Izvestia: Looming EU sanctions against Russia may impact embassies and arms exports

Sanctions against Russia in the event of an ‘invasion’ of Ukraine may have an impact on the operation of Russian diplomatic missions as well as raw material and arms shipments. The US State Department told Izvestia that nothing is off the table. The West is still keeping the sanctions against Moscow a secret in order to make preparations more difficult. According to an Izvestia source in the European Parliament, the restrictions will target Russia's primary economic sectors: energy, electronics, and the chemical industry.

The German tabloid Bild has reported that the West aims to impede Russian raw material supplies, reduce Russian armament sales, and possibly restrict the work of Russian diplomatic missions. According to the US State Department, no steps can be ruled out. Washington’s foreign policy agency stated that it is continuing to work closely with European allies to impose serious consequences on Russia if it invades Ukraine.

A source in the European Parliament told the newspaper that EU countries have yet to reach a full consensus on additional anti-Russian sanctions. "Western and Southern Europe, Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, and Denmark support sanctions against Russia in the event of a military escalation of the current crisis in Ukraine. However, Germany, Austria, and a number of countries in Eastern and Central Europe are more ambiguous," the source said.

According to the source, for example, Germany is dependent on energy supplies from Russia and is now facing a serious crisis in electricity prices. According to the European Parliament representative, the much-talked-about EU sanctions will target the Russian energy and financial sectors, which are important for the Russian economy. The measures will "almost certainly" affect the defense and chemical sectors, as well as electronics.

"The West is deliberately escalating the situation both regarding Ukraine and our relations. They don't want to respond to our calls about security. They are trying to provoke a conflict and impose sanctions at any cost. But they are wrong. The sanctions will not have the effect they expect. Over the years, Russia has already learned how to overcome these restrictive measures," First Deputy Chair of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs Vladimir Dzhabarov told the newspaper.

 

Vedomosti: Russia could head towards de-escalation around Ukraine following Putin’s meeting with ministers

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on February 14 to discuss the tense international situation. The talks were held on the eve of Russia's so-called "invasion" of Ukraine, which was relentlessly peddled by the Western media. According to Vedomosti, Moscow continues to rely on the negotiation process with the West rather than confrontation, because it does not consider the options for dialogue exhausted.

Lavrov informed Putin that he believes it is critical to continue security negotiations in Europe. Furthermore, when the president asked Lavrov if Russia has a chance to come to an agreement with the US and NATO "on key matters," or if it was just an attempt to drag Russia "into an interminable negotiation process," Lavrov told him there is always such chance.

Lavrov and Putin's statements should be taken as a signal to the West that it is engaged in unnecessary panic, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine Fyodor Lukyanov told the newspaper. This way, Moscow expresses its desire to continue the talks, which "may be interpreted as the start of de-escalation."

After that, Shoigu reported about the situation with the exercises that caused concern in Western countries, and, judging by his words, part of the maneuvers will soon be completed, Vedomosti writes. According to a source close to the Ministry of Defense, it is obvious that this includes the exercises in Belarus, which officially end on February 20.

The statements by Shoigu and Lavrov can be interpreted as a reluctance to continue down the path of escalation, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov told the newspaper. De-escalation will be more certain when Russia formally responds to Western concerns about security guarantees, but what Shoigu and Lavrov said is a "positive signal," he said.

 

Izvestia: OSCE incapable of solving Ukrainian crisis

On February 15, at Kiev’s request, consultations will be held on the movement of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border with the countries within the framework of the Vienna Document. A source familiar with the situation told Izvestia that public demand for such a meeting and similar consultations with Minsk on Russian-Belarusian exercises indicate that Western countries have begun to use the OSCE for propaganda purposes. Russian representatives have repeatedly said that this organization has not produced any real benefit for its members for a long time.

According to a Russian source familiar with the situation, the move looks like a "propaganda campaign". "First, a meeting on Belarus, then on Russia - all this is done in order to escalate the situation," the source said.

"The spring of 2021 was the last time such meetings were held. There were two of them, Russia was present at one of them," Oleg Shakirov, a consultant of the PIR Center and a senior expert of the Center for Advanced Governance (CAG), told Izvestia. "The mechanism is quite technical, and if countries have any concerns, they can use it. There is also an information aspect here: these requests are transmitted over the OSCE’s communication network - they do not have to be public, and if they are made public, then this is a conscious step that can be interpreted as a tool in a political game," he added.

The negotiations are not expected to bring any real breakthrough solutions, the expert concluded. At the same time, the OSCE press service told Izvestia that the organization is always ready to maintain a dialogue on the situation in the region and has tools and mechanisms that provide a vital platform for dialogue and cooperation, the press service added.

 

Vedomosti: Russia’s commercial space launches withstanding sanctions

Russian space corporation Roscosmos managed to save one of the leading enterprises in the industry, the Khrunichev Center, from bankruptcy and, in general, reduce the credit burden. However, First Deputy General Director of the state corporation Maxim Ovchinnikov said in an interview with Vedomosti that sanctions threaten the most profitable part of the business, namely commercial launches.

Talking about the competitiveness of the Russian launch services for international customers, Ovchinnikov noted that these restrictive measures have a significant impact. "Unfortunately, now it is impossible to beat the competition with only low prices. Our partners will continue to impose sanctions, even against launch services. Under such conditions, it is generally impossible to compete. Nevertheless, we try to offer all our partners the most affordable price. Over the past three years, rather serious work has been done in this direction on pricing for foreign markets," he said.

Nevertheless, Ovchinnikov looks to the future with optimism. Despite all the difficulties, the space industry has been basically fulfilling its goals and has been evolving. "The financial and economic state of the industry’s enterprises over the last two years can be called stable. The industry continues to consistently overcome the crisis through structural reforms, technical upgrading, and optimizing management and production processes," he said.

"In 2021, we carried out 10 commercial launches from the Baikonur and Vostochny cosmodromes and from the Guiana Space Center. In 2022, we also plan to carry out about 10 launches in the interests of foreign partners. Since 2020, the pandemic has had a significant impact on launch activities," he noted.

"We are trying to work on new contracts with all key international clients, including OneWeb, and other operators that are actively involved in the launch of multi-satellite constellations. We are not giving up and we will fight for our customers, providing them with the most comfortable conditions," Ovchinnikov concluded.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia enters into fierce competition with non-commodity exporters

Russia has found itself in a challenging situation in foreign markets as a result of the energy transition and sanctions. It must compete not only as far as price and quality go, but also in regards to environmental and political costs. As a result, according to experts, interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, gas risks are becoming a niche product in the decade ahead. According to the newspaper, Russia needs to diversify its exports and brace for competition from high-tech suppliers.

The Nord Stream 2 project has shown that hydrocarbon raw resources are no longer an unquestionable advantage. According to the newspaper, Russia must develop numerous export directions in order to maintain a presence on foreign markets and be able to offer goods and services that would be in demand in any political situation or whatever predicament that may arise.

Boris Bokarev, an expert at EnergyNet infrastructure center, predicts that in the next decade, the key advantage of gas - the ability to provide energy systems with the flexibility to regulate the balance of supply and demand - will be lost to renewable energy sources, and gas will remain a niche product. Non-commodity exports are also problematic, even arms shipments do not make Russia an absolutely vital supplier.

The restrictive measures also have a negative impact, "both through a ban on the import of Russian products into other countries and through restrictions on the supply of components Russia requires," Director of the Institute of International Economics and Finance at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy Alexander Knobel believes. The latter, he noted, affects not just high-tech exports but also raw materials.

Professional equipment, instruments for physical and chemical analysis, agricultural machinery, and even passenger cars, according to Knobel, are the most high-tech products with the potential to enhance exports.

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