MOSCOW, August 28. /TASS/. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell believes the EU’s sanctions against Russia are working; Kiev may postpone its counteroffensive until 2024 at the Pentagon’s urging; and the legal crackdown on Trump is only reinvigorating his base of support. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Borrell confident anti-Russian sanctions working despite evidence to contrary

In an article posted to his blog on the EU website, High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that the 11 packages of anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels are having the intended effect. According to him, the sanctions have already significantly limited Moscow’s options, caused financial tensions, and need to continue to help end the Ukraine conflict. However, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, Brussels’ voluminous sanctions regime has failed to achieve the ultimate goal of compelling a change of policy course in Moscow.

Borrell also highlighted the unprecedented decoupling of Europe’s longstanding ties with Russia, estimating that total exports to Europe fell by fully 58% in 2022, and non-energy exports (iron, steel, precious metals, timber) by 60%.

According to Ivan Timofeyev, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, the EU’s sanctions have not achieved their main objective of changing Moscow’s political course, thus leaving the Brussels bureaucrats nothing to report but the economic damage wrought.

And, indeed, the damage has been significant for both sides, especially given the restrictions on relatively cheap Russian oil, gas, oil products, coal, and other fossil fuels and minerals. Russia is shifting its exports to Asia, while opportunities in Russia’s domestic market, which has been abandoned by Western companies, are quickly being snapped up by both local and Asian companies, while EU consumers face higher costs for more expensive goods. As a result, Timofeyev noted, all parties are now paying more but getting less.

According to Alexander Kamkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), Borrell’s report only serves to put the spotlight on the highly dubious results achieved by the EU’s lavish sanctions regime. On the one hand, the effects of what the EU foreign policy chief outlined in his article also adversely affect the European economy, as raw materials prices rise. But, on the other hand, the goal set by Borrell and other European officials was to break the links between the EU and Russia, which they have achieved, thus making any return to the status quo ante now rather doubtful, the expert believes.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev postpones showdown battles as counteroffensive falters

For more than two months, Ukrainian forces have been engaged in a fruitless counteroffensive. Not only experts, but also top military brass in the United States and other NATO countries now believe that the Ukrainian armed forces are incapable of breaking through Russia’s defensive lines to reach Melitopol and the Sea of Azov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. At the same time, the Western brass are nudging their proteges in the Ukrainian armed forces toward shifting to focusing on making preparations for waging major battles in 2024.

Kiev’s new military strategy for 2024 was discussed at a meeting on the Polish-Ukrainian border just over a week ago, the Guardian wrote.

According to experts, the new strategy of the Ukrainian armed forces will prioritize the formation and deployment of new human reserves. Kiev’s new military plan for 2024 also calls for developing full-fledged combat-ready aviation units, in cooperation with the Pentagon and NATO.

Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands have pledged to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. According to experts, they are unlikely to enter the Ukrainian armed forces before 2024, however. The US believes that the training of Ukrainian pilots on these fighters will begin in October 2023 and will take at least 4-6 months. "Taking into account new commitments, Ukraine will receive at least 61 F-16 aircraft, according to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. This number is enough to create four squadrons," retired Colonel Vladimir Popov, a military expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

If Kiev claims that Ukrainian pilots will be trained on the F-16 by the spring or early summer of 2024, then the armed forces of Ukraine can be expected to launch new offensives around that time, the expert added.

 

Vedomosti: Trump mugshot rallied supporters, triggered record-breaking campaign donations

Former US President Donald Trump raised a record $7.1 mln in campaign donations in the three days following his arrest and booking on August 24 by law enforcement authorities in the state of Georgia on charges of interfering with the 2020 election in the key Southern state. On August 25, Trump raised $4.18 mln, more than on any previous day of his campaign. The former US president raised over $20 mln in just three weeks of aggressive prosecution against him in various US jurisdictions. Experts told Vedomosti that the attacks against Trump could help consolidate his base of voters within the Republican Party.

The charge of election tampering in Georgia marks the fourth in a series of criminal cases against Trump. However, the criminal investigations have not affected Trump’s popularity. According to RealClearPolitics polls covering the period August 15-21, the ex-president has a 55.4% approval rating among Republicans. Only 14.3% are ready to vote for his main opponent for the GOP nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

According to Evgeny Minchenko, political scientist and owner of Minchenko Consulting Communications, attacks against Trump are consolidating his voters within the Republican Party. Minchenko believes that Trump’s mugshot, which was meant to humiliate him, has instead become a galvanizing image of his readiness to fight back, judging by its successful monetization. "Unlike even his closest competitor in the potential primary, DeSantis, he has a clear image. [What] the other [candidates stand for] is extremely fuzzy for the average voter," Minchenko said.

Trump’s showcase "arrest" in Georgia could end up being a major blunder for the Democrats that will only serve to energize both regular Trump supporters and Republican members of Congress, according to Yuri Rogulev, head of the Center for the Study of the United States. However, Rogulev believes that Trump’s opponents could succeed in crippling his active involvement in the primaries and general election by scheduling trials for the most inconvenient times in the spring or October.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US seeking to balance relations with China

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has arrived in China, on the heels of recent trips by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry. According to Beijing, the talks will focus on US restrictions on the transfer of advanced technology to China. On the one hand, Washington claims that trade between the countries is mutually beneficial, while on the other hand it is trying to impose its terms on Beijing, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Beijing does not rule out the possibility that the US may impose new restrictions on Chinese companies in connection with the upcoming US presidential election.

According to Chinese experts, if the US continues to arbitrarily punish routine trade and investment activity under the guise of maintaining national security, then it is not serious about stabilizing bilateral relations. On the other hand, several friendly gestures were made before the US commerce secretary’s visit. The State Department announced its intention to approve a six-month extension of the US-China Science and Technology Agreement, which was due to expire on August 27.

"The Chinese side is pinning its hopes on these negotiations to ease US sanctions policy," Alexander Lomanov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "The US is increasingly restricting the sale of new technologies. This is China’s top priority. But even the most qualified officials will not be able to solve this problem, because it has long since passed from the realm of economics to the realm of politics, to the realm of the growing rivalry between the two powers. This trend will almost certainly not be reversed at the next series of [high-level] meetings," the expert believes.

"The start of the presidential campaign in the United States may contribute to a new escalation of tensions with China," he noted, adding that, at the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to attend the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Forum in San Francisco at the end of the year.

 

Izvestia: Fate of Russian Hyundai plant may be decided in September

The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider in September a project to localize the production facilities of Avtotor at the Hyundai plant in St. Petersburg, Izvestia writes. The plant has been idle since the beginning of Russia’s special military operation. Two candidates for the site emerged in August - car dealer Avilon and car manufacturer Avtotor.

One of the sources told the newspaper that the final decision on the fate of the plant rests with Hyundai. However, the company wants to know how the Russian government sees its future development, because the company is concerned that "the plant may simply be nationalized."

According to the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the issues involved in the further development of Hyundai’s St. Petersburg plant are still being worked out, taking into account the positions of all interested parties. Various options are being considered, but no final decisions have been made yet.

According to Sergey Udalov, executive director of the Autostat agency, Hyundai’s prolonged shutdown is due to the fact that the company does not want to leave the Russian market; it is monitoring the situation and waiting to see what happens next. Negotiations with numerous potential buyers are also a lengthy process.

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