Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia, West may hold second round of talks

The failure of last week’s talks between Russia and the West does not mean the end of dialogue. This is the conclusion that can be drawn from the remarks that US officials have made. Many experts believe that a second round of negotiations is possible, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

The announced outcome of the talks in fact offers no cause for optimism. The West rejected two of Russia’s three key security proposals, which concern the need for NATO to end its eastward expansion, as well as withdraw troops and dismantle military infrastructure in Eastern European countries. However, the Russian authorities have pointed out that it is too early to assess the recent talks. First, the US and NATO need to give a written response to Russia’s proposals. The latest interviews by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland can be viewed as kind of a reaction to Moscow’s evaluation of the outcome of the negotiations. The US top diplomat made it clear that these actually weren’t talks but some prelude to future talks. The deputy secretary of state, in turn, confirmed that Washington was working on a written response to Russia’s proposals.

Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vladimir Vasilyev believes that US President Joe Biden is interested in dialogue, mostly for domestic political reasons. His foreign policy looks like a failure at the moment but if Biden acts as a peacemaker who saved Ukraine from Russia’s invasion, he will score some points. According to Vasilyev, the Kremlin, in turn, does not mind playing along with the US president because the current weak US leader suits Russia well. This alone is reason enough to continue dialogue.

But if the written responses of the United States and NATO don’t lead to a new round of talks, tough action will follow. Associate Professor at the Department of Global Security at Moscow State University’s School of World Politics Alexei Fenenko does not rule out that the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations between Russia and NATO may be denounced in the near future.

 

Vedomosti: Economists assess potential effect of new US sanctions on Russia

The results of Russia’s negotiations with the United States and NATO have raised concerns among market players since economists view the risk of tensions as high, Vedomosti writes, citing a report by Renaissance Capital experts. They regard a new US bill on sanctions against Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine as moderately tough. If the scenario is implemented, the ruble may drop by 3-6% and yields on federal loan bonds may rise by 1.2 percentage points, which means that it won’t lead to tangible consequences.

Still, since the bill provides the US president with the right to significantly expand the sanctions list beyond the companies and individuals that it mentions, it may have a critical effect, including an up to a 20% plunge of the ruble, the economists wrote. In this regard, everything will depend on who is the target of restrictions. However, the authors of the report believe that Russia’s pain threshold is rather high at the moment, given the country’s solid fiscal stance, its considerable reserves and de-dollarization policy, along with various response tools. Besides, the international impact of sanctions may be too high to take harsh measures.

The potential restrictive measures will affect neither the stability of the Russian budget nor economic activities, the authors of the report emphasized, expressing a belief that Russia’s GDP would grow by 2.7% in 2022. At the same time, a weaker ruble may even turn out to be a positive thing in terms of the country’s trade balance and tax revenues.

Meanwhile, as for a scenario that includes Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the proposed sanctions make it possible to considerably expand the blacklist, first and foremost targeting Russia’s mining and financial sectors. In this case, the economists expect that the outflow from the debt market and, more importantly, stock market may reach the levels recorded in 2014-2015, with the ruble diving by up to 20%.

 

Izvestia: Why is Russia being blamed for Europe’s energy crisis

Russian suppliers have not only fulfilled all of their contract obligations to their European partners but they also stepped up gas deliveries to Europe, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, commenting on new accusations being hurled against Moscow that it is trying to worsen the already painful predicament plaguing the European Union’s energy market. Experts say that these accusations against Moscow are part of an anti-Russian propaganda campaign and an attempt to cover up Europe’s economic mistakes.

"Had Gazprom really failed to implement its obligations concerning gas supplies, its clients would have filed complaints and regulators would have taken repressive measures," Deputy Director General of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund Alexei Grivach explained. "This is why all this is part of an anti-Russian propaganda campaign that is not based on facts," he added.

"This is deception and speculation amid tensions between Russia and the collective West, as well as attempts to accuse Russia of behaving aggressively towards its partners," said Deputy Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Europe Vladislav Belov.

According to German political guru Alexander Rahr, it is the activities of European officials that led to the explosion of the gas crisis. The energy transition is one of the reasons, because renewables have failed to meet demand. "They don’t want to fess up to their blunders and miscalculations. So, they need someone to blame, they need an enemy country to pin the blame on. Unfortunately, Russia is Europe’s perfect punching bag," he pointed out.

EU residents are already expressing outrage at soaring prices, which is why officials have to search for someone to point their fingers at, Rahr added. The expert shares the opinion that the Europeans did cause the energy crisis themselves. The launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would increase gas supplies and everything depends on the Europeans here, the analyst noted.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Law and order still fragile in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is still advancing full steam ahead with its counterterrorism operation. As many as 2,400 people have been arrested, while criminal cases have been launched against 446 perpetrators of the mass insurrection that took the lives of 225 people and left 4,578 wounded. Furthermore, a crackdown against those close to first Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is underway in the country, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.

Senior Researcher with the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations Stanislav Pritchin believes that "so far, we have heard the authorities make populist statements that are hard to implement." "[Kazakh President] Tokayev said in an address to parliament that a system of large-scale business had been created that first and foremost served itself. It’s not quite clear how to change the rules of the game. Reconsidering the results of the country’s privatization campaign will deal a serious blow to Kazakhstan’s investment attractiveness. All the measures and concerns that Tokayev highlighted are largely fair but it’s not quite clear how to change the system because the system and big business will defend themselves and they have resources to do that," the expert explained.

Businessmen will try to make agreements with the new authorities on new terms. "However, we know how revolutions end and, as a rule, all the good goals and intensions crash head on into reality. Still, Tokayev also needs to be able to make agreements with big business and foreign investors. He can’t shoot from the hip and destroy the prospects for Kazakhstan’s economic development," the analyst pointed out. According to him, the situation is even more complicated when it comes to bringing offshore assets back because there is a need for a domestic investigation, as was the case in Uzbekistan.

As for pressure on "the Nazarbayev family," experts link it with the first Kazakh president’s disappearance from the media landscape. Orientalist scholar Yevgeny Satanovsky believes that Nazarbayev probably "passed on," which is why chaos engulfed the country. "The fact that the Elbasy’s (leader of the nation) family members are rapidly losing their positions and leaving the country makes it clear that there is something wrong with Nazarbayev. The situation with the country’s elite is similar to the developments that followed Stalin’s death," the expert noted. In his view, order has never been established in Kazakhstan.

 

Izvestia: Australia deports tennis star Novak Djokovic

Australia’s federal court rejected an appeal filed by the world’s number one tennis player Novak Djokovic, upholding the move to deport the athlete from the country. Now, Djockovic will miss the first major tournament of the year, losing a chance to earn a lot of money and set a new record, winning his 21st Grand Slam title, Izvestia writes.

"In this story, there are a lot of questions for Australia’s government," the world’s former number five player Anna Chakvetadze told the newspaper. "Instead of putting up a show, they could have denied him participation in the Australian Open right away as a person who refused to get vaccinated. I think it all began with an Instagram photo of his flight to Australia. It is a long flight and by the time he got there, such an uproar had developed in Australia that when Djokovic entered the country without being vaccinated based on a medical exemption, everyone had already come under the media’s pressure. Other people had made no noise about their medical exemptions, giving no statements," she stressed.

Andrey Chesnokov, the winner of seven ATP tournaments and the first Soviet holder of a Masters title, agrees with Chakvetadze.

"I saw the Australian prime minister’s press conference, where he made a tough statement," Chesnokov pointed out. "It was then when I realized that he would do everything possible to deport Djokovic from the country. Meanwhile, it was partly through Djokovic that the tournament gained the support of numerous sponsors. He could have been granted an exception. Novak did help, he did a lot not only for tennis but for Australians as well. I understand that he messed it up but then again, they should have made it clear in advance that he would have not been able to enter the country without being jabbed," the tennis player added.

A thing to note is that without Novak Djokovic, Russia’s Daniil Medvedev is now the tournament’s favorite.

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