MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. The EU agreed on its ninth round of anti-Russian sanctions, the United States blacklisted Vladimir Potanin, but spared the Russian tycoon’s largest assets. Meanwhile, a Turkish court‘s verdict against the Istanbul mayor may spark nationwide protests and cemented his position as Erdogan’s opponent. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: What topped EU summit’s agenda

The EU leaders’ summit, which was held in Brussels on December 15 was a one-day meeting, contrary to tradition, and yielded lukewarm results. On the one hand, the heads of state and government approved a package of initiatives, including €18 billion worth of loans for Ukraine. And around midnight Moscow time, media reports emerged saying that the EU agreed on its ninth package of anti-Russian sanctions, though initially, European politicians claimed they would not be able to succeed in that.

On the other hand, the bloc has not yet formulated its price ceiling for Russian natural gas - an issue Europe has long been discussing without any success. The EU leaders agreed to leave that to the energy ministers to decide, who will try again to do so on December 19.

The most serious disagreement over the bloc’s ninth package of sanctions against Russia was whether the EU should facilitate Russian fertilizer exports through European ports, even if fertilizer producers belong to sanctioned Russian businessmen. Addressing his colleagues at the early stages of the summit, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called on all member countries, especially Germany, France and the Netherlands, to intensify and extend the restrictions. He also reiterated the proposal to confiscate Russian property in the EU worth $350 billion. Last evening, information emerged that this question would be finalized by EU ambassadors.

First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs Vladimir Dzhabarov refused to comment on the latest restrictions, saying the ninth round would hardly be the last. "They have already made their sanctions into a cottage industry, yet there seem to be increasingly less sense in those," he told Izvestia, recalling that Russian banks have been operating effectively even without European institutions. To him, the EU’s attempts to put maximum pressure on Russia is a matter of principle. "They will dig themselves into a deeper hole with every new round of sanctions, because there is nothing left that could hurt us, while there is a lot that can hurt them," the senator concluded.

 

Kommersant: US slaps sanctions on Russian magnate Potanin, but Nornickel spared

The United States has imposed financial restrictions on Vladimir Potanin, his family and his Interros holding and the commercial bank Rosbank. American citizens will now be banned from doing any business with any of them. However, the Russian tycoon’s two largest assets were spared: Potanin owns a mere 35% stake in the TCS Group, while the US Treasury included a special clause on his Norilsk Nickel, since blacklisting the company could undermine the global market for non-ferrous metals.

Potanin was among the few Russian oligarchs who, until recently, escaped the West’s harshest sanctions. Any blocking sanctions against Potanin’s largest asset could have had major implications, for his Nornickel has a 17% share in the global market of high-grade nickel, 38% in palladium, 10% in platinum, 7% in rhodium and 2% in copper and cobalt, respectively.

The latest US sanctions will hardly affect nickel prices, Alfa-Bank’s Boris Krasnozhenov presumes. According to his estimate, next year, prices might hover around $25,000 to $30,000 per metric ton, given the spike in demand among stainless steel producers and battery manufacturers in China and the rest of the world. Lawyer Mergen Doraev believes that the exception the US made for Nornickel means that Washington would hate to excessively impact the nickel market.

Meanwhile, the sanctions against Potanin may intensify demands for him to step down as Rusal’s president. In late October, Rusal filed a lawsuit against Potanin in London accusing him of harming shareholders as a result of his leadership. The aluminum giant also demanded that Potanin should resign, insisting on an independent replacement. Delcredere’s lawyer Artyom Kasumyan argues that Nornickel could minimize risks by changing its corporate management structure, where sanctioned managers should play a lesser role.

 

Media: Court verdict against Istanbul mayor may trigger unrest in Turkey

On Thursday, an opposition rally in support of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was held in the city. The protests were one of Turkey’s largest in the past three years. Istanbul residents told Izvestia that they were ready to rally in support of the mayor until the court nixes its verdict sentencing Imamoglu to over two years in prison. The mayor was considered to be President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival in the next presidential election.

Yashar Niyazbayev, a blogger on Telegram, explained to Izvestia that the verdict had cemented Imamoglu’s positions, because until recently the opposition could not decide who to choose as its key candidate. "People in Turkey say that this was how Erdogan picked an opponent," the expert maintained. He also warned that the court ruling may spark legitimate protests nationwide, since numerous citizens are not happy with what is going on in the country.

Turkish society is still highly polarized in its attitudes toward the president. While Erdogan enjoys the support of religious people in rural towns and villages, residents of Istanbul and major cities are against him, according to Victor Nadein-Raevskiy, senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS. Erdogan is clearly getting rid of his key rivals - Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas - ahead of the elections, the expert said. As for Russian-Turkish relations, Moscow would not be interested in an opposition win. Erdogan’s political opponents have made it clear they will be pro-Western and pro-NATO and will not be seeking to strengthen ties with Russia, so Turkey may join the anti-Russian sanctions, if either of them wins, Nadein-Raevskiy concluded.

 

Izvestia: Does Kosovo have any chances of joining the EU?

On December 15, Kosovo formally submitted a request to join the European Union, however the partially recognized republic is unlikely to be admitted to the bloc any time soon, Thierry Mariani, a French member of the European Parliament warned.

In an interview with Izvestia, he said there were eight countries holding candidacy status, but none of them have made enough progress to join the EU as soon as possible. And since several EU members have not recognized Kosovo yet, discussing the region’s accession is getting increasingly sensitive, the lawmaker noted. However, he admitted that there is a strong lobby for Kosovo’s speedy accession in European institutions.

According to Oleg Bondarenko, editor-in-chief of Balkanist.ru, those EU countries who have yet to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty will not let Pristina become an EU member. These include Spain, Romania, Slovakia, Greece and Cyprus, and they will never recognize Kosovo, because otherwise Catalonia could claim it will leave Spain, while Romania’s Transylvania could fuel its aspiration to reunite with Hungary. "Therefore, the EU just cannot recognize Kosovo," the expert told Izvestia.

Amid the escalation, Serbian President Alexander Vucic announced that on Thursday, his government would ask KFOR to permit the deployment of up to 1,000 Serbian police officers and troops in Kosovo. However, NATO will turn down the request, Bondarenko believes. He expects a lull in northern Kosovo in the next month amid the Christmas holidays and a new round of escalation after mid-January. "Belgrade will do everything it can to avoid a military conflict, and Vucic will do his best to do so, too, because Serbia does not need a war," the expert concluded.

 

Vedomosti: How long will the ruble’s weakening last?

Since early December, the ruble has been falling against foreign currencies, and experts interviewed by Vedomosti say the trend resulted from the restrictions on Russian oil supplies, preparations for the ninth package of anti-Russian sanctions and an increase in budget expenditures at the end of the year. The weakening of the Russian currency may slow down in the next few days, analysts believe.

This year, the ruble has enjoyed practically unshakable support from a huge trade surplus, Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, told the newspaper. A drop in oil exports amid the sanctions and an increase in imports ahead of New Year’s should reduce the surplus. Sovcombank analyst Mikhail Vasilyev expects Russia’s export revenues to decrease more later this month, besides, exports may drop in the wake of the EU’s embargo on Russian oil and the ceiling on Russian crude prices, he warned.

Higher regional and federal budget expenditures which are traditional for the end of the year are yet another factor of pressure on the ruble for Bakhtin, while Vasilyev points to persisting geopolitical risks.

However, the ruble’s weakening has so far been moderate and has fitted into the forecasts of the market and the government (the 2023 budget has the dollar rate fixed at 68.3 rubles), Vasilyev said. So, a weaker ruble will have minimal consequences for inflation and will hardly affect the December decision on the key interest rate by the Central Bank, according to the expert.

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