Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US, Europe running out of sanctions ammunition

European leaders promise to increase sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. Washington says that depending on the development of the crisis, the sanctions may be tightened or eased. Meanwhile, the Russian government will soon present a plan to support the Russian economy. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the Western sanctions may have run out of steam.

EU countries intend to start an all-out economic war against the Russian Federation, French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Tuesday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Russia will face new sanctions over the developments in Ukraine. The UK maintains options for tightening sanctions against Sberbank, according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Some countries are even ready to "shoot themselves in the foot" by limiting cooperation with Russia in the field of energy supplies, the newspaper writes. Although the US and the EU are still afraid of such measures, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau plans to ban imports of crude oil from Russia.

"The sanctions war has its own logic, it implies the need to increase the severity of the imposed restrictions. However, after the blocking of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, the West has only one last step left, this is an embargo on the supply of Russian energy resources," senior analyst at Esperio Anton Bykov told the newspaper.

But the West is generally not yet ready for such measures against Russia, the expert believes. "Ukraine, of course, is important, but neither European countries nor the United States is ready to risk their own macroeconomic stability for its sake," he said. "With caution, we can state that the West has exhausted their main sanctions by dropping the ‘nuclear’ package of sanctions currently available against the Russian economy," Bykov believes.

At the same time, Artem Tuzov, executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital, told the newspaper he believes that the potential of sanctions will "never be exhausted". "The world is heading towards a new Cold War era. The pressure on Russia will be endless," he said adding that the power bloc in Asia, led by China, could restrain the confrontation.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Nuclear war between Russia and the West unlikely

US President Joe Biden told reporters they should not worry about the threat of a nuclear strike. Meanwhile, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that Tokyo should consider deploying US nuclear weapons given the current situation. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the level of confrontation between Russia and the West has not yet reached a point where one could talk about the threat of deploying new nuclear weapons near the borders of the Russian Federation, especially strategic weapons.

Abe's reckless remarks angered China more than Russia, the newspaper writes. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the statements violate the three non-nuclear principles and worsen the situation around Taiwan.

The dean of the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University Andrey Sidorov told the newspaper that the current world leaders still understand that the prospect of nuclear war and even just a direct military clash between Russia and the West does not suit anyone. Moreover, it is impossible to fully calculate the consequences of nuclear strikes for humanity: fortunately, the relevant experience was minimal.

"The fact is that China is able to consolidate Asia, so it is more dangerous for the US. And it is important for the White House to maintain advantages in economic relations, the financial sphere, and logistics. It was the trade representatives who were the first to talk about the need to restrain Chinese capital back in the 2000s," says Sidorov.

Meanwhile, although Beijing's fears about the possible deployment of nuclear warheads in Japan are understandable, China still has no serious grounds for concern, the expert believes.

 

Vedomosti: EU favors Ukraine’s application to join its ranks

On the evening of March 1, the European Parliament supported a resolution granting Ukraine the status of a candidate country for joining the European Union. The Kremlin reacted calmly to this decision, Vedomosti writes. Russia does not consider the European Union a military-political bloc and therefore does not consider Ukraine's application for EU membership as a matter of its strategic security.

Fast-tracking Ukraine’s admission to the European Union is unlikely, Alexander Yermakov, a military expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, told the newspaper. The rapid acceptance of Ukraine is unlikely to affect the course of Russia’s operation. But even if it happens, Brussels would not provide Ukraine with real military assistance. The expert highlighted the fact that the functionality of the EU joint defense institutions is in its infancy. European states decide on defense policy issues through NATO, and this is reflected in the opinion of the Kremlin, which does not consider the European Union a defense bloc, Yermakov concluded.

The decision to admit Ukraine to the EU will be taken collectively and, rather, Germany's positive attitude towards this initiative should not be taken as a bid for success, expert Alexander Kamkin noted. According to him, the procedure for approval and obtaining the status of a candidate for Ukraine may take from three to six months. It would be in the interests of Ukraine to buy time, replicating the negotiation process with Russia, Kamkin added.

 

Kommersant: Russia suspended from world trade in goods

Container lines serving more than a third of the world market suspended activities with Russia. The suspension of bookings, in particular, was officially announced by Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, and CMA CGM. According to analysts interviewed by Kommersant, the departure of such large and deeply integrated players in Russian logistics was unexpected, everyone hoped that players in competitive markets would try to maintain their positions for as long as possible under the conditions of sanctions. Maersk's decision could disrupt all supply chains in which the company is involved.

Thus, the world's three leading container lines with a combined global market share of 46.9% left the Russian market. China’s COSCO, also one of the top five market players, has so far suspended communication only with Ukraine.

"The analytical community did not expect that large players in highly competitive markets, deeply integrated into operations in the country, would leave," N.Trans Lab founder Maria Nikitina told Kommersant. "It was assumed that in the event of sanctions, those who are directly targeted by these sanctions, or participants in monopoly markets, will leave, while market players will try to linger where competition is high so as not to lose their positions. However, it happened," she added.

"One of the most difficult problems for businesses currently is the increase in the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia to 20%. With a loan portfolio of tens of billions of rubles, the growth in annual payments will amount to billions of rubles, which, with a drop in revenue from supply chain break-ups, suspended foreign trade operations, sanctions, falling domestic demand, and aggravated infrastructure problems, will be critical for many companies, even large ones," one of the market participants told the newspaper.

 

Vedomosti: Turkey closes straits to warships, civilian shipping not affected

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on February 28 that, in accordance with the Montreux Convention that regulates maritime traffic through the Black Sea, Turkey warned all countries that it would not allow warships from non-Black Sea powers to enter the Black Sea in connection with the situation in Ukraine. Experts told Vedomosti that cargo ships departing from and to Russian Black Sea ports will not be affected by Turkey’s decision.

Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Amur Gadzhiev believes that Turkey's decision is logical, given that the country is a member of NATO, a partner of the European Union and a number of individual European states.

The closure of the straits by Turkey will affect the dynamics of Russia’s operation in Ukraine: Russia has a rather powerful group of ships in the Black Sea, and the Ukrainian Navy is virtually destroyed, said Alexey Kupriyanov, a senior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, speaking to the newspaper. So, the entry into force of the provisions of the Montreux Convention at this stage is rather a formal step from Ankara.

Meanwhile, maritime cargoes departing from and to Russian Black Sea ports will not be affected by the decision. According to Kupriyanov, the provisions of the Montreux Convention on closing the straits do not apply to civilian merchant ships. However, Turkey could slow down the passage of civilian ships, the expert said, noting whether they would want it is a big question.

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