MOSCOW, July 26. /TASS/. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu leads delegation on first post-Soviet trip to North Korea; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reform plan reignites social tensions; and Baku-Yerevan talks at impasse following latest round in Moscow. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Russian defense chief leads delegation on first post-USSR visit to North Korea

A Russian delegation led by Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu is visiting the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on July 25-27 to attend festivities marking the 70th anniversary of North Korea’s victory in the Fatherland Liberation War of 1950-1953, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday. This marks the first visit by a delegation led by Russia’s defense chief since the end of the Soviet era.

Both North Korea and South Korea boast immense potential for producing ammunition and various types of missiles, capacities necessitated by the possibility of a hot war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula, which would require a massive use of cannon and rocket artillery as well as operational-tactical missiles, a source close to the Defense Ministry told Vedomosti. According to him, this is why the United States has been buying such items from South Korea in order to replenish its arsenal amid a deficit of weapons that can be supplied to Ukraine. In contrast, Russia has no need to procure military stocks from the DPRK, the more so since such sales are banned under a relevant UN Security Council resolution.

Shoigu’s visit should clearly be viewed as not having any secondary objective aside from his participation in ceremonies marking a major North Korean military holiday, for which a foreign military delegation’s attendance is entirely appropriate, said Andrey Frolov, an expert at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). Another expert, Ilya Dyachkov, associate professor with the Department of Asian Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), does not expect the visit to lead to any breakthrough in relations between Moscow and Pyongyang. In particular, he pointed to the near-zero level of cooperation between the two countries. Despite North Korea‘s amicable and supportive attitude across the board toward Russia’s special military operation, there is no practical bilateral cooperation amid Pyongyang’s self-isolation and the international sanctions against it, which Russia recognizes as a UN Security Council member. Therefore, there should be no expectations that any major agreements with North Korea will be signed during Shoigu’s visit, Dyachkov said.

However, to Andrey Karneyev, head of HSE University’s School of Asian Studies, the trip indicates positive dynamics in relations between Moscow and Pyongyang. "[Moscow’s] efforts to develop bilateral ties with friendly nations seem justified, and Shoigu’s visit can be viewed in this light," he concluded.

 

Izvestia: Tensions rising in Israel as Netanyahu's plan to reduce judicial power proceeds

Israeli labor unions and even the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) called for strike action after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition enacted its judicial overhaul bill on July 24 into a law that revokes the "reasonableness standard" clause, thus crippling the Israeli Supreme Court’s ability to overrule government decisions. While the measure is supposed to strengthen democracy in the country, opponents of the reform fear that the move would only put more power into the hands of the Jewish state’s incumbent leadership.

The judicial reform plan was met with harsh criticism from Israel’s leading media outlets. As well, the Israeli Medical Association said it would hold a 24-hour work stoppage in protest and the authorities failed to obtain a judicial injunction blocking the strike. Netanyahu said that the coalition was open to dialogue with the opposition but warned that the process of finding a compromise on key issues may last until November.

Protest actions against the judicial overhaul are being driven by internal strife among the country’s elites, specifically the judicial and executive authorities, Alexander Kargin, an expert on Israel and the Middle East, told Izvestia. According to him, the judicial reform is long overdue and is in line with public opinion among the majority of Israeli citizens, who oppose the "dictatorship of lawyers." The more liberal-minded segment of the public opposes the reform, however, and the current crisis will determine whether Israel will take the liberal path and move westwards or choose a more traditional course, he said.

Israel’s Western allies - the United States, the European Union and Britain - expressed the greatest disapproval of the judicial reform. The administration of US President Joe Biden, represented by White House Spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, regretted that the vote had taken place "with the slimmest possible majority." Biden himself criticized Netanyahu, with the EU sharing his critical assessment of the reform.

While Israel remains Washington’s strategic partner in the Middle East, the Biden administration is ideologically on the side of the protesters, Kargin explained. According to him, the White House would like the demonstrations to succeed, as if the opposition came to power, the Jewish state would be more hostile toward Russia, and Israel’s perception of the conflict in Ukraine may change in Washington’s favor, too, the expert added.

 

Kommersant: Baku-Yerevan talks at impasse following latest round in Moscow

The latest round of talks between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow became yet another attempt for Baku and Yerevan to get a step closer to a peace treaty, and for Russia to reaffirm its role as an influential mediator. However, the two sides still have a long way to go toward achieving a compromise, and the high frequency of their meetings has not translated into much success thus far, something that irritates Baku the most. And Azerbaijan is making it abundantly clear that its patience is not unlimited.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Larvov, who received his counterparts in Moscow on Tuesday, said seeking "long-term stabilization in the South Caucasus has been the goal." He also said that Moscow expected to give its blessings to a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan that should be signed on Russian soil.

Thus far, however, each new meeting, no matter the venue - Washington, Brussels or Moscow - has ended only with generic words about it having been a useful exercise and having shortened the path to a peace treaty by a certain number of steps. And, yet, it still remains unclear how long it will take to get the deal done. While Azerbaijan’s top diplomat, Jeyhun Bayramov, said it would be incorrect to say that the latest meeting had produced no positive results at all, his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan, said the two parties were still far away from each other.

Armenian political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan believes that the negotiations are still a long way off from the finish line. "What has been happening is an informal Minsk group (to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - Kommersant). Although the group has actually been dysfunctional, Europe, America and Russia still press on with these negotiations. The format is controversial because of the nature of relations within the Troika, where there is jealousy, disagreement, and so on. So, I am not very upbeat about that. But, I may be wrong and the signing of a document will indeed take place. But, even in that case, there is a possibility that signing a peace treaty with such different approaches will fail to lead to any actual changes on the ground," the expert told Kommersant.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia forecast to see up to 2% annual GDP growth in next three years

The Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting said it would be necessary for Russia to "realign the entire structure of the economy" for national security reasons, but asked: How fast should the economy grow to effect such a realignment? On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country should see a more than 2% increase in its GDP in 2023. Meanwhile, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting said the Russian economy would continue to grow by an average 2% annually until 2026.

It is unclear whether such a forecast should be viewed as a success or stagnation. To Alexander Chepurenko at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), the forecast "is based on quite favorable expectations regarding prices, the ruble rate and unemployment," the three volatile factors that fluctuate at lightning speed, sometimes on a daily basis. Artyom Tuzov, director of the Capital Markets Department at Iva Partners, found the forecast quite conservative.

Anna Fedyunina, deputy director of the Institute for Structural Policy Research at HSE University, saw things a bit differently: "At first glance, a 2% growth forecast can be viewed with moderate pessimism, as everybody would like the Russian economy to recover from sanctions faster, but things are not so simple."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for one, expects the global economy to rise by 3% next year. According to the latest World Economic Outlook Update, published on Tuesday, the United States should see 1% growth in 2024, and the eurozone should grow by 1.5%. That is, Fedyunina explained, "the Russian economy burdened by sanctions is expected to grow faster than the economies [of those countries] that imposed the sanctions."

"The good news is that those developing economies that have not joined the sanctions will see much faster growth," of 4.1%, according to the IMF, Fedyunina continued. "This means that Russia has a chance to accelerate growth by expanding economic cooperation with fast-growing friendly nations," she concluded.

 

Kommersant: Russian natural gas production sees slower decline

According to Kommersant, Russia saw a slower monthly decline in gas production in June, when Russian companies produced 44.8 billion cubic meters of gas, or 4.5% less than in the previous year. This is explained by the high base effect of 2022 beginning to weaken last month. In January-June, Russian gas production amounted to 330 billion cubic meters, an almost 10% decline year on year. Russian gas giant Gazprom reduced its gas production in June by about 14.8% to 24.9 billion cubic meters, after cutting it by 19% in the first half of 2023 to 204.7 billion cubic meters. The drop in Novatek’s gas production was as significant amid scheduled maintenance.

The June figures were mostly as expected for Sergey Kondratyev of the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation. The decline in production in June slowed down to 4.5% year on year against a stronger decline in May, with gas production volumes last summer falling to the lowest since 2016. He said the results could have been better in June if it were not for maintenance at Yamal LNG, while production by another oil major, Rosneft, plateaued month on month, although the annual rate was nevertheless impressive.

The analyst also pointed to a drop in gas production at the fields operated by Lukoil, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, which may indirectly indicate a reduction in oil production at those old fields where the gas production rate is especially high. "I think the base effect in the latter half of 2023 will enable Russia to see a slower gas production decline of 5.5% to 6%, to 630-635 billion cubic meters, unless any weather anomalies occur," Kondratyev concluded.

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