MOSCOW, April 13. /TASS/. The persistence of the Middle East conflict through the summer could trigger the largest surge in global food inflation in recent years, Deputy Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Alexander Maslennikov said.

"The continuation of the Middle East crisis poses a threat to global food security. Experts forecast that if the current trajectory of the conflict persists through early summer, yields of major agricultural crops could decline by up to 50% due to fertilizer shortages, which would, in turn, trigger the largest surge in global food inflation in recent years," the statement said.

He also noted that the continuation of the Middle East crisis could increase the number of people facing hunger worldwide by 45 mln to a record 673 mln. "In the long term, total losses in global markets could amount to 0.5-2% of global GDP, equivalent to $0.7-2.2 trillion, while the number of people suffering from hunger worldwide could increase by 45 mln to a record 673 mln," he said, referring to negative factors affecting food security amid the evolving crisis around Iran.

According to Maslennikov, a shortage of physical food supplies could emerge by the Q3 or Q4 of 2026.