VLADIVOSTOK, September 3. /TASS/. Russia’s oil production will fall modestly by the end of 2026, while exports remain stable, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).

He noted that Russia has the capacity to repair 100% of its refineries. The country is stepping up fuel imports to saturate the domestic market, drawing supplies from both neighboring countries and nations further abroad.

TASS has compiled the Deputy Prime Minister's key statements.

Situation on fuel market

The fuel supply situation on the Russian market has improved, with authorities noting positive changes this week: "We are constantly monitoring the regions and holding regular coordination meetings with local authorities," Novak said.

Things have gotten better due in part to refineries stepping up production: "A number of refineries have delivered extra volumes to the market."

The situation with diesel and jet fuel in Russia is currently stable, with minor deviations observed only in gasoline supplies: "As I said earlier, the situation with diesel and jet fuel is stable right now. There are some fluctuations and shortages in gasoline. The primary task in this area at present is to fully supply the market with motor gasoline."

The Russian government is observing minor fuel shortages at filling stations, particularly in the Siberian and Ural Federal Districts: "Overall, the situation has partially stabilized and improved over the past week, although we certainly still observe a minor deficit at gas stations, especially in the regions of the Siberian and Ural Federal Districts. This is purely a logistics issue," Novak said.

Authorities’ measures

Authorities intend to balance fuel supply and demand in Russia by increasing refinery output and drawing additional imported gasoline supplies: "We will continue to monitor and balance the market, relying not only on scaling up domestic production but also on securing additional supply volumes from foreign markets."

The government is discussing a reduction of the oil cutoff price within the fiscal rule, with one option being a decrease to $50 per barrel: "This figure is currently under discussion. Naturally, we will provide more precise details once all the figures proposed and reviewed by federal executive bodies are officially approved at a government meeting. Strategically, however, we do plan to lower the cutoff price to ensure a more stable budget, support its replenishment, and top up the National Wealth Fund."

This approach reduces the risk of global price volatility, making it an entirely correct path from a strategic planning perspective.

Russia is engaged in fuel imports to satisfy domestic demand, sourcing petroleum products from both neighboring countries and nations further abroad: "We are also working with companies to arrange fuel shipments from abroad, including both neighboring states and more distant foreign markets, focusing primarily on gasoline supplies."

Ensuring power grid security

Securing Russian electric power facilities remains a top priority for the government: "Our grid and energy companies work around the clock to maintain the security of key power facilities, such as large thermal power plants and major substations. This matter remains under the government’s close supervision and special control."

Refinery maintenance

Russia has sufficient capacity to repair 100% of its refineries: "Of course, for all repairs carried out on the basis of domestic technologies and domestic equipment, there are no issues whatsoever. Our companies and our industry fully provide the necessary resources and equipment."

Oil production

Russia’s oil production will decline slightly by the end of 2026 due to the underutilization of refineries caused by unscheduled maintenance:

"We are currently seeing a partial decline in production volumes compared to forecast figures, which is partly due to the underutilization of refineries due to unscheduled maintenance."

At the same time, exports remain stable, with export infrastructure capacity being utilized to its maximum potential: "Exports are stable, and the full capacity of our export infrastructure, which has been expanded in terms of maritime transport over the past few years, is being utilized to the maximum."

The decline in Russian oil production is a temporary phenomenon: "This is a temporary phenomenon, and in principle, as refineries return to operation and the situation stabilizes, production will increase."

OPEC's role and impact of Middle East conflict

OPEC plays a vital role in the global oil market, with the alliance accounts for a major share of global exports, though the Middle East conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to exert a strong influence on global markets: "We maintain that this [the closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- TASS] is actually a localized challenge that affects the supply and demand balance. Nevertheless, OPEC's role remains highly significant because the production volumes of OPEC member states are very large and account for a significant share of global exports. Therefore, it will undoubtedly continue to have a major impact on global markets.".