Media: Russia creating anti-Turkish alliance amid tensions over Idlib

Russia has been trying to abandon its tactical partnership with Turkey in Syria counterbalancing it by cooperating with the Gulf states, Al-Monitor wrote, stressing that of late Moscow has stepped up contacts with a number of Arab countries. The reason behind this could be irreconcilable differences between Russia and Turkey in Syria’s Idlib Governorate, which is controlled by both the pro-Turkish opposition and terrorists. Arab monarchies, except for Qatar, are Turkey’s key geopolitical rivals and any move to intensify contacts, especially amid escalating tensions over Idlib, could give rise to suspicions that Moscow is seeking a counterbalance to its ally Ankara, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Russian International Affairs Council expert Anton Mardasov believes that Moscow has the resources for rebalancing forces, but it has to change the rules of the game in Syria. "First, it was important for the Kremlin to galvanize Turkey’s efforts in Idlib. There was no other means of forcing it to interfere rather than to raise the stakes. Second, Moscow is interested in weakening Syria’s opposition and even more wants Damascus to acknowledge the boundaries of its capabilities: Assad’s units are powerless without Russia’s direct support," the analyst said. This means that Russia could use this situation to get greater loyalty from President Bashar Assad, Mardasov noted. "Third, distancing itself from Turkey over Idlib allows Russia to take into account the opinion of Arab monarchies, which seek to contain both Iran and Turkey," he pointed out.

According to military expert Yuri Netkachev, Ankara has no reason to quarrel with Moscow over Idlib. "First, the Turkish military’s active participation in the Syrian war and their losses have already come under criticism of the country’s politicians and its society." Besides, the Turks have a major economic interest in Russia as far as agricultural trade, tourism, energy projects and military and technical cooperation go. "All this finally encourages them to search for a compromise."

Russian political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov told Vedomosti that a Russian-Turkish war is impossible, noting that the behavior of Moscow and Ankara points to this. "A war would trigger devastating consequences for both sides and that’s why this is ruled out. We do not know for sure who had carried out the strike [on the Turkish military] but everyone carefully stresses that this was the Syrian regime and this shows that no one is interested in any Russian-Turkish escalation."

The only way to iron out challenging issues around Idlib is to hold face-to-face talks between the Russian and Turkish leaders, Izvestia writes. According to both sides, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan plan to meet in Moscow on March 5 or March 6. Enes Bayrakli, an expert at the Turkish think-tank SETA, believes that the two leaders have every chance of resolving the Idlib crisis.

 

Izvestia: Serbia walking tightrope between Russia, US and EU

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is paying a three-day visit to Washington D.C. until March 3. During the visit, the Serbian leader is scheduled to meet with US Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The talks are expected to focus on Kosovo and Metohija. Earlier, the US threatened to slap sanctions on Serbia over its purchase of Russian armaments, namely the Pantsir-S1 missile system. Against this background, Belgrade is cementing ties with NATO while Washington and Brussels are resuming active mediation in normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo after a year-long pause, Izvestia writes.

A key point of Donald Trump’s strategy is to force Serbia to recognize Kosovo’s independence, Senior Researcher with the Institute of Slavic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Pyotr Iskenderov told the paper. "Ahead of the US presidential election in November, the American leader wants to score major triumphs on the international arena. Reaching a deal between Belgrade and Pristina would be a big win," the analyst noted.

Western leaders are ready to make a surprise offer on changing the border between Kosovo and Serbia as part of a peace deal between Pristina and Belgrade. Presidents Vucic and Hashim Thaci have welcomed the border review proposal.

Should Vucic decide to recognize Kosovo without securing Moscow’s backing, he could face the risk of losing support in his own country where Russian President Vladimir Putin is more popular than any of the local politicians, the paper notes. However, it’s disadvantageous for Moscow to push for a final settlement on Kosovo, since this could shatter its influence in the region.

Meanwhile, President Vucic has a Plan B in the offing and could suggest holding a referendum on a deal that would envisage certain guarantees from Washington and Brussels on Serbia joining the EU, the analyst notes.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: ‘Sleepy Joe’ awakes from slumber landing first big primary win

Former US Vice President Joe Biden has won his first triumph, clinching victory in the South Carolina primaries, but the real struggle to become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee lies ahead. On Super Tuesday, 14 states are set to hold their primaries.

Biden’s success in South Carolina is really impressive. Nearly half of those Democrats who came to vote, backed him, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who used to be in the Democratic Party lead, garnered less than 20%. Billionaire Tom Steyer’s third spot with 11% is also a huge surprise. The entrepreneur was not among the favorites at the party’s polls although he has major influence among the Democrats.

Speaking about the reasons behind Biden’s big win in South Carolina, analysts note that he was mostly backed by racial minorities. "If the mood in South Carolina is typical for African-Americans, this means that they are less subjected to left-wing populism as it seemed. Biden with his centrist ideology and reputation of being in "Barack Obama’s shadow" tends to be more common for them," Chief Researcher at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vladimir Vasilyev told the paper.

Apparently, African-Americans contributed to Michael Bloomberg’s failure in the primaries. The former New York mayor, who had infamously introduced his stop-and-frisk policing strategy, which chiefly impacted minorities, made a fatal error. Critics castigated the ex-mayor’s policy in debates and the newspapers as racist.

Biden’s victory in South Carolina is a major boost for the ex-vice president, demonstrating that it is too early to dismiss him. However, this won’t change the fact that for him, Sanders still remains the frontrunner in most nationwide opinion polls, the paper writes.

 

Kommersant: Russia’s Power Machines pulls out of JV with Siemens

Power Machines, a Russian energy systems machine-building company, hit by sanctions and owned by Alexei Mordashov, has decided to fully withdraw from its joint venture with Siemens Gas Turbine Technologies and sell its 35% share to the German industrial giant, sources told Kommersant business daily. The talks started in mid-January. Under the terms of the joint venture, Power Machines has an option once in three years to sell its stake to Siemens. This window lasts for three months (it opened on December 2, 2019 and closed on March 1).

The reason for this deal is that due to the shareholders’ agreement the companies cannot develop new technologies and sell products to Russia outside the JV’s framework. Meanwhile, Power Machines seeks to manufacture their own gas turbine. Besides, under the government’s demands, turbines created in a company where a major share belongs to a foreign shareholder cannot bid for a modernization program. Siemens’ share is not subject to an option, but Power Machines had offered to buy it, sources told the paper. Siemens can initiate an option to buy the share of Power Machines only on December 2, 2021. The price is yet unknown. Under the option’s terms, Siemens and Power Machines should agree on the price tag within two months. If the companies fail to do that, this effort will be carried out by an independent appraiser. A source close to Power Machines estimates the company’s share in the JV at $5 mln or $6 mln. After buying Power Machines’ share, Siemens should offer another Russian investor the opportunity to join the JV and this could be Gazprom Energy Holding.

The work of Siemens and Power Machines in the JV was no more constructive several years ago, the paper says. Amid the US sanctions, Power Machines have been seeking to block foreigners’ access to the Russian market.

 

Media: Fears grow that coronavirus could turn into new Spanish flu

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world, with Armenia, Ireland, Qatar, Ecuador and Chile confirming their first cases. A Russian national became the first person to contract the virus in Azerbaijan and deaths from the disease have been reported in the US, Thailand and Australia. The novel coronavirus has affected more than 60 countries. Although the World Health Organization has not yet declared the virus a pandemic, many specialists say that the spread of this disease has all signs of this, Izvestia writes.

"It’s highly likely that a pandemic will be declared with the novel coronavirus. In my view, it has already begun given the number of states registering COVID-19," epidemiologist Viktor Zuev told the paper. According to him, out of all countries hit by the novel coronavirus Italy has been the most irresponsible. Instead of taking emergency measures, its authorities failed to act and as a result, the country is ranked third in terms of the number of those infected.

On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered extra measures on reducing the impact of the novel coronavirus on the Russian economy, Vedomosti writes. This epidemic poses a serious risk to the nation’s GDP growth, the Bank of Russia said. The spread of COVID-19 could expand the slowdown in production activity that began in early 2020.

The coronavirus has turned into a major problem for the global economy, causing a panic among investors and triggering a collapse of stock markets. Against this background, oil prices are dropping and the ruble rate is decreasing. Experts note that a major threat to Russia’s economy is a decline in oil exports to China and a slump in oil prices. However, this economic blow could be mitigated by increasing domestic demand through raising salaries and budget expenses, analysts at the Bank of Russia said.

 

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