Izvestia: Trump-Kim summit kicks off in Hanoi

The long-awaited negotiations between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are beginning in the Vietnamese capital on February 27. Their first meeting in Singapore in June was rich in positive symbolism, but lacked any results, Izvestia writes.

Judging by Western media reports, Washington will put forward an offer to Pyongyang to open a liaison office (something like a prelude to a full-fledged embassy) in North Korea and sign a declaration to end the state of war (the Korean war formally ended with the signing of a ceasefire agreement). In return, North Korea is expected to promise to shut down the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon and fully dismantle the Sohae missile launch site. According to The Korea Times, Pyongyang and Washington have already agreed that experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will monitor the dismantling process.

"No other concessions have been made by North Korea. I believe this is due to Pyongyang’s desire to bargain for the most advantageous conditions for itself and get on the Americans’ nerves until the very last moment so that the DPRK leader himself could make some concessions at the meeting. The intrigue is precisely to the extent that Kim is ready for," Georgy Toloraya, Director of the Asian Strategy Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economics, told the paper.

There are two likely scenarios, according to Narushige Michishita, Director of Security and International Studies Program at the Tokyo-based National Institute for Defense Studies.

The first is the so-called "OK scenario," when Trump and Kim may agree on a step-by-step roadmap to denuclearize North Korea and improve bilateral ties, the expert told Izvestia. He is certain that Pyongyang will not abandon its nuclear weapons but will take steps like freezing the work of nuclear reactors and providing access to inspectors.

The second would potentially be a "bad peace" scenario, if the US leader decides to significantly reduce the number of US troops in South Korea in response to the denuclearization promise (currently there are 28,500 American soldiers there), the expert added.

 

Kommersant: Netanyahu visits Russia at height of election campaign

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold negotiations in Moscow on Wednesday. Netanyahu came to Russia at the height of the election campaign to Israel’s parliament (the Knesset). Against the backdrop of his party's falling approval rating and corruption charges hovering over his administration, foreign policy and security issues continue to be Netanyahu’s key trump cards, Kommersant writes.

During the talks, the Israeli premier plans to focus on 'Iranian aggression' in Syria. Netanyahu mentioned Russia’s assistance in withdrawing pro-Iranian forces from the border between Syria and Israel among his foreign policy achievements. However, Kommersant’s sources familiar with the situation say that these forces, including Hezbollah, still remain in southern Syria in close proximity to Israel.

Moscow has always refrained from giving clear preferences to anyone in the region, either Israel, Iran or Hezbollah. The latter sees no particular problems in relations between Russia and Israel. On the contrary, it is ready to derive some advantages from them for itself. Salem Zahran, head of the Media Focal Center in Beirut, told the paper that Moscow is the most preferable mediator for Hezbollah today. He is certain that relations between the Islamic movement and Russia will be developing in the future.

On the whole, officials and experts in Lebanon are skeptical about Israel’s threats against Iran and Hezbollah. According to Lebanese political scientist Hassan Jawad, Netanyahu thus seeks to win over public opinion abroad. By focusing on external threats, the Israeli leader diverts attention away from his domestic problems, namely, the declining ratings and corruption scandals, he added.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Damascus shifting from Moscow towards Tehran

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has paid a visit to Tehran where he met with Iran’s leaders. That was his first visit to Iran since the Syrian crisis began in 2011, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Judging by statements made by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran is opposed to plans to set up a buffer zone in northern Syria, which are actively being discussed between the US-led coalition, and the Russian and Turkish leaders. Khamenei described the creation of that buffer zone as a US conspiracy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier said in an interview with Vietnamese and Chinese TV channels "military officials are currently finalizing the format of the buffer zone on the border between Syria and Turkey, taking into account Damascus’ stance and considering Ankara’s interests to the greatest possible extent." He also noted that Russia’s military police could be deployed to that buffer zone.

There have been no complaints at the official level from either Damascus or Tehran about Moscow’s and Ankara’s plans regarding their joint actions in northeastern Syria. However, it is clear that there are certain hidden contradictions within the "Astana trio" and between Moscow and Damascus. After the Syrian air defense systems shot down Russia’s Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft in September 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad only once, telling him that Israel was to blame for the incident, the paper recalls.

"Tehran is consolidating its positions in Syria. I believe that remarks by Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the country’s Supreme National Security Council, who said that Iran had accomplished 90% of its tasks in Syria and that Israel failed to counter Tehran, are true," military expert Colonel General Yuri Netkachev told the paper.

He also noted that "the consolidation of Iran’s positions close to the border with Israel, let alone the creation of its military bases and facilities in Syria, is not quite in tune with Russia’s geopolitical interests in the region and efforts to strengthen peace in the Middle East."

"If Damascus begins to toe Tehran’s line, a new war between Syria and Israel will not be prevented, and Russia does not need that," the expert stressed.

 

Izvestia: Automaker to drive Opel production back to Russia

French car manufacturer Peugeot-Citroen (PSA Group) is exploring the possibility of bringing the Opel brand back to the Russian market, the company’s spokesperson in Russia Liliya Mokrousova told Izvestia. That could be local assembly or car imports.

"At the moment, the company is reviewing its calculations. Opel’s return to Russia is in line with the group’s overall strategy aimed at making this brand profitable," she said.

Meanwhile, Izvestia’s trade union source noted that Opel automobiles would be assembled at a joint venture facility of the PSA Group (70% of shares) and Mitsubishi (30%) located near the city of Kaluga (the European part of Russia). A less likely option is the assembly plant in St. Petersburg left over after the shutdown of the General Motors manufacturing facility.

The brand’s return to Russia could serve as a gauge pointing to a rise in the consumer sector’s activity and as a positive signal to other foreign companies, Valery Mironov, Deputy Director of the Center of Development Institute at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.

"The Russian economy’s upward trend will continue in 2019. Despite the insignificant overall growth, corporate revenues are rising due to the effect of a weak ruble and relatively high oil prices," he explained, adding that automotive industry has been one of the fastest growing sector of the national economy over the past two years.

For his part, VTB Capital analyst Vladimir Bespalov noted that the Russian car market is one of the largest in Europe, while the level of car ownership is relatively low. He too believes that the PSA Group’s decision can be a signal to other companies, such as Fiat Chrysler, which does not have its own assembly line in Russia.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump wants to ‘shrug off’ responsibility for rising gasoline prices, says expert

Brent crude oil prices fell more than $2 per barrel on Monday alone after US President Donald Trump’s tweet saying that oil prices "are getting too high." According to Trump, the "world cannot take a price hike" due to being "fragile".

In light of that, what oil price level can be considered acceptable for Washington? One can focus on those levels when Trump’s Twitter is ‘silent,’ Nezavisimaya Gazeta quotes Vasily Karpunin, Head of the Department of Stock Market Experts at BCS Broker, as saying. "The US president did not express dissatisfaction with oil prices when they were below $60 per barrel. That’s why we can conclude that these figures do not bother the US leader, but satisfy him," he said.

Meanwhile, some experts point to a contradictory situation in the US economy.

"Historically, it was assumed that the US is an oil importer and is interested in its low price. However, in recent years, everything has been changing rapidly. The United States is increasing production - of shale oil primarily - and is turning into a net exporter, yet it has remained the largest oil consumer. Therefore, the benefits of lower prices are far from obvious, considering the scale of the US economy, and require serious calculations," said Vadim Iosub, Senior Analyst at Alpari.

"The United States has recently become the world’s main oil producer, so surging oil prices are beneficial to American companies. At the same time, energy price hikes lead to rising gasoline prices, which is a negative factor for US citizens and Trump’s potential voter base. We believe that, by making such statements, Trump is trying, firstly, to show the voters that he sides with them and, secondly, shrug off any responsibility for growing prices," the paper quotes Freedom Finance analyst Alen Sabitov as saying.

 

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