Vedomosti: Russia, Hungary talks economic ties and balance with NATO

On February 1, President Vladimir Putin held his first face-to-face dialogue with a leader of a NATO member state after the West’s accusations against Russia about allegedly concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine, in November 2021. Putin met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a key European leader loyal to Moscow. Despite talking about their bilateral economic ties, the briefing after the talks focused on issues of European and global security, Vedomosti writes.

Putin stated at the press conference that the United States had rejected Moscow's demands, including halting NATO expansion, deploying strike systems near Russia’s borders, and returning the bloc's military infrastructure to the state of 1997. In turn, Orban said that he believes finding a compromise between Russia and NATO is possible.

The "NATO-centric" security system took 30 years to develop and it is naive to believe that it can be dismantled in a month, Director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies at Moscow State University Yuri Rogulev told Vedomosti. It would be incorrect to blame Russia for a delay in its reaction to the latest developments, given that in response to an official document prepared in accordance with all the rules, the US replied with a letter outlining their considerations. In addition, Rogulev believes that Moscow needs to consult with other countries in order to provide an answer to Washington.

The fact that Russia did not give an immediate response to Washington’s reaction is not a delay. Apparently, the US handed over a serious document that cannot be answered with just some reply, Researcher Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Stefanovich believes. According to him, such a document needs to go through, as Lavrov mentioned earlier, interdepartmental approvals and be reviewed by the president, which is not performed in one day.

 

Izvestia: Russia still working on its response to US, NATO

Following conversations with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow was still working on its responses to written counterproposals on security assurances from the US and NATO. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to comments from Washington and Brussels, suggesting that the dialogue would continue. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, genuine compromises are still feasible.

Moscow believes that by adding new members, NATO interprets "indivisible security" solely in its own favor. Western countries, according to Lavrov, seek unilateral gains for themselves while ignoring the interests of others. There were also no fundamentally new statements in the State Department report, Izvestia writes, which proclaim that the US supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, urges Russia to de-escalate, and advocates the right of any country to determine their own foreign policy.

"The negotiations are now divided into two parts: one on various issues of security and the other on what this dialogue should look like in general," former Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs Vladimir Lukin told the newspaper. According to the politician, compromises on both sides are unavoidable, and negotiations are pointless without them.

"I do not believe that any other OSCE document will help ease tensions. Now is the time of conflict, and it is vital to make actual practical agreements, resolving the issues connected to de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine because the threats that Moscow is talking about are conveyed by Ukraine," Associate Professor of the Department of European Law at MGIMO, told Izvestia Nikolai Topornin told Izvestia.

 

Kommersant: Ukraine, Poland, UK working to form trilateral alliance

London, Warsaw, and Kiev will soon announce the creation of a political alliance, the purpose of which is to strengthen regional security, the parties announced on Tuesday during visits to Ukraine by Prime Ministers Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom and Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland, respectively. Meanwhile, Warsaw confirmed the supplies of Grom air defense systems, mortars, drones, and other weapons to Ukraine. According to Kommersant, Ukrainian officials saw all of this as an indication that the West is willing to lend a helping hand to the country.

So far, little is known about the budding alliance. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba stated that Kiev proposed the plan in October of last year, and Warsaw and London just now responded to it. According to him, the countries are connected, among other things, by a desire to expand trade. In response, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denis Shmygal emphasized the importance of the alliance in boosting regional security in the face of "ongoing Russian aggression."

Meanwhile, London is drafting legislation to impose more sanctions against Russia in the event of a "Russian invasion of Ukraine." The United Kingdom also continues to provide weapons to Ukraine. Furthermore, both countries want to assist Kiev with the energy crisis. This way, London and Warsaw have made it clear that they intend to further strengthen diplomatic support for Kiev, according to Kommersant.

On Wednesday, the British PM is expected to call Putin. Some members of the UK government could visit Moscow next week. In turn, Polish Foreign Minister, OSCE Chairman-in-Office Zbigniew Rau will visit Washington this Wednesday, Donbass on February 9, and Russia in the middle of the month.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Energy fears force US to strengthen ties with Qatar

Washington has decided to confer upon Qatar the status of a non-NATO major ally. US President Joe Biden proposed the initiative following a meeting in the American capital with Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The meeting’s agenda touched not only on the problems of the Middle East but also broader global concerns related to energy security. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, by making this symbolic gesture to Doha, the US is likely to enlist its loyalty in terms of replacing Russian gas for the European market if the Ukrainian conflict worsens.

According to the newspaper, Qatar, which hosts the largest US airfield in the Middle East, may become the third country in the Persian Gulf, after Bahrain and Kuwait, which holds the special non-NATO major ally status. This new privileged standing will not provide Qatar with a complete range of opportunities available to regular North Atlantic Alliance members, but it will broaden the way to boosting military-technical cooperation between Doha and Washington.

Expert with the Russian International Affairs Council Kirill Semyonov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the US approach to elevating Doha's role as an ally was nothing new. "In fact, Qatar had such status even before the presence of the largest US airbase in the Middle East, Al Udeid, in the country, so there are no reasons for Doha to change its position now," he said. Nonetheless, this status, according to the expert, provides Qatar with the potential to enhance its position in the face of regional rivals.

 

Kommersant: Europe increases gas purchases from Gazprom

In February, Gazprom began expanding gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine. The Russian gas giant was fully utilizing the contract capacity of the Ukrainian system in the first two days of the month, most likely due to increased customer demand, which may be due to the reduction in the average cost of supply, as spot gas prices were much lower in January than in December, Kommersant writes.

Despite the decline, gas prices remain at historical highs, with January’s averages hovering around $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. Because of the high prices in January, European buyers were more active in purchasing LNG and taking gas from underground storage facilities.

According to Fitch’s Dmitry Marinchenko, the February gas supply scenario will depend on whether Europe can get more gas from Russia. "It appears that supplies in January were primarily constrained to minimum contract levels. It cannot be ruled out that the volume of supply will correlate with the geopolitical backdrop, which can change quickly," he said.

Maria Belova from Vygon Consulting believes that global LNG output is unlikely to expand much in February, while gas prices in Europe are anticipated to be higher than in Asia, resulting in the redirection of some LNG shipments. She told the newspaper that consumers will not be interested in boosting gas purchases to fill storage facilities expecting some price reduction in Q2. "We see no significant reason to increase Russian gas exports in February," she concluded, adding that if the average temperature in Europe remains the same over the next two months as it did in January, the level of gas reserves in storage by April will fall below 10%.

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