Kommersant: West readying Kiev for protracted conflict and lengthy talks with Moscow

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg did not rule out in an interview with Germany’s Bild am Sonntag newspaper that the current conflict with Russia might last for years, and named weapons supplies to Kiev as a priority. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who recently visited the Ukrainian capital, called on allies to brace for a years-long conflict in Ukraine. Hardline statements, however, are accompanied by efforts to find ways to resume talks with Moscow, Kommersant notes.

"NATO is in fact fully engaged in the conflict as it is actually completely responsible for providing funds, weapons and supplies to the Ukrainian army and government, training the Ukrainian armed forces and contributing intelligence support to them. Moreover, thousands of Western citizens are fighting in Ukraine," Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin pointed out.

"It has been said recently that Russia gambled on a blitzkrieg, though this is a bit of an exaggeration. Still, judging by the numerous statements made by Western politicians, NATO also expected that the economic and political situation in Russia would quickly worsen, military stocks would dry up and consequently, the country would be defeated in the first weeks of the conflict. However, the conflict has eventually dragged on, turning out to be highly costly for its participants," Kashin noted.

According to him, NATO has no other option but to continue arming Ukraine because without weapons supplies, Ukrainian defenses would have collapsed long ago and the West would have suffered a humiliating defeat. On the other hand, there can also be talk about a peace agreement though the resumption of talks won’t necessarily create conditions for signing a peace accord, the expert stressed.

 

Izvestia: Washington seeks to bring Taliban and their opponents to negotiating table

The United States would like to once again be able to play an important role in resolving the situation in Afghanistan. Washington plans to host a meeting that would bring the Taliban and their opponents to the negotiating table in an attempt to create an inclusive government, Izvestia writes.

An effort to get the parties to negotiate would be crucial for the US in terms of domestic politics. The country is set to hold its mid-term congressional election in November and public opinion polls show that most Americans are dissatisfied with the way President Biden is handling his job.

However, Alexey Davydov, a researcher with the Center for North American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, points out that the US should not be expected to engage in Afghanistan’s issues at the same level as before. "Since the Cold War, the United States has been pursuing tactics aimed at balancing interests in South Asia. In particular, it cooperates with both Pakistan and India, which irks New Delhi. It is important for the US to maintain a partnership with these countries to be able to influence the situation in Afghanistan and South Asia," the expert explained.

Dadydov emphasized that talk about creating an inclusive government in Afghanistan had been going on for quite a while. "No serious steps to achieve that goal were made in the past, when the US had significant influence on Kabul’s authorities. The thing to remember is that all the humanitarian issues that are facing Afghanistan will first and foremost spill over into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which particularly involves Washington’s two main opponents, China and Russia. The Americans aren’t interested in improving the situation, at least judging by their strategic documents," the analyst stressed.

 

Izvestia: SPIEF focuses on currency issues and payment initiatives

The Russian currency’s exchange rate, dedollarization efforts and new payment tools amid sanctions were the focus of attention at the financial sessions of the 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). Officials from financial regulators opposed fees for the maintenance of foreign currency accounts but did not rule out that negative interest rates on foreign currency accounts might be introduced in the future to encourage Russias to abandon the dollar, Izvestia writes.

The ruble’s exchange rate was one of the main topics of discussion, as the Russian currency had hit multi-year highs in June 2022. Currency fluctuations made banks introduce fees for maintaining individual foreign currency accounts. The move was aimed at reducing the role of foreign currency in the resource base of banks, Associate Professor with the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Denis Domashchenko noted. "Since there are high risks of sanctions, the foreign currency assets of banks may be frozen abroad. However, banks will still have foreign currency liabilities to individuals, so they will face a gap in their balance sheets. Consequently, banks will not be able to comply with their foreign currency obligations," Domashchenko explained.

Another issue that was brought up at SPIEF-2022 was that one of the goals that banks need to achieve amid the sanctions is to ensure uninterrupted domestic and international transactions. Cryptocurrencies may be an alternative. However, crypto payment volatility is very high, Head of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting Alexander Shirov emphasized. Another drawback of cryptocurrencies is that they are not controlled by the monetary authorities who need to recognize such payments.

Meanwhile, First Deputy Governor of Russia’s Central Bank Olga Skorobogatova pointed out that Russia had been able to launch several national payment options, including the SPFS financial messaging system (an equivalent of SWIFT), a national payment card system and a rapid payment system.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Americans don’t want next presidential elections to be like 2020

US President Joe Biden may officially announce plans to run in the 2024 election in a few months, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, citing the US media. Donald Trump also intends to seek re-election. Both are ready to throw their hats into the ring for the presidency regardless of the fact that judging by a recent poll, the American people don’t want either of them to lead the country.

According to a poll conducted by YouGov on June 10-13, 64% of respondents believe that Biden should not run in the election, while 21% think that he should. If it’s any consolation to Biden, the Americans don’t want Trump as president either, as 55% say that he should not run for president again and 31% believe otherwise.

However, it’s not only Trump that worries Democrats, Director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies at Moscow State University Yury Rogulev emphasized. "Biden was called to run for office not because of Trump, but because of concerns that a candidate representing the left wing might win, which is led by Bernie Sanders, a charismatic and brilliant politician," the expert explained.

According to Rogulev, the Democratic Party hardly expects Biden to be re-elected and his old age is not the only reason. However, there will, perhaps, simply be no alternative to the incumbent president because the situation is complicated within the Democratic Party’s ranks. "Their voters are less united than those of the Republicans. Up to half of Democrats in the House of Representatives belong to the left wing, and there are energetic politicians among them," the analyst noted. "As for the moderate wing that Biden represents, it’s short of notable figures. Even at the level of governors, the Democrats are less active than the Republicans," the expert added.

 

Kommersant: Rising interest rates send cryptocurrencies crashing

Leading cryptocurrencies plummeted to 18-month lows over the weekend, with Bitcoin hitting the $17,600 mark. Analysts aren’t very optimistic in their forecasts, saying that a bullish trend is unlikely until late 2023, Kommersant writes.

The ongoing crypto market plunge stems from the US Federal Reserve’s tightening of its monetary policy, experts point out. Last week, the regulator raised the basic interest rate by 0.75 percentage points to 1.5-1.75%, the largest hike since 1994. "After the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric and made an attempt to combat inflation by a tough landing of the economy in order to slow demand down and reduce prices, cryptocurrencies were the first to crash," InDeFi Smart Bank Executive Director Sergey Mendeleyev noted.

The collapse of the Luna Coin in early May triggered a deeper decline of Bitcoin than might have been, causing cascading liquidations on crypto lending platforms, ENCRY Foundation co-founder Roman Nekrasov added.

Market participants expect the dive to continue in the coming month. Nekrasov believes that Bitcoin may drop to $16,000 and Ether to $800. According to Green Crypto Processing in Russia and Eastern Europe Ivona Gutovich, if anyone was doubtful that "Bitcoin is the perfect tool to protect savings from the Federal Reserve’s ‘crazy printer’," then there should be no doubt left now.

That said, experts don’t expect another bullish trend to emerge until 2023, more likely, towards the end of the year.

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