MOSCOW, August 30. /TASS/. The UN and Turkey are seeking to coax Russia back into the Black Sea grain deal; Washington is struggling to formulate long-term security guarantees for Kiev; and the Russian foreign minister’s Asian itinerary will include Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the G20 summit in India. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Great Grain Game goes on as UN, Turkey seek to coax Russia back into grain deal

The United Nations is persevering in its efforts to persuade Russia to resume implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, making concrete proposals of how to meet Moscow’s conditions under the original grain deal provisions, diplomats told Izvestia, adding that Moscow is reluctant to accept such an approach. Meanwhile, another party to the agreements, Turkey, also continues to make efforts to revive the deal, as Ankara seeks to demonstrate its ability to address complex geopolitical issues. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit Russia in September to discuss the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Sources confirmed to Izvestia that there are plans to hold a meeting in September, without specifying the exact date or venue. On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will hold talks in Moscow with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan.

According to Oleg Barabanov, professor in the World Economy and International Affairs Department at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), a resumption of the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in its original format is unlikely. "In effect, nobody is going to meet Russia’s requirements, a portion of which would be difficult to implement under any circumstances," the expert said, referring to the restoration of the wrecked Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. In fact, Turkey may propose splitting the initial Istanbul agreements, reached in July 2022, into two components, he argues. "Obviously, Ankara is looking for an alternative and, I think, it wants Ukrainian grain exports to run independently from Russian supplies, for which separate channels will be established," Barabanov said, as he is expecting the two leaders to discuss exactly this scenario if a meeting does take place.

As the practice of preparing for such negotiations shows, the parties are coordinating a specific set of approaches, and, in general, if such a meeting is being planned, then the parties have some concrete items to put forward to each other, says Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semyonov. "If a meeting does take place, then [it will mean that] there are options. Otherwise, there would hardly be a need for such talks. Such events are usually preceded by arrangements, with some work being underway on certain discussion points. And I think that a certain base has already been formulated," the political analyst stated. According to him, this increases the chances of seeing the issue resolved, although such an outcome may not necessarily be in the cards.

 

Vedomosti: US on pothole-strewn path to formulating long-term security guarantees for Kiev

Washington is planning to hold a second round of discussions on security guarantees for Kiev with Ukrainian officials later this year, building on commitments made at a G7 meeting in July on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday. In addition to the G7, 18 countries agreed to provide military assistance to Kiev. However, the WSJ writes, the White House lacks clarity on what specific guarantees may actually be feasible over the long term to pledge to Ukraine, given that any successor to incumbent President Joe Biden and his administration could well rescind any pledges made by its predecessor should Biden lose his re-election bid in the November 2024 US presidential vote.

The United States is unlikely to halt the pipeline of military aid to Ukraine entirely even if ex-President Donald Trump does succeed in his attempt to retake the White House, Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, the US has already invested such an immense volume of funds and materiel in pumping Ukraine with weapons that this policy has become mainstream, backed by a bipartisan consensus, and thus a new president would hardly be able to radically change it. Moreover, much of the weaponry being supplied to Ukraine is made by US defense enterprises at factories where a good portion of Trump’s loyal electorate is employed, Pukhov elaborated.

However, a future Republican president could conceivably seek to tweak Washington’s Ukraine policy somewhat, said Dmitry Trenin, lead researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "Whoever is elected as the new president, Congress will insist on more robust oversight of the appropriation of funds for Ukraine and spend more time on reviewing and debating the administration’s relevant funding requests," rather than merely rubber-stamping them, the expert surmised.

On the other hand, Trenin continued, under a new administration, the White House would be forced to provide some security guarantees in exchange for Kiev agreeing to drop its bid to join NATO. According to the expert, Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance is unacceptable for Washington, as such a scenario would be fraught with major risks for the United States, which no administration could tolerate. "Perhaps, the Ukrainians will be offered guarantees based on the Pakistani model during the Cold War. Under [this model], the Americans would probably transfer a certain volume of weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces and provide military-technical assistance, but without committing to any legal obligations to protect Ukraine," the expert concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Lavrov’s Asian itinerary to include Bangladesh, Indonesia, G20 summit in India

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is planning to visit another two Asian countries before taking part in the G20 summit in India, where he will represent Russia. On September 8, Lavrov will travel to Bangladesh, diplomatic sources informed Vedomosti, and a day earlier, on September 7, he will attend the 18th East Asia Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Jakarta will lie on Lavrov’s route to New Delhi, and the planned meeting with the Indonesian leadership there is wholly in line with Moscow’s current foreign policy pivot to Asia, which comes at a time when Jakarta is seeking to play a bigger role in the international arena, Yegor Besedin, an expert on Indonesia, told Vedomosti. Which is demonstrated by the fact that Jakarta has also signaled its intention to join BRICS further down the road, Besedin added.

According to Besedin, Russia’s top diplomat may discuss weapons supplies at his meeting with senior Indonesian officials, and the Ukraine crisis may also be on the agenda, given that Indonesian President Joko Widodo acted as a peace mediator last year.

As regards Lavrov’s visit to Bangladesh, it comes at a timely and critical juncture, particularly given that he had cancelled a visit to the South Asian country for a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) last November, said Maria Savishcheva, a researcher with the Center for Studies of the Indo-Pacific Region. Lavrov will have an additional opportunity to meet with senior Bangladeshi officials on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi, in which Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is also expected to take part. Lavrov and Hasina may discuss Dhaka’s application to join BRICS, after the group announced its first major expansion at the Johannesburg summit earlier this month, the expert said.

As a developing market with one of the world’s highest growth rates, Bangladesh looks promising as a trade partner. According to the World Bank, in 2022, GDP per capita in Bangladesh was $2,688 and exceeded that of Ethiopia, whose membership request to join BRICS has already been approved.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia completes first trial flight of new Superjet passenger airliner

Russia’s SSJ-100 (Sukhoi Superjet), equipped with domestically made components and avionics, completed its maiden flight in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in the Russian Far East on Tuesday. The Russian Industry and Trade Ministry said the trial flight was a success. "During the trials, stable operation of all domestically produced systems, plane handling and stability was confirmed," the ministry said. During its debut flight, which lasted 54 minutes, the jet reached an altitude of roughly 3,000 meters and a speed of 343 kilometers per hour.

Superjet, Russia’s short-haul narrow-body passenger aircraft, was first introduced in 2008 and has been in commercial use since 2011. But the aircraft previously had foreign-made components and equipment. Since 2019, some 40 of the aircraft’s imported systems and aggregates have been replaced with Russian analogues.

And it still has SaM-146 engines produced jointly by Russia and France. This, designers say, was needed for speedier trials. The Industry and Trade Ministry said the second prototype of the jet with Russian PD-8 engines will soon undergo flight trials.

The new jet was designed, assembled and flown over a short time period, even by the standards of the global aircraft building industry, says United Aircraft Corporation CEO Yury Slyusar. Next, the aircraft will need certification before serial manufacturing for airline customers begins, he added.

The certification process is likely to be over by next summer, said Andrey Velichko, who runs the Russian Aviation news portal. If so, the program will be accelerated and engine manufacturing capacities will be set up in Russia already in 2024, after which it will be possible to calculate exactly how many Superjets can be produced domestically via import substitution, he concluded.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Western sanctions seen cutting into Russian diamond industry soon

The G7 and the EU are seeking to completely ban Russian diamond imports, the New York Times reported. An announcement about additional sanctions is expected to be made next month, and the new restrictions will take effect in January 2024.

Sanctions on Russian diamonds have been discussed since the spring of 2022 and US President Joe Biden imposed a ban on Russian uncut diamond imports last year, with Britain following suit early this year. But, in the EU, the imposition of such sanctions has until recently been blocked by Belgium, home of the world’s largest diamond cutting hub. However, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo has announced that Brussels intends to squeeze Russian diamonds from Western markets and become a leading partner in the West's efforts to curb Russia's revenues from diamond exports.

"Imposing a complete embargo on Russian diamonds is risky: The country ranks first among the world’s top five producers of rough diamonds, being well ahead of the other four - Botswana, Congo, Canada and South Africa," said Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research at the IVA Partners investment company. Russian deposits account for some 30% of the global market for uncut gems, so a complete export ban may cause two consequences: It may lead to a price spike, with the margin being redistributed from cutters to producers, and the physical market may shrink, he warned. Also, this will benefit cutters in countries that have not joined sanctions, such as Israel, he added.

With overall Russian diamond exports worth under $4 bln, a minor reduction would not critically affect budget revenues, the expert argued. "However, diamonds or even uncut stones, though the latter scenario is less likely, may get more circulation domestically under an increase in external pressure," Alexandrov said. They could join the ranks of such investments as gold, he said. Also, there is hope that the share of diamonds that will be cut and used for the production of items in Russia will grow, but the country’s position globally is still quite weak amid the absence of well-known brands or well-established marketing channels, the expert concluded.

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