MOSCOW, February 28. /TASS/. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko begins his three-day visit to China, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is embarking on a Central Asian tour, and the grain export deal is likely to be extended. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: What issues Belarusian leader seeks to raise in China

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko begins his three-day visit to China on February 28. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the Belarusian leader will seek to strengthen ties with Beijing and may also express support for China’s position on the Ukraine conflict.

"Like Russia, we are pivoting to the East and view China, India and other Eurasian countries as our key markets. In this regard, we need to boost logistical ties and establish a system to recognize technical certificates and production standards. And we definitely need joint projects. I believe that the president will discuss the entire range of these issues, as far as the economy is concerned," Chairman of the Permanent Commission for Foreign Affairs at the Belarusian House of Representatives Andrey Savinykh said.

According to Assistant Director of the Institute for Global Governance Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies Zhao Long, one of the goals of the visit will be to secure China’s support for Minsk joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS cooperation mechanism.

News about Lukashenko’s visit came after China had released a document on the situation in Ukraine. Experts point out that Belarus may express support for Beijing’s vision of resolving the Ukrainian crisis. "There is a focus on territorial integrity and we know that Belarus has not yet legally recognized even Crimea, let alone the new Russian regions. Lukashenko could support this plan, especially since Russia does not oppose it," Associate Professor at the Far Eastern Federal University’s Department of International Relations Artyom Lukin noted.

Zhao Long, in turn, said that China and Belarus saw eye to eye on ways to facilitate a ceasefire and the resumption of talks, so the visit could strengthen that consensus.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Why Russia needs to extend grain deal

Active talks on extending the grain deal, which expires on March 18, are expected to begin this week. The United Nations and Turkey have demanded solid guarantees from the West in terms of access of Russian agricultural products and mineral fertilizers to the global market. So far, Russia has not benefited from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, said experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

Russian grain exporters have learned to work under hidden sanctions, though problems remain, Chairman of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin said, pointing to payment issues and a lack of ships.

Ukraine and Europe are the main beneficiaries of the grain deal, Director General of the ProZerno analytical company Vladimir Petrichenko emphasized. Obstacles to Russian grain exports still exist. Ukrainian grain is sold cheaper, pushing Russian grain prices down, he explained. The European Union has become the key buyer of Ukrainian grain instead of countries in need. The situation with Russian mineral fertilizer supplies is even more dramatic. Their exports dropped by 15% in 2022, while production costs in the EU rose sharply amid the energy crisis. In this case, the countries in need are the ones who suffer the most.

Meanwhile, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies Dmitry Rylko believes that the grain deal is likely to be extended. First, Russia needs to maintain friendly relations with its good partner, Turkey, which acts as a mediator in the deal. Second, the non-extension of the grain deal does not mean that the situation will become easier for Russian agricultural exports. In such a situation, cheap Ukrainian grain exports can be concentrated even more in Europe, driving the already declining prices further down, the expert noted.

 

Izvestia: US top diplomat set to embark on Central Asia tour

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan between February 28 and March 3. While in Astana, the US top diplomat plans to meet with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and hold a C5+1 meeting with the region’s foreign ministers, Izvestia writes.

Head of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Eduard Solovyov believes that "the US secretary of state has nothing new to offer." "However, there is no doubt that these countries will face political and moral pressure to take a tougher stance on sanctions against Moscow," the political scientist said.

Discussions of Central Asian nations’ strategic position on the Ukraine issue is unlikely to take place, expert in Central Asian security issues Rustam Burnashev pointed out. "The C5+1 is a platform for dialogue which focuses primarily on clarifying and comparing the positions of Central Asian countries and the United States on the issues that are pressing for them. They usually include developments related to Afghanistan and the situation in China. A dialogue about the attitude of Central Asian countries to the situation around Ukraine will probably take place but it is just a conversation, and thus cannot and will not lead to any decisions," the expert explained.

Senior Researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Stanislav Pritchin says that "Blinken is making the visit for a reason." "US diplomacy does not bother to hide its goal as its key mission is to drive Central Asian countries as far away from Russia as possible and cut the ties that bind them. The threat of secondary sanctions is, of course, the main tool here," the political scientist noted. However, in his view, it is absurd to say that the US will become a full-fledged replacement as an investor and trade partner for the countries of the region if they were to break off relations with Russia.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Currency crisis challenges Russian-Iranian projects

Iran’s national currency has been devalued by half in a little less than six months, forcing the country’s cabinet to look at developing stabilization measures. Experts point out that although the currency crisis is nothing new for Iran, it is raising the question of the future of joint projects with Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Western media outlets attributed the fall of the Iranian rial to the impact of sanctions and protests. Critics are convinced that the authorities don’t have a clear and well-thought-out plan to combat the currency crisis.

Meanwhile, Russian International Affairs Council expert Nikita Smagin notes that the escalation of the currency crisis is not something unprecedented for Iran. "Back in 2018, Iran’s currency lost more than half of its value in about three to four months amid Donald Trump’s announcement that the US was withdrawing from the nuclear deal and the pullout itself," the analyst said. "After the United States left the nuclear deal, Iran saw a steady decrease in the value of its currency," Smagin pointed out. "However, the currency situation should not be blown out of proportion. Rather, we should look at the fact that the economy as a whole is in crisis," he added.

"As for relations with Russia, the devaluation of the Iranian currency complicates trade and economic activities, primarily payments," Smagin stressed. "Although, of course, we can say that the problem has existed for a long time. For exactly this reason, the parties are trying to come up with new options for cooperation. Trade in national currencies is the main avenue here. Here, I mean primarily the Russian ruble as using the rial for trade is impossible because of its constant devaluation and concurrent exchange rates," the expert said. In addition, there is the idea of creating a stablecoin (a kind of cryptocurrency pegged to reference assets). All these are efforts to overcome the barriers created by currency volatility," Smagin concluded.

 

Media: How new sanctions will affect Russia’s banking sector

Western countries have recently expanded their blacklists, in particular, by imposing sanctions on a number of Russian banks. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta point out that the banking sector has already adapted to life under sanctions so the West’s new restrictions are unlikely to have a big impact. However, the blacklisted banks will likely lose the ability to make foreign currency payments and transfers.

Finam analyst Igor Dodonov does not rule out that the sanctioned banks will face difficulties using the currencies of friendly countries, too, because banks from third countries may start exercising increased caution due to the risk of secondary sanctions.

Credit institutions included in the EU’s list of sanctions will soon be cut off from the SWIFT system, which is under the jurisdiction of the European Union. Anderida Financial Group founder Alexey Tarapovsky expects this to happen in the next few days, Izvestia writes.

Russian banks that have not been blacklisted by the EU may also face problems when using SWIFT, head of financial institution ratings at ACRA Valery Piven said. According to him, organizations beyond US jurisdiction often abide by the toughest restrictions so banks sanctioned by the United States may also have difficulties with SWIFT transactions.

However, these restrictions will help accelerate efforts to create an independent payment system, Tarapovsky noted.

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