MOSCOW, October 9. /TASS/. Gas inventories in Europe’s underground storage facilities could plunge to 11% by the end of the heating season – matching the EU's remaining strategic reserves – if hit by Russian supply disruptions, a severe winter, and a global LNG deficit, according to an ENTSOG report reviewed by TASS.

Under the baseline assessment by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), EU storage levels are projected to stand at around 30% by the end of March 2027. However, a combination of adverse factors could drive this figure significantly lower.

A harsh winter, coupled with a complete halt in Russian pipeline gas supplies (which currently flow only via the TurkStream pipeline), would force Europe to seek additional LNG shipments.

"Under LNG Tight supply, demand response needs or potential uncovered demand increase to approximately 12%, equivalent to 437 TWh/40 bcm. In both cases, the aggregated EU UGS filling level falls to 11%, corresponding to the remaining strategic-storage reserves," the winter and summer outlook report stated.

Such a drawdown would complicate efforts to refill inventories to the 90% target mandated by the European Commission ahead of the following winter. If global LNG supplies remain tight, European storage could hit a record low of just 65% by late September 2027, down from 72% seen this year.

TASS previously reported that Europe risks entering the heating season with historically low reserves. EU nations might head into the traditional autumn-winter period with facilities filled to just 70-75% capacity, which would mark an all-time low for the start of the season.

Under European Commission regulations, EU member states must fill gas storage to 90% between October 1 and December 1 each year, with a 10% flexibility margin allowed for difficult market conditions. Consequently, net injections into European facilities must reach at least 68 billion cubic meters to meet the threshold for the 2026-2027 winter season. However, hoping for a mild winter, the European Commission is reportedly prepared to lower the mandatory target to 80% for the current year.