MOSCOW, February 22. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the suspension of the country’s participation in a key arms control treaty with the US, China’s top diplomat is on a visit to Moscow to discuss the Ukraine conflict and Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Russia, and the UN Security Council’s meeting is unlikely to lead to a public investigation into the Nord Stream explosions. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: What suspension of Russia’s participation in key treaty with US means

Russia is suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the United States, President Vladimir Putin announced in his State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly. According to him, Russia is not withdrawing from the treaty and is ready to resume participation if the nuclear potential of France and the UK is taken into account. However, Moscow may resume nuclear tests in case the US makes such a move, Vedomosti writes.

Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in New START may eventually lead to the treaty’s collapse, judging by similar suspensions in the past, Russian International Affairs Council expert Alexander Yermakov pointed out. The move could trigger a rise in mutual "nuclear fears" in countries with nuclear capabilities in a situation where there is no transparency.

The end of New START may deal a blow to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is at the core of non-proliferation policy. The so-called "threshold states," who are close to creating nuclear weapons, will now have additional excuses and reasons to continue developing such weapons, Yermakov noted.

Putin emphasized that the implementation of New START was being suspended but Russia could return to the treaty under new conditions, where the nuclear capabilities of France and the UK are taken into consideration, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine Fyodor Lukyanov noted. This means that the model of bilateral agreements on arms reduction, as it was developed in the 1960s-1970s, has now ceased to exist and there is no new model on the horizon and perhaps, there won’t be one.

Discussions of the status of NATO’s nuclear-weapons member states with regard to Russian-US strategic arms control are long overdue, said Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Still, NATO has been avoiding related topics in its statements on New START. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Engels air base, which involved at minimum US intelligence, run counter to the spirit of the New START treaty, just like many other current developments. However, the parties could have tried to resolve these contradictions within the treaty. The previous suspensions of treaties, namely the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, make it clear that it’s impossible to revive them afterwards, the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Biden visits Europe ahead of presidential campaign launch

US President Joe Biden delivered a speech on the Ukrainian crisis during his visit to Poland. The address came hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia pointed out that the US leader’s speech was full of cliches that had been repeated ad nauseam. Biden reiterated his support for Kiev and announced new sanctions against Moscow, while claiming that the Western bloc did not pose a threat to Russia.

First Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Vladimir Dzhabarov noted that the US president’s speech was rather "lackluster." Commenting on Biden’s assurances that the West did not seek to destroy Russia, the senator said that Moscow would never again fall for such lies.

According to Russian International Affairs Council Program Coordinator Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, Joe Biden’s speech turned out to be a formulaic statement that he just had to make in the wake of Putin’s address. As a result, the outcome of his speech, as well as of his February 20 trip to the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, was less impressive than expected. The expert also did not rule out that White House speechwriters had to make changes to the text following the Russian president’s address, adding more statements about support for Kiev.

Biden’s speech, as well as his trip to Poland and Ukraine taken as a whole, can actually be regarded as the start of his presidential campaign, President of the American University in Moscow Edward Lozansky emphasized. "Biden is losing popularity even with his own party members. In addition, the presidential race is about to begin, as two Republican candidates - former President Donald Trump and former US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley - have officially announced their intent to run and several others are gearing up to do the same," the expert explained. According to him, there are also members of the Democratic Party who want to throw their hat into the ring, but they have not announced this yet.

 

Media: Chinese top diplomat arrives in Moscow to discuss Ukraine conflict, Xi’s visit

The Chinese Foreign Ministry published the concept of its global security initiative on February 21. On the same day, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and member of the CCP Politburo Wang Yi, China’s highest-ranking diplomat, arrived on an official visit to Moscow, Vedomosti writes.

Upon his arrival in the Russian capital, Wang Yi met with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and said that deepening Russian-Chinese coordination on the international stage was becoming particularly important. On February 22, the Chinese diplomat will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In addition, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not rule out a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Wang Yi.

China’s peaceful initiative on Ukraine will be based on Xi Jinping’s basic foreign policy concept aimed at building a community of common destiny, which, among other things, calls for respecting the principle of indivisible security, Head of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Lomanov pointed out. However, it’s doubtful that this will help implement Beijing’s proposals in a situation where the parties to the conflict have absolutely no trust in each other. It can be assumed that difficulties will emerge in terms of arranging missions that could monitor a ceasefire and the lack of weapons supplies to Ukraine in case Moscow and Kiev agreed to that, Lomanov said.

Scientific Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia Alexander Lukin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "Russia could accept China’s plan, at least as far as talks go." "However, it is Ukraine that won’t agree to it. As for China’s support for Moscow, we don’t know for sure what’s going on there. The Americans are making a fuss about it but I don’t think that Moscow and Beijing will openly reach agreements. Even if there are any, they will be informal. The Chinese won’t benefit from ostentatiously worsening relations with the US," the analyst added.

Head of the School of Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics Andrey Karneyev noted that "discussions of the agenda of Xi’s upcoming visit to Russia" will be the focus of Wang Yi’s meetings in Moscow. "The parties may also discuss the peace plan but since China favors negotiations, it’s unlikely to suit Ukraine and the West. China doesn’t have much experience in mediation on resolving conflicts. I don’t think that it will take on such a role now either," the expert said.

 

Izvestia: UN unlikely to launch impartial investigation into Nord Stream explosions

The United Nations is unable to confirm or deny allegations related to the act of sabotage against the Nord Stream gas pipelines and is awaiting the results of national investigations, UN Under Secretary General Rosemary DiCarlo said at a UN Security Council meeting on the pipeline blasts on February 21. Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya, in turn, called for an independent investigation. Still, experts interviewed by Izvestia don’t believe that the meeting will lead to an impartial probe.

Predictably, the British envoy to the US said that Russia was trying to divert attention from real problems, meaning the situation in Ukraine. The US representative claimed that Moscow was using the UN platform to spread conspiracy theories. However, China’s envoy noted that Beijing supported the idea of stepping up investigative efforts.

Meanwhile, experts are convinced that the UN Security Council’s meeting will not lead to a public investigation. "We can see that some UN Security Council members showed a rather sluggish reaction to the issue. Even if there is a resolution, it will be blocked because the Biden administration vehemently denies its involvement. However, the most notable thing is that no one is accusing Russia of defamation. The information [about Washington’s involvement in the incident] is just being ignored or denied, and not at the highest level," Senior Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Kamkin said.

Valdai International Discussion Club Program Director Timofey Bordachev is confident that the practical importance of the meeting is that the issue will be discussed on the UN Security Council platform. "Russia can present its version of events, which seems to be the most plausible one as it is confirmed by independent investigations. However, the Americans and their satellites will block any resolution that Russia submits," he added.

According to Kamkin, it won’t be possible to repair the gas pipelines in the short term. "The Nord Stream 2 project involved quite a large number of European companies. Of course, it will be extremely difficult for Russia to do it alone, given the comprehensive pressure of sanctions. Cooperation with companies from Germany and some other countries is necessary. That said, the issue can be regarded as frozen for the foreseeable future," the expert noted.

 

Kommersant: Putin’s address livelies up Russian market

The Russian president’s State of the Nation Address was generally positively received by the Russian stock market. The Moscow Exchange index rose by more than 2% by the middle of the trading session on Tuesday but the announcement that Russia was suspending its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) toned down the market’s optimism. As a result, the overall growth of the market by the end of the day stood at 1.3%. Meanwhile, the European Union’s tenth package of sanctions, set to be introduced in the coming days, may also influence the situation, Kommersant writes.

Leading analyst at Otkritie Investment Andrey Kochetkov highlighted the president’s remarks about developments in the East and the financial system, as well as about initiatives for domestic businesses.

The news about the suspension of Russia’s participation in the New START treaty and announcements about the defense industry’s development made investors nervous. "This had an impact, and the excitement died down," Director of corporate and banking business at Tsifra Broker Alexander Tsyganov noted.

International investors seem to have expected the worst from Putin. An hour before the start of his address, the leading European stock indexes had dropped but after the speech began, they started to go up again. According to AriCapital investment strategist Sergey Suverov, Europe generally took the Russian president’s address "as hawkish towards the West, as evidenced by rather tough rhetoric, and in addition, Moscow suspended its participation in the New START treaty, triggering a negative reaction from investors." However, European markets calmed down slightly after EU officials made statements that they did not expect a recession in 2023.

Meanwhile, prospects are dim for continued growth on the Russian market. In the current geopolitical situation, "investors’ attention cannot be described as stable," Ingosstrakh Investment analyst Anna Mikhailova noted. All the more so since the EU’s tenth package of sanctions is expected to arrive by the end of the week. It will be possible to assess the damage to Russian companies and the economy in general only after the restrictions are made public, the analyst said.

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