Kommersant: Russian, US experts weigh in on how to prevent war

Two well-known experts from Russia and the US, Alexander Dynkin, President of the Russian Institute of the World Economy and International Relations IMEMO, and Thomas Graham, former senior director for Russia on the National Security Council during the Bush Jr. administration, worked out a plan that, in their opinion, will help find a compromise between Russia’s ultimatum to close NATO’s doors to post-Soviet countries and Washington’s resolute refusal to take on such obligations. They shared their ideas in an article submitted to Kommersant.

War is at Europe’s doorstep. The United States and its allies are convinced that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine and are threatening it with "disastrous" sanctions if it does so. Moscow completely denies the existence of such plans, asserting that Kiev is gearing up for an offensive in Donbass.

Russian military drills in Crimea, western Russia and in Belarus make the West nervous while NATO is beefing up its forces along Russia’s border from the Baltics to the Black Sea. Meanwhile, sporadic diplomatic rounds make it possible to keep up hope that the crisis can be resolved without an armed conflict. However, information leaked on the US "confidential" answer to Russia’s demands to stop NATO’s expansion shows how far the positions of both sides are from each other.

The commentators think that there is a diplomatic solution that will bring peace and stability to this part of Eastern Europe. They assert that the path to success is long and arduous yet it does exist while requiring flexibility and creativity on both sides.

The experts think that the solution to this problem consists of four elements. First of all, it is necessary to introduce restriction on military operations along NATO-Russian borders. Second, there should be a moratorium on NATO’s eastward expansion. The commentators also suggest resolving the current and frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space and in the Balkans as well as updating the 1975 Helsinki Accords that created the OSCE and articulated the coordinated principles of transnational relations that became the foundation of East-West de-escalation.

According to these political specialists, these four elements should be coordinated comprehensively although progress on each of these four directions will most likely proceed at a different rate. The US and Russia need to see how to proceed before starting detailed talks on these issues.

 

Kommersant: Kazakh President heads to Russia to visit Putin

For the first time since the January unrest, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will visit Russia, a country that played an important part in quelling last month’s upheaval in Kazakhstan. The transit of power in Kazakhstan has been completed and Tokayev is now fully in charge. Yet simultaneously he became responsible for the resolution of precisely those problems that led to the eruption of violence in the first place. Russia has made it clear that it intends to continue its support for its neighbor.

Political scientist Daniyar Ashimbaev thinks that Kazakhstan has three main problems: "The first one is the lack of efficient state management. The second is an extremely high concentration of power, of political and economic resources in the hands of a narrow clique. And the third one is the economy’s structure is not conducive to normal development." In order to resolve these issues, according to the expert, it is necessary to mobilize all available tools and resources and consolidate the efforts of the parliament, the government and the presidential administration. So far, he is skeptical of the potential of the president’s new team, since in his opinion "the government does not have a comprehensive view of the situation."

Director of the Talap Center of Applied Research Rakhim Oshakbayev also points to the concentration of power that "does not provide an opportunity to make effective decisions" among main problems. "There are no feedback channels, nor is there any sufficient legitimacy to make firm decisions. So, I think, a reset is needed. I think that there should be extraordinary elections to the Senate and the Mazhilis (the two chambers of Kazakhstan’s parliament)," he told the newspaper.

Russian expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov thinks that the very fact of Tokayev’s visit to Moscow speaks volumes. He is confident that the Kazakh leader will be offered assistance along the lines of intelligence "to fight the Islamic threat and its prevention." "Those who were supposed to fight radicals in Kazakhstan were those who actually trained them. And there are no other organized structures," the expert stated.

 

Izvestia: Kremlin’s Afghanistan envoy sheds light on country's developments six months into Taliban takeover

Russia is ready to receive several diplomats representing the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) in addition to those already working at Afghanistan’s embassy in Moscow, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan and Director of the Foreign Ministry’s Second Asian Department Zamir Kabulov told Izvestia. He added that the Taliban government is showing signs of readiness for political inclusiveness and respect for human rights, but it will take a long time to fulfill the global community’s demands. The diplomat also commented on the process of unfreezing Afghan assets at US banks and whether Central Asian countries are able to contain the infiltration of terrorists.

In his opinion, the United States will unfreeze Afghan accounts sooner or later and is already undertaking tepid steps in this direction. "And the Americans together with the UN are working out options on how to transfer this money via the UN’s humanitarian organizations. This is extremely necessary for the critical needs of ordinary Afghans, above all, in order to provide them with the basics and support for their livelihood. Because children are already dying of hunger and related diseases in large numbers," the diplomat noted.

He pointed out that rather strict measures are in force on the Tajik-Afghan border in order to contain the infiltration of militants who began to exit Afghanistan when the Taliban seized power. "And, as we understand, some of them penetrated into Central Asia. There is indirect information that they also made their way into southern Kazakhstan and then participated in the January events," the envoy explained adding that the entire picture will become clearer once the investigation by the Kazakh authorities concludes.

 

Vedomosti: Russia, Belarus begin active phase of military drills

On February 10, in Belarus, the main phase begins of the most extensive Russian-Belarusian military exercises not seen since the Soviet era. The drills are dubbed Union Resolve 2022. They will be conducted at five Belarusian proving grounds and four airfields where servicemen will practice deflecting possible external aggression against the Union State and counteracting terrorism.

The West is taking these drills to heart due to the Ukrainian crisis. They are viewed exclusively as part of the general accumulation of forces around Ukraine and as an additional front for ‘an invasion’. In recent years, Western analysts were calling Belarus Russia’s springboard for an attack on the Baltics and then against Ukraine. Now Moscow, apparently, decided to play along with these phobias amid the tense situation around Ukraine and talks on security guarantees, Russian International Affairs Council expert (RIAC) Alexander Yermakov thinks.

For instance, Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems may potentially limit NATO’s capabilities to provide logistics support to Ukraine in the event of a conflict, and strike weapons, including modern multirole fighter aircraft may also restrain NATO members, according to Research Fellow at the Center for International Security, Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Stefanovich. He does not rule out that after the drills are over some Russian armaments and military equipment will remain in Belarus. The expert notes that Western concerns over the possible deployment of Russian nukes to Belarus are rather sincere given that the rhetoric of the Belarusian leadership facilitates it. Yet, the Russian side does not confirm such intentions.

 

Izvestia: WHO representative in Russia reveals prospects on recognizing Sputnik V

Melita Vujnovic, World Health Organization (WHO) representative in Russia, has assured that the WHO approval process is the same for all vaccines and there is no way to somehow "speed it up" or "skip" some parts of the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) process. The timeframe depends on many factors, for example, on how quickly a manufacturer submits the necessary data, she told Izvestia.

According to her, the EUL process for Russia’s Sputnik V jab has been resumed, developers and interested parties signed all the necessary legal documents.

"The WHO received the paperwork at the end of December and some of it - in 2022. The issue of whether and when there will be an inspection as well as what is needed to be inspected is being discussed directly between an applicant and the WHO’s headquarters. Until the process is over, all details remain confidential. I cannot speculate as to when the evaluation will be completed, but I know that the process is moving forward," the WHO representative specified.

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