MOSCOW, October 7. /TASS/. Hungary risks finding itself in a situation "bordering on an energy catastrophe" if it is cut off from Russian gas supplies in 2027, Artyom Ilyinsky, a junior research fellow at the Department of European Political Studies at IMEMO RAS, wrote in a column for TASS.

"Technically, Hungary is capable of weaning itself off Russian gas by October 2027. However, this is possible only under the most optimistic forecast. Romanian production must reach planned targets on schedule and without disruption, pipelines must operate at peak capacity, and Budapest will have to cover the shortfall through emergency spot-market purchases. Only in this way can the country bridge the gap to 2028 – the launch date for alternative contracts with Western gas companies," Ilyinsky noted. "For the European Union itself, there is a threat that a member state could find itself in a situation bordering on an energy catastrophe if these bold and optimistic scenarios fail to materialize."

The expert explained that the delivery of major volumes under non-Russian gas agreements is scheduled to begin only in 2028, creating a critical time gap that "will prevent Hungary from navigating the pivotal year of 2027 smoothly."

"At the same time, the stance of external actors – specifically the United States – remains unclear. Hungary has already appealed to the US Congress to avoid the imposition of penalties mandated by the new US sanctions law targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas. Marton Hajdu, head of the Hungarian delegation, stated that he had asked the US side to support the country's transition efforts leading up to 2027 and to allow the continued use of Russian oil and gas for the time being. However, Washington has not yet officially announced its decision. This places Budapest in an awkward position, where the verdict of its transatlantic partner will determine whether the country can weather 2027 or not," Ilyinsky pointed out.

"Hungary has a chance to gradually diversify away from Russian gas. However, an attempt to do so before autumn 2027 – even if new contracts are signed 'here and now' – risks exposing the country to an energy shock. Judging by the cautious tone of the Energy Minister's projections, Budapest might not actually take this painful step," Ilyinsky added.

On September 18, Hungarian Minister of Economy and Energy Istvan Kapitany stated that Hungary's new government, led by Peter Magyar, would be ready to phase out Russian gas by October 2027, the deadline set by the European Union. In an interview with the Telex online news outlet, he noted that negotiations were underway with neighboring countries and LNG suppliers. According to the minister, the necessary cross-border pipeline infrastructure is already in place.

The previous administration under Viktor Orban had launched efforts to diversify supply sources and routes several years ago, citing national security reasons. In 2024, Hungary began purchasing small volumes of gas from Turkey and Azerbaijan, and announced plans to import Qatari LNG starting in 2027. Furthermore, Budapest intends to expand cooperation with Romania to purchase gas from the major Neptun Deep offshore field in the Black Sea. Hungary is connected by gas pipelines to all its neighboring countries except Slovenia.