Kommersant: Will the nuclear rubicon be crossed? Similarities between the Ukraine conflict and the Cuban Missile Crisis

Ahead of the anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis that reached its climax between October 16-28, 1962, the world is discussing a potential nuclear war again. This is because of the bitter confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine, being accompanied with hardline rhetoric, with each side commenting that for their audiences as a sign that the opponent is ready for a radical escalation. While the situation has so far resembled a confrontation in the information sphere, parallels are being drawn with the events of 60 years ago. And the parties are doing so while placing emphasis on completely different things.

US President Joe Biden recently said the world was facing the threat of a nuclear war for the first time in decades, as the White House occupant placed the blame on Russia. And the parallels he drew between the current developments and the Cuban Missile Crisis caught many in the Biden administration by surprise, CNN reported. Though both the White House and the Pentagon clarified that they could see no evidence that Russia was getting ready to use weapons of mass destruction, Biden’s comparison was later echoed by a number of influential Democrats.

Russian officials also say today’s troubles are similar to the 1962 crisis, but they insist that it is the United States and its European allies who are to blame. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told a diplomatic conference that the approaching 60th anniversary of the Caribbean crisis when the Soviet Union and the US almost crossed the rubicon directly resembled the current confrontation around Ukraine where the West is effectively waging a proxy war against Russia.

Alexey Arbatov, who heads the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Kommersant he could see two similarities - the threat of using nukes and the fight for spheres of influence. Back in 1962, the US sought to prevent the USSR from gaining partial control of the American sphere of influence, namely, Latin America. And yet the expert thinks there are much more differences between the two conflicts. First, the Soviet Union deployed its nukes in Cuba, and their number exceeded the original American calculations, while there are no nukes in Ukraine now, Arbatov pointed out.

Secondly, the acute phase of that crisis lasted 13 days during which one was killed - Rudolf Anderson, the pilot of an American U-2 reconnaissance flight downed over Cuba. "And this conflict has been going on for more than seven months, with tens of hundreds of deaths and colossal damage inflicted," Arbatov noted. Thirdly, in the 1960s, the US was superior to the Soviet Union in the nuclear sphere and could win a nuclear war, albeit with huge losses for everyone in Eurasia and, probably, for all of mankind. "The situation is different now, as everybody admits that there would be no winner in a new nuclear war," he warned. Fourth, there was no arms control in the early 1960s, while the launch of bilateral and multilateral treaties in this sphere was the outcome of the Caribbean crisis. "Today, despite the worst crisis in relations between Russia and the US, there is the START-3 treaty," Arbatov concluded.

 

Izvestia: US eyes swap for Griner and Whelan

The US is so disturbed over the fate of American basketball star Brittney Griner that her exchange could become one of the few pretexts for potential communication between the Russian and the US leaders. Biden said he could raise the issue at the coming G20 summit, despite his reluctance to meet with Vladimir Putin. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia that there was no decision yet on the format of the Russian president’s participation in the summit.

Meanwhile, Alexey Tarasov, the attorney for Viktor Bout, a Russian businessman who was sentenced to 25 years in prison and is viewed as the biggest illegal arms dealer currently in jail in America, said hopefully his client would be swapped before the end of 2022, because both sides were seeking to return their citizens and Russia and the US shared approaches on humanitarian issues. However, the general situation in bilateral ties has so far delayed the process, "otherwise the exchange could have taken place already," Tarasov said.

In late September, a senior official told Izvestia that Russia and the US had discussed a "two for two" prisoner swap. The dialogue was held between "competent authorities", and now Moscow is awaiting a response from the United States, he said. According to the official, there are Griner and Paul Whelan on the US list, while the Russian side has so far mentioned Bout only. The official refused to disclose the other Russian name. A former US diplomat, Bill Richardson, said the "two for two" exchange could take place this year, a likelihood confirmed by Tarasov, too.

Alexander Vinnik, who faces more than 50 years behind bars in the US, also hopes to return home, his lawyer Frederic Belot told Izvestia, adding that Vinnik’s inclusion in the swap list was currently being discussed. According to the lawyer, Vinnik is suffering from severe health problems, specifically, he has memory issues, his illnesses have gotten worse, and he is deeply depressed. Roman Seleznyov, the son of a Russian lawmaker, sentenced to 27 years behind bars, could also return to Russia from US imprisonment. However, Seleznyov’s lawyer, Igor Litvak, said nobody had suggested his client could get on the list. "We know nothing about that," Litvak said.

 

Izvestia: Russia ready to replace US as weapons supplier to Saudi Arabia

Moscow is ready to ramp up weapons supplies to the Persian Gulf instead of the United States and anticipates that regional players won't succumb to Washington’s pressure, Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Federation Council’s (upper house) foreign affairs committee, told Izvestia. "If the US continues to threaten Persian Gulf countries with disrupted weapons supplies, Russia could easily replace American suppliers in that market. Those countries are solvent and were able to see Russian weapons in combat action in Syria," the senator explained.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest arms importer and the largest buyer of Washington’s weapons. In 2015-2019, the kingdom accounted for a quarter of US arms exports. Dzhabarov also noted that US-supplied missile defense systems had performed poorly during attacks on Saudi territory by the Houthis from Yemen.

According to Andrey Baklanov, a former Russian ambassador to Saudi Arabia and vice chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, there is a systemic cooling in relations between Washington and Riyadh. However, there are more points of contact between the two sides than annoying aspects, he told Izvestia. Thus, Saudi Arabia depends heavily on the supplies of advanced technologies and arms, and over 80% of weapons in service with the Saudi Army are American made. Therefore, the Saudis need components. "This could be a lever of pressure on Riyadh. And yet the US will hardly abandon such a promising market, because Saudi Arabia buys 53% of weapons the US supplies to the region, and the country is the leading procurement center in the entire Middle East," Baklanov said.

To punish the Saudis for their role in the recent OPEC+ deal, the United States could also bring up the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi again or reconsider claims following the September 11 attacks - and hold Saudi Arabia responsible in both cases, Vyacheslav Matuzov, an expert in Asian studies, told Izvestia. "The US has effectively cut off any escape routes with statements in the press, and Saudi Arabia has found itself cornered. This forced Riyadh and other Persian Gulf players to look for alternatives and to bolster cooperation with Russia, in particular," the expert said. Besides, not a single Arab country has imposed any sanctions on Russia, Matuzov pointed out.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Chinese communists analyze mistakes of their Soviet predecessors

The plenum of the CPC Central Committee is now over in Beijing. As expected, it heard Secretary General Xi Jinping's draft report to the upcoming Congress, the report of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and changes to the Party's charter. The plenum also set its sights on combating separatism and foreign meddling in China’s domestic affairs and called for an accelerated modernization of the country’s defenses and armed forces amid international tensions. The fact that these two mentioned guidelines were included in the final communique shows that the congress, set to open on Sunday, would focus on the role of the army in protecting China from threats posed by the US and its allies.

While current and potential members of the Central Committee held their closed-door meetings, China’s Central Television kept informing the audience of Xi’s merits to the country. In a documentary, Xi said that a strong country should have a powerful army. Chinese political scientists say their leader has found links between his thesis and past events in the Soviet Union. Xi has reportedly strengthened the army and made sure it is absolutely loyal.

Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University Vasily Kashin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the Chinese leadership had been constantly analyzing the reasons behind the collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union since the demise of the USSR. They concluded that the Soviet communists had lost control of society and weakened their ideological efforts. The Chinese also found that the Soviet Communist Party had lost control of the Soviet army, while the Chinese clampdown against corruption in the country’s army was similar to the anti-corruption campaign nationwide. "Before Xi came to power, corruption in both the administration and the army had reached a level that raised questions over state control," he said.

"But during the military reform in 2015-2016, government control became centralized, and so was the control of army security services. This gives Xi more power to outline his military policy," Kashin believes.

However, the Chinese media have focused not only on the army, but also on preparations for the congress in general. The foreign media will reportedly be given as many opportunities as possible to cover the gathering. A news conference will be held at the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square before the historic event starts, and reporters will also be able to attend briefings at the hotel later on. Beijing is seeking to show foreign audiences a benign atmosphere at the congress.

 

Vedomosti: Turkey raked in $2.5 bln on exports of oil products distilled from Russian crude

According to the Russian Energy Ministry, Russian crude oil imports more than doubled in January-July practically to 5.6 million metric tons, while Russian oil and petroleum imports increased 55% to 8.94 million metric tons in the same period. Vedomosti has asked the Energy Ministry to comment on the data.

The rise in Russian oil imports has enabled Turkish oil refineries to boost the production of jet and marine fuels in the first seven months of 2022, according to Turkish statistics. Turkey sold the bulk of jet fuel to the United States. In January-July 2021, the US accounted for some 1.8% (24,000 metric tons) of Turkish jet fuel exports, and the share reached 47.2% (some 1.1 million metric tons) in the same period of 2022. Also, Turkey more than doubled its jet fuel supplies to Germany, and sold six times as much jet fuel to Great Britain in the first seven months of this year than a year ago.

According to Igor Yushkov, leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, Turkey had managed to increase the production and export of oil products thanks to purchases of cheap oil from Russia. Turkey, India and China have been buying Russian crude at a discount to refine it and send it to Europe, he explains. The short leverage in logistics enables Turkey to earn quite a lot, the expert noted. After the sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products are imposed, those supplies will dwindle, but not down to zero, Yushkov assured.

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