MOSCOW, September 4. /TASS/. Russian, Turkish presidents to meet in Sochi for discussion of options for revitalizing the Black Sea grain deal; the Vatican is continuing efforts to promote a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine conflict; and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sees re-election prospects dim as support plummets. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Kommersant: Russia, Turkey set to discuss grain deal redux options at presidential meeting

The leaders of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will meet for the first time this year on September 4. Despite the Turkish president's repeated offers to host his Russian counterpart on Turkish soil, the talks will take place in Sochi. The agenda of the talks, regardless of how weighty the various issues on it may be, is attracting attention primarily due to speculation over options for resurrecting the new-defunct Black Sea Grain Initiative, which provided for safe passage of Ukrainian grain shipments as well as the unblocking of Russian agricultural exports. However, there is no guarantee that it will be reactivated. Despite Ankara's efforts over the past month-and-a-half to bring Russia back into the deal, the parties seem to be sticking to their guns for now, writes Kommersant.

Erdogan immediately announced that he would meet with Putin to discuss the revival of the Istanbul agreements underlying the grain deal, which were reached in July 2022 and formed the basis of the grain deal until Russia opted out by refusing to extend the deal after July 17 until the Russia-related provisions were honored. However, it seems that any new proposals from Ankara are unlikely to be considered as alternatives at this point. Rather, the parties are expected to discuss new opportunities that could be used to persuade Moscow to reconsider the Black Sea project. Russian representatives, for their part, have consistently emphasized their willingness to return to the grain deal as envisioned by the Istanbul agreements as soon as all of Moscow's conditions are met.

In this sense, Erdogan, who hopes to reassert himself as the most successful mediator between Russia and Ukraine, is likely to go to Sochi with something more concrete than a request to return to the grain deal and a vow to implement all provisions of the Istanbul agreements, Kommersant writes. The day before, Turkish media reported that the UN, in cooperation with Ankara, had prepared a new package of proposals for Moscow. According to press reports, they may include reconnecting the European subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT system, as well as unfreezing the assets of Russian companies involved in fertilizer production in Europe.

 

Izvestia: Vatican pushes pontifical peace plan for Ukraine conflict despite Kiev’s outrage

Pope Francis’ recent video speech to a meeting of Russian Catholic youth sparked outrage in Ukraine. The pontiff was chastised by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and Office of the President for urging Russians not to discard the cultural heritage of the "great and enlightened" Russian Empire. The Holy See, for its part, is playing its own hand in the Ukraine crisis, in which Kiev’s criticism and discontent is a secondary concern, Izvestia writes.

The Vatican is actively participating in efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict and is one of the few Western voices advocating for a quick end to the armed phase of the conflict, the newspaper writes, recalling that a group led by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky paid a largely unsuccessful visit to Vatican City in May. At the same time, papal representative Cardinal Matteo Zuppi held talks in Moscow, Kiev and Washington.

According to Ekaterina Shebalina, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), the Vatican undoubtedly remains one of the world’s capitals of conservatism, but, at the same time, is seeking to adapt to major geopolitical shifts. Hence, the pope voicing support for Russia as a champion of traditional values is not surprising in this scenario, Izvestia writes.

"The Holy See is pushing for dialogue with Russia because it recognizes the need for consensus and does not accept the [Western] ideology that Moscow must be made to suffer a 'strategic defeat,'" Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS) and a Valdai Club expert, told the newspaper. According to him, the Vatican shares with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban a common understanding of the fairness of Russia's requirements for guarantees of its security, and clear-cut mechanisms for ensuring such guarantees, in the aftermath of the conflict.

 

Izvestia: Russia rolls out new procedure for making payments to exiting foreign companies

Foreign investors will now have the right to compensation on market terms when exiting Russian businesses, according to Izvestia. The new procedure for making payments to foreign holding companies, which may be excluded from the ownership structure of an economically significant organization (ESO) by court order, takes effect on September 4. Previously, departing foreign beneficiaries were to be compensated only at a reduced rate. According to experts, the new legislation is aimed at removing foreign players from the management of key organizations and ultimately defending the Russian economy.

If a foreign shareholding entity in an ESO engages in unfriendly behavior (e.g. by creating obstacles to management or failing to carry out shareholders’ obligations), its rights may be suspended by a Russian commercial court, meaning it would lose any influence over corporate actions and could demand compensation. "Foreign beneficiaries, including those from unfriendly countries, will be given the right to withdraw from economically significant Russian organizations on market terms," Artem Abramov, managing partner and founder of the Vinder Law Firm, told Izvestia.

According to Oleg Pavlov, head of the Public Consumer Initiative, this will create a mechanism that will allow Russian citizens to regain control of domestic companies.

Alim Bishenov of Bishenov & Partners noted that Russia is compelled to come up with new rules as no such regulatory and legal provisions currently exist. The expert believes that if the government does not take action to remove foreigners from the management of ESOs, over time such enterprises would simply cease to function, lay off employees, sell their assets, and go bankrupt.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Sunak likely to go down with ship as ruling Tories' popularity sinks

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's popularity has not increased over the summer, with nearly half of Britons dissatisfied with his administration and less than a quarter approving of his performance at 10 Downing Street, according to polls by the Observer newspaper. Under Sunak, the incumbent Conservative government has proven incapable of tackling such hot-button issues as inflation, immigration, economic growth and changes to the National Health Service (NHS), which is why the prime minister and his party are polling at such low levels of public approval, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. So far, the Tories appear to have little chance of winning the 2025 elections.

"Sunak's low ratings are due to structural rather than seasonal factors. During the winter, the prime minister made five promises: to halve inflation, reduce public debt, ensure economic growth, reduce waiting times for patients in the National Health Service for doctor's appointments and operations, and solve the problem of illegal migration across the English Channel. In fact, none of these promises have been kept," Oleg Okhoshin, a senior researcher at the Center for British Studies of the Institute of European Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the newspaper.

The expert noted that inflation had reached 6.8% by July 2023, putting pressure on less affluent Britons amid higher costs for food and essential goods. In general, the country's economic statistics are the lowest among the G7 nations, and progress is being driven by private sector initiatives rather than government policies.

"In general, Sunak's government continues to follow a restrictive migration policy, as had [former Conservative Prime Minister] David Cameron's," he noted, adding that at the same time, the British government has so far "failed to effectively solve the problem of illegal immigrants."

 

Vedomosti: LNG imports to EU in August fell to 1.5-year minimum

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to EU countries fell to 9.8 billion cubic meters in August 2023, the lowest level since February last year, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) analyzed by Vedomosti. Deliveries fell by 2.8% compared to August 2022 and by 10.6% compared to July 2023. In annual terms, LNG imports to the EU fell for the second month in a row in July, dropping 5% to 10.95 billion cubic meters compared to July last year. Supplies cannot be restored earlier than the beginning of the heating season, the newspaper writes.

According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, the decline in LNG imports to Europe in August was mainly due to the high level of filling of underground storage facilities in the region. In mid-August, the volume of gas reserves in European storage facilities exceeded the target level of 90% of the total capacity set by the EU for November 1.

Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman noted that the EU is now physically unable to import as much gas as it did a few months ago due to a lack of storage space. He added that, under these conditions, Novatek will have to divert some of its LNG supplies from Europe to Asia-Pacific markets.

According to Igor Galaktionov, securities market expert at BCS World of Investments, the downward trend in LNG imports to the EU may increase in September against the backdrop of moderately warm weather, when gas is not yet needed for heating and air conditioning use has already decreased.

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