Cost of Russian gas, rising demand, situation in Europe: what we know
Hungary’s Prime Minister Peter Magyar said that his government does not consider Russian gas to be cheap and continues to look for alternative sources to import fuel at the most favorable prices
MOSCOW, November 11. /TASS/. Negotiations on future Russian gas supplies to Serbia and a long-term contract are ongoing. Moscow remains committed to all original agreements, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a meeting with Aleksandar Vulin, chairman of the supervisory board of the state-owned enterprise Srbijagas.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Peter Magyar said that his government does not consider Russian gas to be cheap and continues to look for alternative sources to import fuel at the most favorable prices.
TASS has compiled the key facts regarding the situation.
Statements by Magyar
- Contrary to statements made by Viktor Orban’s administration, the Hungarian government does not consider Russian gas to be cheap, stated Prime Minister Peter Magyar.
- He noted that the cost of gas supplied to the country is determined by several factors, with transit costs playing a significant role.
- According to him, Hungary continues to look for alternative sources to import fuel at the most favorable prices.
- In Magyar’s view, this provides the country with a stronger negotiating position.
- He emphasized that the government and the state-owned company MVM will seek to develop an energy mix that ensures reliable supplies at the most affordable prices possible.
Demand for Russian gas
- Over the first nine months of the year, European Union imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached approximately 16.5 billion cubic meters, compared with 15 billion cubic meters during the same period last year, according to TASS calculations based on data from the European think tank Bruegel.
- In particular, 1.1 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG were delivered to Europe in September--a 59% increase from August and a volume comparable to that of September of the previous year.
- Late last week, Gazprom reported growth in Russian pipeline gas supplies to Turkey.
- According to the company’s operational data, the volume of gas delivered to Turkish consumers during the first five days of November was nearly four times higher than the figures recorded for the same period in October or September.
- Furthermore, Gazprom’s total gas supplies to Turkey in October surged by 78% compared to September.
Talks with Serbia
- Negotiations on future Russian gas supplies to Serbia and a long-term contract are ongoing, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a meeting with Aleksandar Vulin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the state-owned enterprise Srbijagas.
- He noted that Russia remains committed to all existing and prior agreements.
- Earlier, Dejan Radivojevic, a representative of the Student List (which won elections in Serbia), stated that Belgrade should seek to sign a long-term hydrocarbon agreement with Russia once the current contract expires.
- Subsequently, in the middle of last week, Vulin announced that he was in Moscow to discuss extending the agreement for Russian gas supplies to Serbia.
- He mentioned that he had a series of meetings scheduled with high-ranking Russian government and economic officials, and that he intended to ask each of them to support the extension of the gas agreement.
Hungary’s purchases of Russian gas
- Currently, Hungary obtains the majority of its gas consumption from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline and its branches passing through Bulgaria and Serbia.
- Earlier, Peter Magyar stated that while Hungary intends to reduce its imports of Russian oil and gas, it acknowledges that it cannot phase them out in the near term.
- The election platform of the TISZA party, which won the parliamentary elections on April 12, included a commitment to eliminate energy dependence on Russia by 2035.
- Nevertheless, Budapest is obliged to comply with requirements from Brussels and prepare for the eventual cessation of supplies from Russia. On September 18, Hungary’s Minister of Economy and Energy, Istvan Kapitany, stated that the government would be prepared to end its use of Russian gas by October 2027--the deadline set by the European Union.
- He noted that discussions are underway with neighboring countries and companies that supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the market.
- Earlier, Anita Orban, Hungary’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated that the Hungarian government intends to increase its purchases of U.S. LNG.
- She expressed hope that a new agreement with the United States would create the necessary conditions for such purchases.
Situation in Europe
- Europe continues to withdraw gas from its underground storage facilities (UGS) at a record pace as the heating season begins, having already withdrawn 4.15 billion cubic meters, according to TASS calculations based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).
- Europe entered the heating season with record-low gas reserves.
- Just 13 days have passed since UGS occupancy peaked in the autumn (at 74.96%), yet the total volume withdrawn is already 2.1 times higher than the five-year average for this period.
- Consequently, in terms of net withdrawals, European countries have already used 6.6% of the 51.2 billion cubic meters they had injected over the summer in preparation for the cold weather.
- As of November 9, Europe’s UGS facilities were 72% full--17.26 percentage points below the five-year average for this date, and down from 82.55% a year earlier.
- Under European Commission requirements, EU member states are expected to ensure their storage facilities are 90% full between October 1 and December 1 each year.
- However, anticipating a very mild winter, the European Commission had been prepared to lower this target to 80%--a level Europe ultimately failed to achieve.
- The cost to the EU resulting from rising energy prices has reached €127 billion since the beginning of the year--up from €106 billion in mid-October--stated European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a technology conference in Brussels.
- Equinor CEO Anders Opedal stated at the ADIPEC conference that Europe’s gas reserves this year leave the continent more vulnerable during the winter period than in previous years.
- Europeans are feeling frustrated--and even desperate--due to high energy prices, which are putting pressure on their budgets and undermining the competitiveness of their companies, Magyar noted.
Gas prices in Europe
- The exchange price for gas in Europe has once again exceeded the $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters mark and continues to trade near these levels, according to data from the London-based ICE exchange and calculations by TASS.
- As of 01:00 p.m. Moscow time (10:00 a.m. GMT), December futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands were trading at $1,002.585 per 1,000 cubic meters.
- The price of gas crossed the $1,000 threshold at approximately 12:00 Moscow time (09:00 a.m. GMT).
- Gas prices were last above this level on November 5.
- Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller noted that prices had risen above $1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters. He further predicted that, in the event of a cold winter, prices in Europe could reach as high as $2,500.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that gas prices in Europe could potentially climb to $1,500 per 1,000 cubic meters.
EU ban on Russian gas purchases
- The EU has agreed to a complete ban on the import of LNG from Russia under long-term contracts, effective January 1, 2027.
- Supplies under short-term contracts were prohibited as of April 2026.
- Pipeline gas supplies are set to cease no later than September 30, 2027.
- In specific cases, these supplies may continue until November 1 for countries that have not yet managed to fill their storage facilities.