MOSCOW, April 27. /TASS/. China’s pitch for peace talks presents an alternative to the West’s arms-centric approach to the Ukrainian crisis; Ukrainian grain exports may end up being sold twice; and Russian gas exports seen taking a two-fold tumble in 2023. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: China steps in to mediate Ukrainian crisis after Xi-Zelensky call

Beijing is once again stepping in to act as a mediator of the Ukrainian conflict, this time by setting up a channel of communication with Kiev. Chinese leader Xi Jinping will send his Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs and former Ambassador to Russia, Li Hui, to Ukraine and then to other countries to conduct an in-depth dialogue on a potential political settlement. This development followed a phone conversation between Xi and his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Zelensky, held at Kiev’s initiative and during which China’s leader said that such a dialogue was the only viable way out of the conflict.

China was extremely clear that talks are the only possible way to find an exit from the current situation, says Alexander Lomanov, lead researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. That said, Xi’s promise to send his special envoy on Eurasian affairs to Ukraine and other countries can be seen as an attempt to activate mediating functions for mending ties between Kiev and the other parties involved in the conflict.

According to Lomanov, China is presenting a "direct alternative" to the West’s policy, which has been betting on a military resolution to the conflict, presumably culminating in a victory for Ukraine. Xi noted that relations between the two countries had reached the level of a strategic partnership, which may justify China’s role as Ukraine’s longtime reliable partner with sufficient authority and clout to settle the crisis, the expert concluded.

China is not involved in the conflict and has sent weapons to neither Ukraine nor Russia, says Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Asia and Africa Institute. In Beijing’s opinion, this gives them the right to conduct negotiations. If they do take place, it would be a major blow to the US strategy because Washington is not interested in bringing an end to the hostilities, the expert adds. If the conflict is settled at Beijing’s initiative, China would also win on the Taiwan issue because it would demonstrate that even the most complex conflict can be resolved via talks, the expert asserts.

Maslov highlights the fact that Xi did not personally go to Ukraine, while he finds the fact that Li Hui was picked as an envoy unsurprising, because the diplomat is very familiar with both the Ukrainian and Russian situations, understands the Slavic mindset and speaks Russian.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU brings back restrictions on agricultural imports from Ukraine

Along with banning the import of wheat, corn, canola and sunflowers from Ukraine, the European Commission has also decided to ban vegetable oil imports. Thus, the EU has returned to its previous restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural imports. Experts are reiterating that such restrictions had been lifted earlier in order to obtain additional profit from selling cheap grain while the military conflict rages. That said, if representatives from the UN World Food Program agree to buy up the surplus accumulated by the EU in order to redirect it to Africa’s neediest countries, this would mean that Europe would make money twice from the same Ukrainian grain.

According to Rostislav Ishchenko, president of the Center for Systems Analysis and Forecasting, the EU was essentially ensuring its own food security, being driven by the reasonable concern that, given the ongoing military action, established supply chains could break down and prices would soar. Meanwhile, Ukrainian agricultural products have now saturated European markets and brought prices down. The EU had been hedging such risks in the past by introducing quotas or even completely blocking agrarian imports from Ukraine, which included both grain and oil, so it has simply brought back its previous restrictive measures, the expert told the newspaper. That said, he noted that it is entirely within the realm of possibility that the proposed system may prove ineffective or exceedingly costly.

In turn, Andrey Suzdaltsev, a political scientist at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that in this situation, the EU leadership made several mistakes. Not only did they "get greedy," but they also failed to think ahead about how to secure themselves against a possible surplus. Currently, Brussels is resorting to band-aid solutions, proposing subsidies that are insignificant from the viewpoint of losses, instead of ensuring the buy-out of the grain surplus, using its own funds, the expert stressed. That said, he added that the option suggested by the World Food Program, if an agreement is achieved, would not be free of charge. That is, Ukrainian grain may be resold twice and not at the price at which it had initially been purchased from local farmers, the expert noted.

Given these opinions, doubts are emerging as to whether the interested parties can manage to resolve the "grain crisis" by the end of Poland’s temporary ban on Ukrainian agricultural exports, which Warsaw has instituted until June 30.

According to Ishchenko, there are a lot of unknowns here. "The new harvest is yet to be reaped. And it is hard to tell what it will be like. Just as it is hard to tell which Ukrainian territories will cease to be Ukrainian by that time," he concluded.

 

Izvestia: Russian gas exports may see two-fold plunge in 2023 - forecast

Exports of Russian pipeline gas in 2023 may see a two-fold decline - from 100 bln cubic meters to 50 bln - according to a forecast by the Russian State Council’s Energy Commission. The key drivers behind such a precipitous drop would be sanctions and the rejection of Russian raw materials by Western customers. As a compensatory measure, Russia should increase domestic consumption by switching its transportation infrastructure to this type of fuel, increasing the gas penetration rate and building more compressed natural gas (CNG) plants.

"Unfortunately, it is difficult to redirect the volumes of pipeline gas deliveries to other markets quickly. There are some intermediate options, such as the ‘Turkish hub’ or making deliveries to China via Central Asia, which are being developed. However, building new infrastructure in this business always involves long-term projects that require time and money," says Alexey Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund.

In the coming years, Russia may lose about 1.5 trillion rubles in tax revenue due to reduced export levels, says Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the Reliable Partner association, which brings together energy producers and sellers. However, in order to make use of those volumes no longer being directed toward export, it would be necessary to develop industry sectors that use this raw material more intensively, the expert thinks, for example, in the gas-to-chemicals conversion process or in the production of nitrogen fertilizers, as well as switching generating facilities to gas.

 

Kommersant: Lawmakers intensify battle against foreign agents, their accessories

On Wednesday, the Russian State Duma’s Commission for Investigating Foreign Interference in Russia's Internal Affairs, led by Chairman Vasily Piskarev, introduced a set of amendments to existing laws governing the activities of foreign agents. This time, the legislators are considering not only foreign agents themselves but also those individuals and organizations that aid them in circumventing legal bans. The lawmakers are also proposing that only those foreign NGOs that have officially registered their affiliated Russian entities with the Justice Ministry be allowed to operate in Russia.

As Piskarev explained to reporters, foreign agents are attempting to circumvent legal bans by "using various private individuals and legal entities as intermediaries." "An example of such abetting to circumvent our legislation may be allowing a foreign agent to teach at a state university, issuing state grants to foreign agents, and so on," the legislator noted.

According to Dmitry Gorbunov, partner at law firm Rustam Kurmaev & Partners, these new restrictions on foreign NGOs may have very serious repercussions for Russian citizens. "The standard for participation in the activity of NGOs registered only in Russia is not a type of know-how that is exclusive to our country; these conditions are being implemented in other jurisdictions as well," he says. This may be understood to mean that any NGO seeking to organize, for example, a seminar or a meeting, may fall under this restriction, and therefore any citizen participating in its organization may be held liable. All unregistered foreign NGOs would effectively become illegal and any interaction with them "could lead to negative consequences," he cautions, noting, however, that the legislation does not contain any exhaustive list of the specific types of such interaction.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Rare metals outweighing oil in level of importance for global economy

Global economic leaders have come to realize that guaranteed supplies of rare metals represent a more critical issue than global oil prices. Leading analytical centers are forecasting a manifold increase in demand for lithium or nickel due to increased arms production and the switch to a low-carbon economy. Experts from the RAND Corporation and the World Economic Forum have named the production of rare metals as the key industry of the future.

"Thanks to a joint project between Norilsk Nickel and Rosatom, a single production chain will be formed, beginning with the extraction of raw materials and their processing and ending with the production of lithium ion batteries and electric cars. As a result, Russia will achieve a real breakthrough in the global market, eliminating the dominant positions of Chile, Australia, China and Argentina," says independent industry expert Leonid Khazanov.

"Russia and China have the largest stocks of rare earth metals," Alexander Timofeyev, senior lecturer at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told the newspaper. According to him, together Russia and China may limit exports to EU countries of rare earth metals used in the production of magnets, electric lamps, monitors, catalysts, lasers, condensers and optics.

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