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Russia's Finance Ministry says oil prices may hover around $40-60 per barrel in 2017-2019

The Finance Ministry has released its main guidelines for Russia's 2017-2019 debt policy

© Yegor Aleyev/TASS

MOSCOW, February 6. /TASS/. Oil prices will be hovering around $40-60 per barrel in 2017-2019, according to the Finance Ministry’s Main guidelines for 2017-2019 debt policy released on Monday.

"The oil price dynamics will still be one of the key risks for the Russian economy over the projected period (of 2017-2019 - TASS). Given the global demand and supply trends oil prices are expected to hover around $40-60 per barrel in the mentioned period," the report said.

Net borrowings

Russia’s net borrowing amounted to 606.6 billion rubles ($10.3 bln) in 2016, according to the Guidelines for 2017-2019 debt policy.

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According to the document, of this amount 500 billion rubles ($8.5 bln) were borrowed on domestic market and 106.6 billion rubles ($1.8 bln) - on foreign market.

Russia’s Finance Ministry also says planned domestic borrowings for 2017-2019 are marginal.

According to the ministry's predictions, the net domestic borrowing will reach 1.1% of GDP in 2019 setting a record in the whole history of modern Russia:

"The volume of net external borrowings denominated in securities will take negative values: minus 21.2 bln rubles ($361 mln) in 2017, minus 60.1 ($1 bln) and minus 13.2 bln rubles ($225 mln) in 2018 and 2019, respectively. As for the <...> gross domestic borrowings, they, on the contrary, will increase from 1.2% of GDP in 2016 to 1.7% in 2019. This year (2019) net domestic borrowing will reach 1.1% of GDP [compared to 0.6% of GDP in 2016]. These values will be maximum for the whole history of modern Russia," the document says.

The Finance Ministry’s experts mark a trend towards accumulation of sufficient budget risks, related to possible worsening of terms of borrowings for Russia as a sovereign borrower and the growth of debt burden.

"Under the most negative scenario it may concern impossibility to attract loans in required volumes and on acceptable conditions," the document said.

Public bonds

Russia’s Finance Ministry projects a sustained demand for public bonds for 2017-2019, particularly due to structural excess liquidity, according to the Finance Ministry:

"A shift from the banking system to the structural excess liquidity is expected over the projected period (of 2017-2019 - TASS). An abundance of uncommitted resources, as well as the necessity for banks to fulfill the short-term liquidity norms will spur the demand for high quality, low risk financial assets. All those factors will be playing a key role in the creation of a sustained demand for public securities."

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