Kommersant: Lukashenko asks Putin for aid if protests get out of control

Upon the request of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russia has formed a backup law enforcement unit, which, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, would not be used "unless extremist elements hiding behind political slogans cross certain lines," namely, unless they begin to "torch houses, banks, to try seizing administrative buildings." Poland condemned Putin’s statements immediately, accusing Moscow of planning a "military intervention under the false premise of restoring control." On the whole, Europe remains undecided, not ready for radical steps. The session of EU foreign ministers has shown that even the introduction of sanctions against Belarusian officials remains an undecided issue.

For her part, former Belarusian presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who considers herself the winner of the presidential election, and the Coordination Council set up by the Belarusian opposition, took a while to comment on Putin’s statement. By the end of the day, the opposition published a statement, in which it criticized Lukashenko more than the Russian leader.

"The statement of the Russian side shows us that Lukashenko is weak, that he fears his own people and is not ready to listen to them, that he has to address another state for aid," member of the Coordination Council’s leadership Maria Kolesnikova informed Kommersant.

However, she noted that there would be no surge in anti-Russian slogans during protests: "The Belarusian nation has a lot of respect for the Russian people. It is Lukashenko who is trying to drive a wedge and cause a fight between the nations. However, he won’t succeed," she added. "The resolution of our own issues tops on the agenda. On the other hand, there are no Belarusians who would want to abandon their friendship with Russia."

Belarusian political analyst Artyom Shraibman told Kommersant that the Belarusian opposition would not make any anti-Russian slogans. "With its statement, the Coordination Council counters the attempts of Lukashenko to label it anti-Russian and pro-Western. This is a fight for control over the agenda. Lukashenko wants to make the agenda foreign, while the opposition want it to remain domestic," the expert pointed out.

 

Izvestia: US-Russian prisoner swap might take place within one month

A prisoner swap between Russia and the United States may be held in about a month, after both countries’ diplomats agree on the details, Vladimir Zherebenkov, an attorney of jailed US national Paul Whelan, told Izvestia. Whelan may be swapped for Russian nationals Konstantin Yaroshenko and Viktor Bout, who are serving prison sentences in the United States. The Russian Foreign Ministry is calling on the American authorities to release the Russian prisoners from jail due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the ministry has not officially confirmed to Izvestia that prisoner swap talks are underway.

A diplomatic source told Izvestia that Russia and the US had raised the issue of a prisoner exchange during several meetings, however, no final agreement on the conditions has been reached. On the whole, the US does not object to the handover of Konstantin Yaroshenko, for example, the source noted.

Yaroshenko’s wife Viktoria told the paper that the prisoner swap issue had been raised a while ago. "This has been discussed since the detention of Paul Whelan. Of course, we would want this to happen, because we have been trying to get Konstantin back through all possible mechanisms for 10 years, and nothing has worked. There is a lot of hope for the swap, for him to come back to Russia," she said.

According to Whelan’s defense, there is some positive progress on the prisoner swap issue. "Lawyers are not privy to such matters, this is the task of diplomats and intelligence services," Whelan’s attorney Vladimir Zherebenkov said. "There are some positive signals, of course. Those issues have been discussed for a while, and I think everything will be fine. Right now, they are discussing the procedure of a prisoner exchange and who will be swapped. Russia would like to return two Russian nationals (Konstantin Yaroshenko and Viktor Bout - Izvestia). It is unclear so far whether the Americans will agree. As for the date of the procedure, this depends on the effort of diplomats. We can easily achieve this within a month," he informed.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Washington sees Russia and China as a common enemy

The South China Sea is becoming a platform for a direct confrontation between Washington and Beijing, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. During recent drills, China launched ballistic missiles into the South China Sea, including one dubbed an "aircraft-carrier killer." The US responded by blacklisting 26 Chinese officials and companies involved in the construction of bases on disputed islands, stressing that America will continue to resist Chinese expansion. According to US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, both Beijing and Moscow present a challenge to Washington.

The US plans to deploy its forces in the Indo-Pacific region in such a way so that it can have the opportunity to counter both China and Russia, Esper said.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta asked Director of the Institute of the Far East at the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Maslov if Washington intends to counter China and Russia separately or if it expects a joint response. "This is a rather delicate game. The US wants to claim that there is some anti-American coalition in the world, represented by China and Russia. In this sense, the enemy is strong and very dangerous. However, in reality, China and Russia have different stances on the United States. The launch of missiles by China shows that they are ready to counter the Americans. Meanwhile, Russia has not shown any military aggression towards the US. Secondly, there is no military-political alliance between Russia and China aimed at the United States. The US is talking about some phantom that does not exist. In the run-up to the election, one of Trump’s slogans will be: the US must counter global communism in the face of China and any potential aggression from the side of China and Russia," the expert noted.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Oil industry won’t recover until effective COVID-19 vaccine found

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview on Thursday that Russia had passed the peak of economic difficulties, although oil prices "could be a little higher." However, IHS Markit predicts that the recovery of oil demand will depend on whether air travel can be fully restored and whether pre-pandemic economic activity can be reached. Experts note that this will not happen until an effective COVID-19 vaccine is found, Nezavisimaya Gazeta informs.

Currently, the demand for oil hit 89% compared to the corresponding period of 2019. In April, this figure reached 78%. However, this surge is temporary. The recovery rate will slow down in the first quarter of 2021, the analytics company suggests. The demand will reach about 92-95% of the first quarter of 2019. Reduced air travel represents one of the main negative factors stalling the recovery of the oil market, IHS Markit noted, adding that the consumption of jet fuel only reached 50% of last year’s level.

According to Chief Analyst of Alor Broker Alexei Antonov, the prognosis of IHS Markit is "too optimistic." "Yes, it is likely that the second half of the year will be marked by a recovery, however, the economy will return to the pre-coronavirus levels no earlier than in two or three years," he predicted. "Reduced business activity and the drop in demand as a result of hidden unemployment across the world will continue to cause lowered demand for petroleum products and oil," the expert told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

BCS Senior Analyst Vitaly Gromadin agrees that the production of a COVID-19 vaccine is a necessary condition for the full recovery of oil demand, especially with regards to jet fuel.

"There is a risk of the second wave of the epidemic in the fall and the corresponding quarantine restrictions (of a more reasonable nature, however, they may still deal a blow to the oil demand once again). Under this negative scenario, the threat of an oil reservoirs overflow may return," the expert warned.

 

Izvestia: Russian travel agencies lose half their revenue at height of 2020 season

Russian travel agencies have lost half their revenue in 2020 compared to the similar period of 2019 due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, Izvestia reports, citing data on the industry’s numbers.

According to IT company Evotor, the revenue of Russian travel agencies during the high season (July and the first half of August) has been half that of last year’s. The average price of tours has been 5% lower than last year’s in July and 8% lower in August.

The company suggests that the drop in revenue is caused by the fact that Russian tourists had to pick domestic tourism destinations. Many Russians prefer to travel around the country on their own, without the help of travel agencies.

According to Yandex Kassa, the turnover of online travel sales has plunged 70% for one outlet, while the average price has plummeted 60% lower than last year. However, the company noted a 135% surge in hotel bookings, which shows that tourists have moved towards with planning their trips without the aid of travel agencies.

Moscow and St. Petersburg, the two Russian cities most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, have lost 50% and 37% of revenue compared to 2019 accordingly.

 

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