operation and the potential involvement of other belligerents in the conflict, above all, Hezbollah [the Lebanon-based radical Shiite movement]," Igor Polyachenko, head of the Office of International Cooperation at the State University of Management, told Izvestia. "Another issue is that any military operation needs time for preparations, especially given the number of Israeli citizens being mobilized, which surpasses the number of active duty servicemen by several-fold. Hamas’ strategic successes displayed during the attack demonstrated this organization’s strong sides and the need to factor these in when planning the ground operation," he added.

"The fact that Israel understands that it has a rather harsh, wearisome and bloody guerilla war in an urban setting ahead of it, given that practically the entire Gaza Strip is penetrated by tunnels, compels it to prepare even more thoroughly for the upcoming operation," Sergey Demidenko, dean of the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), said in a conversation with Izvestia.

"The Gaza Strip has an enormous number of various small Islamist groups that are only nominally subordinate to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. Ultimately, Israel is facing a Hobbesian war of ‘all against all’ (after 17th-century English philosopher Thomas Hobbes - TASS), meaning that the entire Gaza Strip will resist [the Israelis]," Demidenko thinks.

The combination of these factors indicates that the ground military operation will involve fatalities among civilians under any scenario. Apparently, the need to attempt to minimize the potential losses is compelling Israel to slow-walk the launch of its full-scale offensive.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China urging US to rein in Israel in showdown with Hamas

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a conversation with his Saudi Arabian colleague said that Israel had overstepped the bounds of self-defense. According to him, China condemns any acts that harm civilians. Israel should heed the call of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and refrain from punishing the population of the Gaza Strip. Beijing made its stance known to representatives from the Arab League, as well as EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. China and the US have completely diverged in their assessments of the crisis. China has not condemned Hamas and said that a State of Palestine should be created, while Blinken asked Beijing to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from attacking Israel.

If the conflict expands, it may impact oil deliveries to China because half of all of China’s oil imports originate in the Persian Gulf. China has also begun to purchase more oil from Iran, which has been supporting Hamas for some time. Chinese President Xi Jinping also expressed concern over the matter, stating that energy supplies in a safe atmosphere are critically important for the country’s development and the population’s well-being.

In any case, China will not be able to significantly reduce its dependency on oil imports, said Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University. Hence it was entirely natural that, in his phone call with Blinken, Wang urged his American counterpart to rein in Tel Aviv and prevent other countries in the region from being pulled into the war.

In a conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexander Lukin, research director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, noted: "China has always supported the Palestinians. It positions itself as a leader of the Global South and views Israel as the West’s ally. This does not mean that China supports Hamas. It is calling for the swiftest ceasefire, for launching talks. This is [Beijing’s] official stance; it is close to that of Russia. China traditionally adheres to such a policy when combat erupts. This is the way it was during the war in Afghanistan; this is how it is with regard to Ukraine. Things should be resolved peacefully. This is the fundamental essence of Beijing’s policy course."

 

Kommersant: Gazprom redirecting Baltic gas to southern Europe

Gazprom’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant built from scratch, Portovaya LNG on the Baltic Sea, had to fundamentally reconsider its marketing strategy during its first year of operation. Although initially it had been oriented toward serving markets in northwestern Europe, the situation in Ukraine forced it to redirect its supplies to Turkey and Greece. The plant has no long-term contracts and delivers shipments only to the spot market. Additionally, Gazprom has begun testing supplies to China with a second load now on its way to Asia, albeit not via the Northern Sea Route but through the Suez Canal. According to analysts, Gazprom is unlikely to entrench itself in the Greek market due to the EU’s adverse stance on Russian gas, while the economics of deliveries to China is not yet optimal due to the long-distance haul.

In the long-term perspective, Gazprom will hardly manage to ensconce itself in the Greek market because the EU is moving toward banning Russian LNG supplies, at least, on a spot basis, Viktor Katona at commodities data and analytics firm Kpler, said. "This is why, apparently, the option with China is being worked on, which is right now far from being optimal: tankers are losing too much time returning empty from there," he explained.

According to independent expert Alexander Sobko, spot LNG prices right now are close not only within the same region but overall in Eurasia. "The deliveries precisely to Turkey and Greece, albeit resulting in longer transit compared to northwestern European countries, are most likely related to political aspects," he clarified.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US skittish on forecasting Azerbaijani attack on Armenia

Since the second Karabakh war, many in Armenia have been constantly talking about Azerbaijan’s purported plans to carve out by military means what is known as the Zangezur Corridor to the landlocked Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. Thus, when the Washington-based publication Politico reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expects an Azerbaijani invasion soon, this was not a sensation as the Armenians have been bracing for it for three years already. That said, only on its second try did Washington manage to refute the published report, but its aftertaste nevertheless remained.

On October 15, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev officially hoisted the Azerbaijani flag above Khankendi (Stepanakert, the former capital of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic) and other towns, including near the Sarsang Reservoir.

Armenian political scientist Arshaluis Mgdesyan also thinks that a potential military clash between the neighboring South Caucasus countries is not a fabrication by journalists, but rather a real threat. "The exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh does not necessarily mean that the conflict between Baku and Yerevan is over. There are other problematic issues, particularly those related to the unblocking of transport arteries. That said, Azerbaijan is acting in sync with Turkey. For instance, they take turns raising the subject of the Zangezur Corridor," the expert noted.

In turn, Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade thinks that Armenian concerns reflect their incorrect understanding of the Karabakh conflict. "When Azerbaijan was liberating Karabakh, it was acting within its own territory. Nobody is going to attack somebody else’s land. Among other things, this was stated the other day by Elchin Amirbayov, Azerbaijani presidential representative for special assignments. That said, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan noted that in the absence of the Zangezur Corridor, the road will be paved through Iran, that is, neither Ankara nor Baku are planning a military operation in Armenia," the expert asserted.

Alexander Krylov, chief research fellow of the Caucasus Section of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAN), cautions that a reconciliation between the sides is not the only possible scenario. "The situation in the region is highly volatile. Three years have passed since the 44-day-war but the transport arteries have not yet been unblocked. Had everything gone in accordance with the 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement, everything would have already been coordinated," he thinks. "Yet the West is doing everything to prevent Russia from being the security guarantor in the region, so the issues remain unresolved. That said, the West itself is not ensuring anything either. The region may turn into a part of the greater Middle East, with its very existence under threat as a result," the expert concluded.

 

Kommersant: Increasingly more Russian brands emerging in Dubai

Russian retailers and restaurateurs, having lost access to many countries and a substantial number of paying customers following the launch of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, are more actively cultivating the United Arab Emirates (UAE) market. Over nearly the past two years, the number of Russian brand names in Dubai has grown almost 4.5-fold, to 31, and may soon reach 55. In entering the Emirati market, however, Russian companies are encountering difficulties with financial inspections and leases on locations, prices for which are almost triple those in Moscow. However, the possibility of earning high margins is making up for these initial outlays.

"Almost every week at least one Russian chain opens its locations in this emirate," says Marina Shalayeva, managing director of Parus Real Estate. Andrey Migunov, a co-founder of Poison Drop, an online jewelry retailer, explained that the military operation in Ukraine sped up his company’s appearance in the UAE. "After February 2022, we accelerated our search for a location for our headquarters and a warehouse abroad," he said.

That said, Alexey Vanchugov, managing partner at Vanchugov and Partners, thinks that some Russian retailers are not seeking to make their stores in Dubai profitable. "Entering the UAE helps them raise the brand’s value in the domestic market and position their business as an international one," he explained.

However, Dmitry Tomilin, director general of consultancy Eterna, is confident that Russian companies offering good standardized products may be in demand in Dubai.

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