Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Biden’s Europe tour may bring up NATO intervention in Russia-Ukraine conflict

US President Joe Biden is heading off to Europe, where he will discuss, among other things, sanctions against Russia. The European Union halted imposing additional sanctions against Russia in order to await the outcome of negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken advocated for additional measures. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, this could signal that the White House does not expect the special operation to conclude quickly and is determined that NATO should intervene in the crisis in some way.

The possibility of new restrictions contradicts the outcome of the EU foreign and defense ministers' meeting on Monday. There, a decision was taken to put off the sanctions. The explanation is obvious, according to the newspaper: the Ukrainian-Russian talks are ongoing, and the upbeat predictions in this regard do not appear to be incorrect. The dialogue is challenging, according to both the Ukrainian and Russian parties. However, neither Kiev nor Moscow announced a deadlock in the negotiation process.

Meanwhile, Biden has openly warned that Russia may escalate the situation, stressing that Moscow may embark on using cyberattacks against US companies or even chemical weapons in Ukraine.

Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Vasiliev told the newspaper that Biden is coming to Europe not to discuss tougher sanctions or extending them to Russia's most sensitive energy sector. According to the expert, Biden wishes to explore NATO’s potential engagement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "It is improbable that the American president will travel to Europe to forge alliances and discuss energy." This might be done remotely by video calls. But, if we're talking about military involvement, Biden's participation is absolutely required," the analyst argues.

According to the expert, such a move for the US president would be sensible in terms of his electoral prospects in the US. Biden is now being chastised not only for allowing the Russian operation to happen, but also for the approach he chose: supporting Ukraine only with sanctions.

 

Izvestia: Turkey says it will not give up Russia’s missile systems under US pressure

Turkey is not discussing abandoning Russia’s S-400 missile systems under pressure from the US or NATO, Turkey’s President of Defense Industries Ismail Demir told Izvestia. He clarified that Turkey itself is able to determine its own path. Russia’s State Duma sees no reason for Turkey to agree to Washington’s proposal and transfer the S-400 system to Ukraine, since it needs them itself. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe Ankara will maintain its relative neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict and would not renounce military-technical cooperation with Russia.

According to the Turkish official, Ankara's position is not being debated, and the possibility of ending cooperation with Russia is not even being considered. He stated that Turkey's position is to ensure peace and put an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

"I don't understand why Turkey should give up our S-400s and hand them over to Ukraine." Why should they do this? These systems work for them, they are reliable, and outperform the Patriot [system]. "I do not believe Turkey will follow America's lead," State Duma deputy Alexey Chepa told Izvestia.

Previously, the Pentagon revealed that the US is negotiating with Ankara to transfer its S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Kiev in exchange for Turkey's readmission to the US F-35 fighter production program and the removal of sanctions against Ankara.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev ready to discuss Crimea and Donbass with Russia

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that he was ready to discuss Crimea and the Donbass republics after receiving security guarantees. These issues, according to Mikhail Podolyak, a member of Kiev’s delegation, can be resolved at a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. Although, at this point in the Russian military operation, providing security assurances is only feasible if Kiev meets the requirements put forward by Moscow, experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Zelensky said that the situation was very problematic. According to him, the first step toward finding a solution should be security assurances and an end to the conflict. He intends to discuss these concerns during his first meeting with Russia's president.

Leading expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Oleg Nemensky told the newspaper that by speaking about security guarantees, Kiev is actually trying to latch on to the tail end of an already missed opportunity. Furthermore, Western partners have already shown that they intend to continue supplying weapons to the Ukrainians, but will not act as guarantors of its security. Russia, at the current stage of the military operation, can discuss security guarantees, if its requirements are met, the expert added.

Under the given conditions, he suggested, further statements by the Ukrainian president are likely to be expected, designed to confirm his rhetorical readiness for concessions while setting conditions that make it impossible to reach a compromise. Such proposals include, for example, the idea voiced by Zelensky to hold a referendum. Although organizing this type of a vote only in a war-torn area of the country with a disoriented population could be pointless, the expert added.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Why Russia dropped peace treaty negotiations with Japan

Tokyo reacted predictably negatively to Moscow's statement about its unwillingness to conduct further dialogue on a peace treaty. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, new sanctions from Tokyo in response to Moscow's current move are unlikely. Japan has already imposed a slew of restrictive measures, and cutting off energy cooperation with Russia would be extremely unprofitable for them.

In part, Moscow's refusal to negotiate a peace treaty with Japan, which has not been concluded since the end of World War II, can be considered a symbolic gesture. "Negotiations on a peace treaty and a solution to the territorial issue in 2019 showed that the positions of the parties differ greatly and it is impossible to reach an agreement. What’s more, following the departure of Shinzo Abe, there were actually no serious negotiations and there were no real prospects for concluding a peace treaty or resolving the territorial issue," Anna Kireeva, an expert at the Center for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects at MGIMO, told Izvestia.

Meanwhile, despite the harshness of Japan's response to Russia’s operations in Ukraine, the country did not cut back on energy cooperation. "The Sakhalin-2 project is crucial for Japan's energy security since it allows the country to diversify its hydrocarbon import sources. It accounts for 9% of LNG imports," she explained.

"Over the past six years, everything has remained at the level of negotiations. So, there is nothing to abandon here," Head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Kistanov told the newspaper.

According to him, Japan is fully reliant on energy imports, and Russia appears to have a sizable portion of this export.

 

Vedomosti: Europe’s steel prices hit new high amid sanctions against Russia

Steel prices in Europe reached a new high against the backdrop of limited supplies from Russian metal companies. As a result, the price of May futures for hot-rolled steel supply on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit $1,625 per tonne on March 22. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, the key reasons for the price hike were the sanctions against Russia and disruptions in delivery from Ukraine. Therefore, replacing Russia's exports is bound to be tough.

Steel prices in Europe are also rising due to greater manufacturing costs, Director of Metals & Mining Research at Renaissance Capital Boris Sinitsyn told the newspaper. Although sanctions against Russia’s metal sector are the main reason, Managing Director of the metals sector at Otkritie Research Daniil Karimov noted. The main competitive advantage of Russian rolled metal has been its low cost, he added. It can only be replaced by more expensive products from alternative sources or by boosting manufacturing within the EU, the expert believes.

The high cost of energy in the EU will be one of the main factors behind the slow decline in steel prices, Karimov said. A ban on the import of semi-finished steel products from Russia (around 5 mln tonnes in 2021) may lead to a further increase in prices. In this case, according to the expert’s estimates, the price of rolled steel could rise to $2,000 per tonne. But even under a more optimistic scenario, he believes prices will remain high until 2023.

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