MOSCOW, May 16. /TASS/. China’s special envoy is set to visit Russia and Ukraine, among other stops on his itinerary; the EU moves to designate weapons as carbon-neutral, thus lifting the carbon tax burden; and Japan together with other US allies are wary of Beijing but are seeking to avoid a conflict. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: China’s special envoy set to visit Moscow, Kiev, other capitals

China's Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will visit Russia, Ukraine, Poland, France and Germany this week. His trip can be viewed as part of Beijing’s efforts to reach a settlement for the situation in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is touring European countries, seeking to create "a coalition of fighter jet suppliers," but, thus far, no one from among Zelensky’s European hosts, including the leaders of Italy, Germany, France and Great Britain, has agreed to join in, Izvestia writes.

Since the very start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, China has been attempting to take the position of a mediator to facilitate ending the conflict. At the same time, however, Beijing has refused to condemn or criticize Russia, prompting accusations of ideological ties to Moscow.

"For China, this is the first serious effort to take part in a real major initiative to settle a conflict, as they say, ‘from scratch.’ In general, the country has tried its hand at resolving a number of other thorny issues before. However, as for the widely reported interaction between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Beijing merely stepped onto what was already well-prepared ground because both countries were actually ready to begin talks by that time. That said, the current crisis is a serious challenge for China," said Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies.

China’s peace plan is nothing other than a comprehensive initiative reflecting Beijing’s vision of the present world order. So, even though Beijing fully realizes that neither the West nor Ukraine is currently prepared to respond to its proposal, it is still seeking to establish itself as a serious global power with its own understanding of problems facing the contemporary world and paths for resolving them, Alexander Lomanov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out.

"Right now, the Chinese special envoy’s main goal is to clarify the positions of all parties. Russia has stated that it is open to talks. Ukraine, in contrast, has been making it clear in recent weeks that talks are out of the question. It’s crucial for Li Hui to find out how independent Zelensky is in his decision-making and whether he understands what the current changes in the geopolitical situation may be leading to. The main thing is to talk to everyone one by one and then come up with a systemic option," Maslov emphasized.

 

Vedomosti: EU moves to classify weapons as carbon-neutral, thus lifting carbon tax burden

Europe will now designate goods with a military application as carbon-neutral and henceforth defense industry goods will be excluded from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), under which tariffs are imposed on carbon-intensive products, Vedomosti writes, citing the Institute of Natural Monopolies Research (IPEM).

The United States is the main exporter of defense products to the European Union. It is clear that the burden of extra payments has now been lifted in the interests of the defense industries of the US and other countries, including South Korea, which are now expected to boost weapons exports to EU countries in the coming years, said a source close to main Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport. For instance, the carbon footprint from producing an advanced fighter jet is no less than that from manufacturing a passenger airliner, the source noted (whereas the civilian aviation industry will continue to be subject to carbon taxes).

It is obvious that the US will benefit most from the current global situation, while European Union nations are first among the many countries that have lost their strategic positions, said Yekaterina Novikova, associate professor in the Economic Theory Department at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Not only has the US attracted a lot of skilled workers from Europe for its economy, but it has also compelled Europe to purchase its goods, the expert noted. In making such a choice, European countries are providing vital support for the US defense industry and the US economy in general. Just like during WWII, the US is beefing up its weapons production, which in turn is benefiting the country’s economy overall.

Verifying a given product’s carbon footprint requires the disclosure of a great amount of data that even NATO countries’ defense industries would be unwilling to share with each other, IPEM Deputy Director General Alexander Grigoryev points out. Never mind comparing the carbon footprints of civilian and military goods, but just imagine a situation where the EU would start to demand that US arms suppliers disclose such data for verification purposes, the expert said.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Japan, other US allies wary of Beijing but seeking to avoid conflict

The first-ever Asia-Pacific meeting of Munich Security Conference participants is taking place in the Japanese capital of Tokyo. The event has brought together representatives of Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and several Southeast Asian nations. An invitation was also sent to China, but, according to the Japanese media, Beijing declined to attend, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, pointed out that "officially, Tokyo has not called on NATO countries to expand their activities to the Indo-Pacific Region, or the Asia-Pacific Region, which is what we call it." "However, the United States, a NATO member state, has long been active there, primarily seeking to contain China. For Japan, it’s not enough. It views China as its main military threat, followed by North Korea and Russia. Still, the country’s National Security Strategy published last year describes China and Russia not as a threat but as a challenge, while North Korea is identified as a threat," the expert said.

According to him, "China causes the most concern." "Tokyo says that it [China] has laid claim to the Senkaku (Diaoyudao) Islands in the East China Sea, which are under Japanese administration, as well as to large areas in the South China Sea and also to Taiwan. This is why Tokyo would like to create networks targeted against China. In particular, an alliance is being formed that will unite Japan, the US and the Philippines. In theory, NATO’s expansion to the Asia-Pacific Region poses a threat to Russia, as well. It cannot be ruled out that if tensions continue to rise in Ukraine, Japan and its allies would take some action against our country," Kistanov noted.

Meanwhile, Christoph Heusgen, a retired German diplomat who has served as chairman of the Munich Security Conference since 2022, says that although NATO’s relations with Indo-Pacific nations have been deepening, the alliance is unlikely to engage in any potential conflict in Asia. Plans to open a NATO liaison office in Tokyo indicate NATO countries’ interest in regional stability. However, when it comes to active participation in conflicts in the Indo-Pacific Region, each nation will act on its own in such scenarios.

 

Vedomosti: Erdogan’s bloc wins majority in Turkish parliament as presidential runoff looms

Turkey is gearing up for a presidential runoff, or second-round vote, on May 28 after neither incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People's Party, secured an absolute majority of votes in the first round of the country’s presidential election on May 14. Meanwhile, the pro-presidential People’s Alliance won a majority in the concurrent parliamentary elections, Vedomosti notes.

If Kilicdaroglu wins the second-round vote, he would face a parliament in which pro-Erdogan forces will have a majority, Pavel Shlykov, associate professor at Moscow State University's Institute of Asian and African Studies, said. Thus, should it gain the presidential chair, Erdogan’s opposition would find it extremely difficult to make any constitutional changes and carry out its election promises.

There will be no serious changes in Ankara’s foreign policy no matter what the outcome of the runoff is, said Alina Vernigora, junior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "It [Turkish foreign policy] is multi-orientation by nature and it will remain that way. Efforts will be made to restore relations with the West, but to an extent where it would not harm the [Turkish] national interest should it be dependent on relations with Russia," the analyst noted.

As for the issue of Syria, Turkey will likely reconsider its approach, Turkish political scientist Hakan Aksay pointed out. Challenger Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People's Party has long called for restoring direct relations with the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad. At some point in the future, Ankara will start the process of withdrawing its troops from the country, the expert noted. According to him, Moscow could give a boost to the process, although it is unclear what position Washington would take as the Americans could try to throw up roadblocks. However, the expert expects the issue to be resolved promptly.

As far as Russia is concerned, Turkey will play the role of a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Aksay noted. Ankara will not join in anti-Russian sanctions unless doing so would serve its national interests. The opposition’s goal is to facilitate efforts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and remain a mediator in the Black Sea grain deal, the expert concluded.

 

Media: EU plans to expand sanctions to Russian pipeline gas supplies

The G7 and the European Union intend to include Russian pipeline gas imports in the 11th package of sanctions to be imposed on Moscow, targeting routes through which Russia has already reduced its gas exports. The West may take the step following a G7 summit scheduled for May 19-21, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.

EU countries may very well make such a move as it is mostly a symbolic one and would not affect the market, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman said. According to him, the transit routes that the ban under consideration will target have already been closed (which concerns, first and foremost, the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline). Moscow actually suspended gas supplies through these routes last year.

According to Andrey Suzdaltsev, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), about ten percent of gas in the European market currently comes from Russian pipeline supplies. Certain amounts of Russian LNG are exported through terminals but it is not much. "In financial terms, we aren’t going to face huge losses. It is Hungary, Serbia and some other Eastern European countries that will suffer from the ban," the expert explained.

The measures under consideration are symbolic, Maxim Nikulin, leading expert with the Center for Applied Analysis of International Transformations at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, told Izvestia. Since two key pipelines - Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream 1 - are no longer in operation, the new restrictions by the collective West would largely be aimed at demonstrating solidarity and determination to combat Russia, he went on to say.

"All in all, such restrictions will not have a serious impact on Russia’s energy sector. The potential ban on Russian pipeline gas supplies in certain directions will be a symbolic decision as the most damage came from the sanctions that the West introduced in 2022," the expert stressed.

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