Izvestia: Putin, Lukashenko hash over Ryanair emergency landing

The Russian Foreign Ministry must carefully monitor the court proceedings in the case of Russian national Sofia Sapega, who was detained in Belarus earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said following talks with his Belarusian colleague Alexander Lukashenko held on Friday and Saturday in Sochi. Sapega was detained in Minsk along with Roman Protasevich, the former editor of the Nexta Telegram channel, after the Ryanair passenger plane they were on had to make an emergency landing at Minsk Airport, Izvestia reports.

The May 28 talks between Putin and Lukashenko lasted for more than five hours. The conversation continued over the weekend, this time in an informal setting. The leaders went on a boat trip, accompanied by Lukashenko’s son Nikolai.

The Kremlin confirmed that the Belarusian leader had informed Putin in detail about the situation with the Ryanair plane.

However, the main topic of the talks was the further development of trade and economic development and the fight against the pandemic, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday evening. Putin’s press secretary pointed out that Lukashenko had not requested additional economic aid from Moscow during the talks. So far, Russia has approved sending $500 mln to Minsk in the second tranche of state credit to Belarus. According to Peskov, the money will come in "in the near future."

This latest meeting between the presidents was of key importance because Russia has shown that it will not abandon Belarus in times of trouble, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian integration, and Relations with Compatriots Viktor Vodolatsky told Izvestia. He noted that right now, it is necessary to approve all roadmaps tied to the development of the Union State as soon as possible since it is important for both countries’ economies, the MP concluded.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Turkey to begin construction of Istanbul Canal shortly

In late June, Turkey plans to launch construction of the Istanbul Canal, which will run parallel to the Bosporus Strait, connecting the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated on Saturday. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta think that the new waterway may create additional risks for Russia.

The new 45-kilometer-long canal must serve as a parallel waterway supporting the 30-kilometer-long Bosporus Strait. The capacity of the existing strait is 120 vessels a day, and the average waiting time is 14.5 hours. The heavy traffic is caused by the movement of tourists and other small vessels in Istanbul, and accidents occur quite often. It is planned that the largest vessels, especially ones transporting dangerous cargo, will be moved to the Istanbul Canal, where more than 180 vessels pass through daily.

In December 2019, Erdogan stated that sea traffic through the canal will not fall under the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, signed in 1936. The convention guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime and restricts the passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states.

If Turkey declares that the new canal will not follow the Montreux Convention, the Dardanelles may be able to ensure Russia’s military interests, if Turkey does not decide to build a parallel waterway there as well, experts note.

The construction of the Istanbul Canal has three aspects: political, military, and economic, Amur Gadzhiev, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "NATO states, first and foremost, the US and the UK, are definitely interested in an alternative route for military vessels in the Black Sea not regulated by the Montreux Convention, which is an irritant for Russia. A new canal for Turkey is an additional trump card in negotiations with Moscow. As for the economy, Russia is one of the main transporters of cargo via the "Turkish" straits, and it is not interested in the restricted passage of tankers through the Bosporus with the aim of moving more ships to the new canal. Under normal conditions, there are no economic reasons to use the Istanbul Canal, however, several Turkish analytical works note that the passage of our oil tankers and vessels with other cargo through the center of a multi-million city may be used as an excuse to declare it a security threat in the future, and thus passage might be restricted. It won’t be hard to find an excuse. This way, they will be able to "attract new clients," since, under the restrictions, businesses will be forced to use the new waterway," the expert said.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Pentagon seeks to ramp up defense spending

The US Congress will soon start deliberating on the country’s military budget for 2022, with the Biden White House requesting over $752 bln for defense purposes, 1.6% higher than the Trump administration planned for 2021 (about $740 bln). For the first time, the US draft defense budget includes the so-called "Pacific Deterrence Initiative," whose funding is planned solely based on countering China, Nezavisimaya Gazeta informs.

The Pentagon admits that Russia and China are ahead of the US so far in the development of certain types of modern weapons, and it seems that the US plans to rectify this through large-scale funding of weapons development. Navy Vice Admiral Ronald Boxall, Director of Force Structure, Resources, and Assessments for the Joint Staff, stated during a press conference that the US defense budget for 2022 includes the deployment of airborne, ground-based and sea-based hypersonic weapons.

It is known that Russia has a new type of hypersonic strategic weapon known as the Avangard, which has been on standby in Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces for over a year, the paper notes.

However, the US did not announce the development of strategic hypersonic weapons like Russia’s Avangard so far. Reuters stresses the fact that despite the decline in funding of older weapon systems, the Biden administration proposes to invest over $60 bln dollars into the modernization of the US nuclear triad, which is more than the entire Russian defense budget for 2021 (about $43 bln). The Kremlin stated many times that Russia would not join the arms race, reaching parity with the US and NATO through asymmetrical means.

Russian military expert Nikolai Nekliudov pointed out that during a recent session on defense matters, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the development of military-transport aviation. "The Il-76 heavy planes, which are over 20 years old, form the bulk of the aviation fleet, and they are close to expiring as a resource. Where is the replacement?" he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The expert noted that Russian officials had attempted to tackle this issue for the last 20 years. "So far, the military transport planes are produced as single units," he said, adding that the difficult economic situation in Russia may be the reason for that. "Under these conditions, the Americans have a trump card in the arms race with Moscow, of course. And it will be very hard for Russia to win it, considering the Pentagon’s ambitious plans," he concluded.

 

Izvestia: Moscow may bring up issue of Russian citizens convicted in US at Putin-Biden summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin may raise the issue of Russian citizens convicted in the US, namely Konstantin Yaroshenko, during the upcoming summit with US President Joe Biden, an informed source told Izvestia. The source noted that Washington is not considering the possibility of swapping Russian nationals for US citizens held in Russia, namely Trevor Reed and Paul Whelan, so Moscow has no plans to return them.

Konstantin Yaroshenko was convicted in the United States on September 7, 2011, and sentenced to 20 years in prison. He pled not guilty and slammed his arrest as a provocation, emphasizing that he was framed by US authorities. Yaroshenko was brought to the United States from Liberia, where he was arrested on May 28, 2010. Agents of the US Drug Enforcement Administration allegedly exposed Yaroshenko’s criminal intent to transport a large batch of cocaine.

Izvestia reported that Yaroshenko’s family had sent a letter to US President Joe Biden, asking for his release. Viktoria, Yaroshenko’s wife, told the paper that she had sent similar letters to former US leader Barack Obama and Donald Trump, however, she received no response. So far, the convicted pilot has served over half of his prison term, and in this case, it may be easier for the US administration to make a decision regarding his pardon.

On June 16, Putin is set to meet with Biden in Geneva, where they will discuss topics on the bilateral agenda. Russian government officials repeatedly stated that Moscow always brings up the issue of Russian nationals convicted in the US. The latest discussion of this issue was held by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Reykjavik on May 20, another informed source told the paper.

"Indeed, the question of the return of Russian nationals convicted in the US was raised, and namely the fate of Konstantin Yaroshenko. We are convinced that this was a planned operation by US intelligence on illegitimate charges. It was done on the territory of a third state in violation of all international rights, and the man was kidnapped and taken to the US," the source said. "We support the family’s plans to write a letter to Washington requesting his pardon."

 

Kommersant: Fate of Russia’s fuel export under question

Russian oil refineries may be facing issues with the supply of light oil products as their production grows and the demand on export markets decreases, a report by KPMG in possession of Kommersant informs. Right now, about half of 80 mln tonnes of diesel fuel produced in Russia is exported, mainly to European markets. Meanwhile, Russian oil refineries continue their modernization in accordance with the existing agreements with the Russian Ministry of Energy until 2030, in turn receiving subsidies from the government. As a result of this modernization, the production of diesel fuel may reach 110-120 mln tonnes by 2030, KPMG predicts, while the Russian domestic market can only handle about 40-50 mln tonnes.

Currently, Russian diesel fuel comes to about 70% of European imports, however, due to the environmental agenda and the shift to electric transport, the demand for diesel fuel in the EU will decrease. Oleg Zhirnov, an expert with KPMG, notes that the excess amount of diesel fuel produced by Russian oil refineries may be rerouted for bunkering to replace fuel oil. However, there will still be a surplus of about 20-30 mln tonnes of diesel fuel a year, and finding new markets may be a challenge, Zhirnov stated. New ways of using diesel fuel in air transport, energy generation, and in the petrochemical industry may be an alternative, however, this will require looking for new technologies, the expert concluded.

As for petrol, Russia is set to produce 45 mln tonnes of it annually by 2030, with the expected surplus predicted by KPMG estimated at 5-7 mln tonnes, which will be exported to neighboring states, first and foremost to Central Asia.

For its part, Petromarket estimates the petrol surplus at about 12 mln tonnes by 2024, expecting the domestic demand to remain at about 36 mln tonnes. Considering that Russia exported 5.6 mln tonnes of oil in 2020, the surplus volume is unlikely to be exported fully to Central Asia, head of Petromarket Ivan Khomutov told the paper. According to him, there may be additional petrol exports to Europe, which will put pressure on regional prices and have a negative effect on both Russian and European oil refineries.

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