Izvestia: IAEA’s proposal to resolve Zaporozhye nuclear plant dilemma

The creation of a nuclear security zone around the Zaporozhye plant is needed, according to one of the key recommendations that the IAEA made public after its visit to the facility. Previously, Ukraine, supported by Western countries and the UN Secretariat, also proposed forming a demilitarized zone. Russia completely rejected this idea since, in its opinion, international control over the nuclear plant would mean practically giving the facility up to the Ukrainians and creating additional risks. That said, Russia notes that the IAEA’s recommendations are vague and general.

"The report by the IAEA group of experts is of a rather general and non-specific nature - the entire wording is very vague," Chairman of the Federation Council’s (upper house) Foreign Affairs Committee Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. He added that these conclusions shouldn’t be dismissed and should be discussed in greater detail both within the framework of the IAEA and the UN in order to prevent a catastrophe at the nuclear facility and ensure a restraint from the Ukrainians.

Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the International Security Center with the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, noted that Russia was against using the "demilitarized zone" wording and the IAEA report uses a different term. According to him, mutually acceptable options are possible. "For example, it is possible to perceive that a ‘security zone’ is some space where the so-called ‘incoming’ and ‘outcoming’ volleys of MLRS and artillery are unacceptable," he said, noting that the issue of Russian troops at the facility, which is cautiously criticized by the IAEA, remains.

That said, the expert community thinks that chances of agreeing on any demilitarization are low.

"Russia will interpret the IAEA report in such a way that the security zone would imply the Ukrainian side refusing to shell the territories adjacent to the facility, while using these proposals as an opportunity for international pressure on Kiev to make it show more restraint," Russian International Affairs Council Director General Andrey Kortunov told the newspaper. "Ukraine, in turn, will say that Russia is intentionally deploying its equipment near the Zaporozhye nuclear plant in order to hinder its actions directed against this equipment," he explained.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russians gear up for prolonged economic crisis

Amid improved official forecasts and optimistic statements by Russian officials, Bloomberg reported that the Russian government was allegedly deliberating over a negative scenario of a prolonged crisis. Russian ministers did not refute this report yet called it a "routine horror story." Experts do not quite agree with this interpretation since they think that both consumers and the professional community would benefit from seeing the objective picture of risks rather than hearing optimistic statements. According to surveys and the dynamics of consumption, the public is already preparing for a prolonged crisis and not for a temporary slump in the economy.

Until now, the situation in the Russian economy has unfolded noticeably better than initially forecasted, influenced by the anti-crisis measures from the government and the Central Bank, experts say. "However, the impact of sanctions and the departure of foreign companies from the Russian market is manifesting itself gradually while not all the introduced sanctions have come into effect yet," says Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam Olga Belenkaya. According to her, the sanctions and an embargo on Russian energy products raise the possibility of a reduced volume of oil export and production in Russia. She also thinks that next year may turn out to be even more difficult for the Russian economy than the current one.

"The Ministry of Economic Development is optimistic in its forecasts. In many ways, this even has some agit-prop characteristics. However, this sort of approach hardly convinces Russians - entrepreneurs and consumers - who are used to prepping for the worst and not for the best. This is precisely why people are opting for a belt-tightening scenario. The public perceives reality more like a prolonged and not a temporary deterioration, and are striving to prepare for it as much as they can," says TeleTrade Chief Analyst Mark Goykhman.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow blocks access to Kurils for former Japanese residents

Tokyo has issued a protest to Moscow over the cancellation of an agreement on easing the access to South Kurils for the Japanese. Earlier, the Russian government said that the 1991 accords on the mutual travel of the Japanese and Russian citizens and the 1999 agreements on eased access to these islands by the Japanese were invalidated. This was a tit-for-tat move to the recent sanctions introduced by Japan over the situation in Ukraine. The Japanese Foreign Ministry called Moscow’s decision unacceptable since Ukraine and relations between Russia and Japan are two different things.

Head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Oriental Studies Valery Kistanov in a conversation with the newspaper pointed to the underpinning of Tokyo’s sharp reaction. "At one time, Russia accommodated Japan, unilaterally simplifying the rules for visiting these islands. The Japanese viewed this as a step towards getting them back. Now this step has been annulled. Certainly, this is making the prospects of getting these islands back even hazier. There is also the humanitarian aspect. Several thousand people over 80 years of age who used to live there want to visit the graves of their ancestors. This is being perceived emotionally in the country and it is triggering a reaction," he said.

Replying to a question on whether it was reasonable for Moscow to exacerbate its relations with Tokyo while the collective West was trying to isolate Russia, the expert said: "In this matter, Japan became one of the leaders of the Group of Seven. And in Asia, it became an initiator among those forces that are punishing Russia for the military operation. Against the background of this policy, Russia’s decision is a palpable move but an understandable one. And, of course, in the current environment, it makes no sense to continue talks on concluding a peace treaty. Moscow froze them back in March."

 

Vedomosti: How much would the UK need to fight the energy crisis?

New British Prime Minister Liz Truss intends to freeze energy and gas prices for households at the current level, Bloomberg reported on September 6. According to the report, she wants to keep the upper spending limits of a typical household at the level of 1,971 pounds ($2,300) per year.

Truss is doing what British society expects from her, says senior researcher of the Sector of International Organizations and Global Political Regulation at IMEMO Yelena Kharitonova. It is logical that her first measures in office are tackling the most critical problem for the population, namely, soaring energy prices.

Various support measures amid the energy crisis have already been implemented in continental Europe, for example, in Germany, says researcher at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO Artem Sokolov. The German government has already trotted out an aid package to the tune of 65 bln euros. According to the expert, it includes payments to various vulnerable categories of residents, including retirees, students and families with children. These measures can be expanded as the energy crisis in Germany exacerbates. In general, the support measures will be used at the level of national legislation depending on the situation in each individual EU country, the expert said.

According to the UK program of subsidizing energy prices both for the public and industry, the British government might need to borrow up to 170 bln pounds, says Andrey Kochetkov, a leading global research analyst at Otkritie Investment. Under the current market circumstances, it will be difficult to accomplish. The expert thinks that the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of the European Central Bank, by buying state bonds while raising the rate.

 

Izvestia: Experts weigh risks of Russians moving their savings abroad

Despite sanctions and the aggravated international environment, Russians, mostly the affluent ones, are trying to move their savings outside of Russia. During the first six months of this year, a record amount of over one trillion rubles has been transferred to foreign accounts. In the first quarter, Russian residents used their savings to fill their foreign "piggy banks." In the second quarter, they actively bought foreign currency and also set a record, purchasing 439 bln rubles ($7 bln) worth of foreign currency, according to the Central Bank’s data.

According to Andrey Stolyarov of the Higher School of Economics, this activity is related to the relaxation of restrictions on one hand, and on the other, with the toxicity of dollars and euros on the Russian market. The commentator reiterated that many banks and brokers introduced a surcharge for servicing accounts in foreign currency.

According to Bogdan Zvarich of banki.ru, the general expectations of a weakening ruble have also played their part. However, the expert thinks that risks remain that the accounts and assets may be blocked in unfriendly countries while they are not as high in friendly ones.

Valery Piven of ACRA thinks that the situation with keeping the money in foreign banks is constantly changing. "Overall, the circle of countries that are ready to introduce sanctions has been defined. However, one cannot be certain that the banks of countries that are not among unfriendly ones, fearing secondary sanctions, won’t make the service conditions worse," the expert cautioned.

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