MOSCOW, July 6. /TASS/. Experts assess Poland’s prospects for joining NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program; Kiev may seek to claim it prevented alleged nuclear disaster at Vilnius summit; and Switzerland looking to take part in Europe’s Sky Shield defense initiative. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Experts assess prospects for Poland soon joining NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program

NATO is not ruling out the potential inclusion of Poland in the bloc’s Nuclear Sharing program, in which case nuclear weapons could be deployed to the Eastern European country. A spokesperson for the North Atlantic Alliance told Izvestia that member states are continuously readjusting their planning and strategy. In addition, Poland currently takes part in NATO exercises as a member of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), experts pointed out. However, joining the bloc’s Nuclear Sharing program may be a lengthy, laborious process, experts warned, and thus they do not foresee the deployment of nukes on Polish soil any time soon.

At present, only three NATO member countries - the United States, Great Britain and France - officially have nuclear arsenals, with France the only NATO member opting to stay out of the NPG. US B61 nuclear bombs are currently based at six facilities in five European NATO member countries, namely Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, with a total of 100 such weapons being deployed at those sites.

However, the chances of Poland becoming a part of the Nuclear Sharing program are rather slim, noted Vasily Klimov, junior research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAN). He described Warsaw’s current prospects as vague and dubious. "For the time being, Poland would like to start working toward persuading its NATO allies to give it access to the program. However, joining it may take quite a long time and be no less laborious a process than the entry of a new member to the North Atlantic Alliance," he explained.

In an interview with Izvestia, Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, suggested that the alliance could discuss the scenario at the Vilnius summit next week. "NATO will take a range of measures associated with the idea of posing new challenges and threats to Russia under the guise of rhetoric proclaiming the need to beef up defenses against the ‘Russian threat,’" he said. "Poland is as close as you can get to Belarus, and our two countries are constituent members of the Union State and are now seen as NATO’s adversaries. So, they could draw up some kind of roadmap for the [eventual] deployment of nuclear weapons on Polish soil" at the summit, he surmised.

Russia would, in any case, react with "extreme disapproval" to any transfer of US nuclear weapons to Warsaw, Klimov added. Among other potential responses, Moscow could expand its nuclear presence in Belarus or deploy more missile systems, including nuclear ones, on Belarusian soil, Novikov concluded.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev may seek kudos at NATO summit for allegedly foiling nuke debacle

Kiev has been issuing increasingly shrill warnings about a looming nuclear disaster ahead of the NATO summit on July 11-12 in Vilnius. On the night of July 4, the situation around the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) heated up amid Kiev’s latest allegations that Russia may be plotting to blow up the nuclear facility under its control. However, according to experts, Russian specialists are taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the facility.

In the past few days, the heads of various agencies in Kiev have issued recommendations to the population on what to do if a nuclear disaster occurs. On its Telegram channel, the Ukrainian Health Ministry advised citizens to prepare for a potential evacuation that may be triggered by a possible explosion at the ZNPP. Further clarifications by Ukrainian experts provided scant reassurances. Although Ludvig Litvinsky, a former employee of Ukraine’s Institute for Nuclear Research, gave assurances on Wednesday that no apocalypse would transpire even if "everything contained inside the power reactors explodes," he added that any potential scenario would be no worse than the 1986 incident at Chernobyl. However, it would not be possible to avoid radioactive contamination, he warned. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar urged the population to remain calm amid what she said was Russia’s escalation of the situation around the ZNPP.

The statements came even as top Ukrainian power producer Energoatom confirmed on Wednesday that the water levels in the ZNPP’s cooling pond remain stable and that the plant continues to operate normally. And, in their latest report, analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) acknowledged that Russia "remains unlikely to cause a radiological incident at this time."

Indeed, Alexey Leonkov, a Russian military expert and editor-in-chief of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the Zaporozhye nuke plant was built in the Soviet era so as to withstand potential NATO strikes. Therefore, a disaster similar to Chernobyl should not be expected, he said. However, local radioactive contamination could occur if the dry storage facility is blown up as a result of continued Ukrainian shelling. Meanwhile, experts at Russian state nuclear power corporation Rosatom are making every effort to foresee all potential risks and take measures to avoid a catastrophe, Leonkov argues. According to him, if the scenario of a nuclear disaster does not materialize by the time of the NATO summit, Kiev may well attempt to take credit anyway for having prevented such an eventuality.

 

Izvestia: Why Bern is seeking to join European air defense umbrella

Switzerland has decided to follow Austria’s lead as Bern announced that it is seeking to participate in the European Sky Shield, an air defense project initiated last year by Germany. Although Bern and Vienna will sign a formal memorandum to join the umbrella as early as this Friday, not everyone approves of such a move. The opposition in Austria is concerned that Vienna will then be deprived of the opportunity to mediate a peace settlement between Moscow and Kiev. In addition, the two countries’ traditional stance of neutrality will also be called into question.

Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAN), told Izvestia that it remains unclear how all that will work. "The more so since the shield will include Israeli, US and European air defense systems. Although the challenge can be resolved, it will require major financial and political investments," he argued. And yet, there is nothing for Russia to worry about in military terms, as the Sky Shield is a purely defensive project. This explains why Russia has not issued any harsh response, he said.

However, joining the European air defense project, in effect, may be viewed as another step by Austria and Switzerland to cede their neutrality. Vladimir Shveitser, head of the Social and Political Studies Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Europe, is confident that Austria, and in particular Switzerland, will be compelled to share the West’s common policy, as otherwise the US and the EU may impose certain sanctions on them. "Although Switzerland is not an EU member, it has several agreements that make it a de facto player in the European economy. Therefore, it cannot stay away from [the bloc’s] economic ties with the West," the expert told Izvestia.

And the issue is very acute for Austria as well. On the one hand, the Austrians claim they have no intention of forsaking their neutrality. But, on the other hand, Vienna has to take into account the European Union’s common security and defense policy. And it is unclear how these two realities can be reconciled in Austria’s case. Therefore, Austria will have to maneuver, Dmitry Danilov, head of the European Security Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, said in an interview with Izvestia. As for Switzerland, the Alpine nation lacks sufficient domestic defense capabilities to ensure its own security. Bern cannot but join the common air defense project, since too much pressure is being exerted on it, the expert concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban express readiness to attend future SCO summits

The Taliban (movement prohibited in Russia as a terrorist organization) would like to participate in the next annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), slated to be held in Astana in 2024, according to a statement published on the Afghan Foreign Ministry’s website on Wednesday in the wake of this year’s virtual summit of SCO national leaders, which wrapped up on Tuesday. Taliban officials also expressed their support for the SCO summit statement adopted in New Delhi, which calls for an "independent, stable, and united Afghanistan that would be free from wars or drugs."

Conducted as a virtual online event, the 23rd SCO summit was chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 4. It was attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the leaders of four Central Asian republics. Among other outcomes, the meeting resulted in Iran gaining official membership.

Summit participants also discussed the situation around Afghanistan, including efforts to form an inclusive government there with the participation of all of the country’s ethnic groups, as well as human rights and the fight against terrorism. During the summit, Putin said combatting terrorist organizations, illegal drug trafficking and organized crime was a priority for Russia and its allies in Central Asia, while Sharif said a peaceful and stable Afghanistan would contribute to global peace, security and progress.

Afghanistan may become a full-fledged member of the SCO and attend its summits only after the United Nations recognizes the Afghan government as legitimate, Kyrgyz political analyst Mars Sariev told Vedomosti. "Meanwhile the entire world considers the Taliban a terrorist organization. Forming an inclusive government in Kabul, with the involvement of all national minorities, will be a step toward gaining recognition for the Taliban," the expert added. But ethnic Pashtuns currently hold a monopoly on power in the country, with other groups, including Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and Kyrgyz, de facto excluded from political processes in Afghanistan, the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Central Bank of Russia may move to raise rates as ruble weakens

The Central Bank of Russia may raise its key interest rate to up to 8.5% at a meeting on July 21, said market players interviewed by Izvestia. On Wednesday, the Russian currency fell to rates of 91 per $1 and 99 per 1 euro, exhibiting a weakening trend that the bank regulator said was due to a shrinking trade balance. While banks forecast that the ruble will consolidate in the range of 85 to 92 against the greenback, experts say the central bank may intervene by selling its yuan reserves.

"The falling ruble increases the likelihood of a 50 basis point (bp) rate hike by the Bank of Russia to 8% at its next meeting. It could also raise its rate by 75 bp or even 100 bp, if the national currency keeps falling in the remaining weeks and if inflation spirals up," Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, told Izvestia. Nevertheless, in the next few days the ruble may find support from the monetary authorities’ verbal interventions, and therefore it will trade steadily at 86 to 91 per $1, Vasilyev warned. The analyst said the daily yuan interventions to the tune of 3.6 billion rubles ($39 million) have clearly not been enough to prop up the Russian economy.

If the ruble falls beyond 90 per dollar, the Central Bank of Russia could sell yuans, Sergey Konygin, senior economist at Sinara investment bank, added. The higher the volume of foreign currency is in the market, the more the ruble will be supported, the expert argued, as he said the yuan reserves of over $100 billion will allow the regulator to do so.

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