Vedomosti: What sparked gunfire on the Polish-Belarusian border

On November 8, for the first time since the migrant crisis began in August on the Belarusian border with Lithuania and Poland, Middle Eastern migrants attempted to cross the border into Poland en masse.

According to the BelTA news agency, the group numbered about 1,500 people and consisted mainly of Iraqi Kurds, while Poland says there were 3,000-4,000 migrants. Having failed to cross the border, the migrants set up camp there and by the evening, sources on both sides of the border reported having heard shots.

The EU accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of intentionally shuttling in migrants via specially organized flights from Iraq. The Belarusian authorities began to let the migrants from the Middle East into Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in August. Before that, Belarus exited the agreement on readmission with the EU according to which it was supposed to accept the illegal migrants detained in the neighboring EU countries. Belarus made this move in response to strict economic sanctions that Brussels imposed on it in early July.

The migrant problem cannot be flatly blamed on Minsk, says Vyacheslav Sutyrin of the State Academic University for the Humanities. According to him, the Polish leadership is also an interested party. The ruling Law and Justice party came to power with an anti-migrant agenda and is now playing this card. Poland is supported by Germany which is interested in migrants not reaching its territory. At the same time, Belarus is not violating any norms of international law since it suspended the action of the readmission agreement. It is not possible to exclude that Belarusian and Polish forces may clash on the border just as it is not possible to exclude various provocations. However, given the Belarusian-Russian military alliance, and Poland’s membership in NATO, the price of such provocations may be very high, the expert says.

According to Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs, Fyodor Lukyanov, the Belarusian leadership found a potent response to the hostile policy of Warsaw and Vilnius, however, the consequences of the resulting tension may be unpredictable. However, neither side is interested in a sharp escalation of the confrontation. The expert thinks both Belarus and Poland will avoid a direct conflict on the border.

 

Kommersant: Gazprom not significantly increasing supplies to Europe

Gazprom did not significantly increase the volume of supplies to Europe on November 8, although it did resume filling its European underground storage facilities according to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s instructions on October 27. Since November 6, Gazprom’s key storage facilities in Europe on average are being filled with 18.2 mln cubic meters per day. The level there currently is very low, the Rehden storage facility in Germany, its largest, is only 9.47% full, while Haidah in Austria is 54.8% full, and the average occupancy level in Europe stands at 75.4%.

On October 29, Gazprom reported that it reached its planned level of 72.6 bln cubic meters of operational reserve in Russian storage facilities. Despite that, in the first days of November, the company even decreased its supplies to Europe. It stepped up gas transit via Ukraine - from approximately 60 mln cubic meters to 88-90 mln cubic meters per day, however, this is still below the pre-paid 110 mln cubic meters per day. On average, over the past ten days, Gazprom has been pumping 82 mln cubic meters per day via the Ukrainian corridor. Long-term transit capacities of this route have been pre-paid and it is not profitable for Gazprom to increase the volume above the contractual level.

The westward flow of natural gas along the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Poland has been suspended again on November 6, and Gazprom did not book additional transit capacities for November 9. It is also not planning to use an electronic marketplace, its alternative channel of selling gas to Europe.

Fitch’s Dmitry Marinchenko thinks that Gazprom’s actions are related to the decision not to increase its supply of gas to Europe so far. Market players will continue to observe the dynamics of supplies from Russia. Should they rise, the necessary yet insufficient conditions for the normalization of prices are being created, he thinks. According to the analyst, the absence of additional supplies may ultimately lead to a physical deficit and price hikes, especially if the winter is cold.

 

Kommersant: Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia looking forward to new summit on South Caucasus

One year after a trilateral statement on ending the Karabakh war was signed on November 9, 2020, the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are getting ready for a new summit. As Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, there are no exact dates yet but "work is underway." Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan urged not view the meeting as "a goal in itself." His reaction reflects the serious nature of the problems being discussed. Baku and Yerevan cannot agree on a single issue on the bilateral agenda, the main ones being the demarcation and delimitation of the border as well as the signing of a peace treaty. In this situation, Moscow that played the key role in ending the war, offering assistance in launching the talks on the border which would decrease the risk of a new aggravation.

It is very symbolic that the first anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war is being marked in Baku and Yerevan by way of two opposite scenarios. If Azerbaijan is in a festive mood on its Victory Day marked on November 8, then in Yerevan the situation is once again heating up. After the first reports of a trilateral meeting where documents may be signed on unblocking transport communications, demarcation and the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the Armenian opposition made its move and warned Pashinyan of the inadmissibility of "yet another capitulating agreement" with Baku.

"Nikol Pashinyan’s harsh rhetoric and unwillingness to clarify the key issues of the settlement, including the unblocking of links, the delimitation and demarcation of the border and the creation of a stable regional cooperation format which excludes the possibility of further destabilization, is explained by the complicated situation that the Armenian PM finds himself in," Director of Azerbaijan’s Center for the History of Caucasus Rizvan Huseynov told the newspaper, explaining that the prime minister is under a lot of pressure from the opposition. According to the expert, in this situation the main goal of the trilateral summit will become the confirmation of the adherence to last year’s peace agreements without signing any new ones.

According to a statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry, made public earlier, Moscow is ready to provide consultations on the border issue, supply the necessary maps and share its demarcation expertise. "The delimitation should proceed according to old Soviet military maps. Not only because they are probably the most precise ones. This is not just a technical issue. With a successful resolution, it may become the foundation of a future Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty in the form of mutual recognition by the sides of each other’s territorial integrity, reached with Moscow’s mediation," Azerbaijani political analyst and an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club Farkhad Mammadov told the newspaper.

"A year after the war ended, the situation remains highly complex," Alexander Gushchin, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council said, pointing out that the status quo today and its future still depend on Russia for which the Karabakh conflict remains one of the most serious challenges in post-Soviet space.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China to build military base in Tajikistan

Dushanbe announced that Beijing earmarked $8.5 mln to build a base near Afghanistan. Chinese servicemen won’t be stationed there. Commentators in the South China Morning Post think that this decision is related to two factors: first, Beijing’s fears that Uyghur militants may penetrate into China after crossing the poorly protected Tajik-Afghan border, and second, the new Silk Road plan. It notes that the Chinese presence in central Asia continues to expand with China becoming the main investor and supplier for Tajikistan.

US think tanks and media outlets regularly publish materials that China is pushing Russia out of its traditional sphere of influence: Central Asia. According to one of the reports, a secret Chinese base has already been built not far from the border with Afghanistan. This demonstrates that Beijing is not limiting itself to just broadening its economic influence, it is also boosting its role in the security sphere.

In a conversation with the newspaper, Vasily Kashin, Senior Researcher at the Higher School of Economics said: "Chinese servicemen were periodically present on Tajik soil. After signing a deal on combating terrorism by Afghanistan’s previous government with Tajikistan in 2016, the Chinese periodically went to the territory of neighboring countries, there they had posts. In not one case whatsoever did the patrols result in a lengthy military presence. At the same time, the practice existed of the Chinese financing the construction of military bases. That is, Beijing was helping neighboring states here so they could ensure security."

According to the expert, Moscow does not see the Chinese patrols as a serious problem, pointing out that Russia has a military base in Afghanistan numbering up to 10,000 people. "Additionally, one shouldn’t forget that Russia, China and Tajikistan coordinate the actions of its servicemen within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization," the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Who’s behind the assassination attempt on Iraqi PM

Three bomb-laden drones attacked the residence of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi during the pre-dawn hours of November 7. He was not hurt, yet several of his bodyguards were wounded. The assassination attempt occurred against the background of Iraq’s power struggle with Shia militants. Some blame Tehran for the attack, others accuse terrorists or Western forces. The attack is also seen by some as being staged. An investigation was launched while no one has assumed the responsibility for the incident. The prime minister himself said that he knew who was responsible yet did not name any names.

Al-Kadhimi came to power in the spring of 2020. Before that, he was in charge of the national intelligence. He managed to turn Iraq into a venue for negotiations between Tehran and Riyadh and conduct successful operations against the ringleaders of the Islamic State (IS, outlawed in Russia), yet he could neither establish order inside his own country nor improve the economic situation, nor could he control the activity of the Shia al-Hashd al-Shaabi group.

According to Danila Krylov of the Center for Oriental Studies, the political bloc that represented the interests of al-Hashd al-Shaabi, lost about half of their votes after the parliamentary elections in mid-October, and accused the government of fixing the results of the vote. "Clashes with security forces erupted. People were injured," the expert noted. While sources in the US think that the militants of this Shia group may be behind the attack, in Iraq many think that the attack was staged by local intelligence attempting to blame the pro-Iranian groups that support all foreign forces leaving Iraq as well as to draw the attention away from the clashes.

According to Farkhad Ibragimov, an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club, Al-Kadhimi still may manage to preserve stability and relative peace in the country since he conducts a multi-vector policy and sees Iraq as an independent state capable of recapturing its authority and sway in the region. According to the expert, there are forces inside Iraq who are not happy with the strengthening of his positions. "Most likely, they were the ones who attacked his residence," the expert thinks, pointing out that it is unlikely that Iran was involved.

"It is not excluded that [certain] forces in the region want to drive a wedge between Baghdad and Tehran preventing the establishment of closer interaction," the analyst told Izvestia. Krylov points out that anyone could have used the drones, both the Shia militants and the pro-government forces "who would like to discredit the prime minister and force him to resign. There is also the issue of the activity of a militarized pro-Iranian group." "This attack benefits many. In the short-term perspective, the authorities may preserve stability in the country but in the long-term [perspective] - most likely not. It is not excluded that in the future there will be new protests or even a new election," the expert concluded.

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